NFL New England Patriots Defense In-Depth Betting Analysis

The New England Patriots finished 8-9 last year and missed the playoffs for the second time in three seasons since Tom Brady left town. It was largely the offense’s fault that the Pats were a losing team in 2022 as the defense was very good. It should be again this year. Check out an in-depth look at Patriots’s defense this season may affect NFL betting odds.

2023 New England Patriots Defense In-Depth Betting Analysis | MyBookie NFL Preview

New England Patriots: 63rd season in the NFL
Owner: Robert Kraft
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Home Field: Gillette Stadium | Massachusetts, BO

Super Bowl Odds: +6500
Odds to win AFC: +3500
Odds to win AFC East: +800
Regular-season wins: 7.5
To make playoffs: No -300, yes +225

New England still had a shot to earn an AFC wild card spot entering Week 18 last year if it won in Buffalo but the Pats lost 35-23. It turns out the Pats wouldn’t have made it anyways because the Dolphins beat the Jets to earn that final spot. It marked just the fourth time in 23 seasons during Bill Belichick’s coaching tenure that the team missed postseason football. New England ended up losing five of its final seven games largely because QB Mac Jones regressed.

Belichick has given no hints that he will retire anytime soon but many believe his successor is already on the staff in linebackers coach Jerod Mayo, who turned down the chance to interview for head coaching jobs this winter and got an extension from the Pats.

Mayo — a linebacker who spent his eight-year NFL with the Patriots after they drafted him with the No. 10 overall pick in 2008 — has aspirations to be a head coach but deflected recently when asked if he’s received any assurances from owner Robert Kraft that could happen with the Patriots. Mayo’s ability to communicate and mentor has earned him the respect of his peers and players alike.

“We’ll see what happens,” said Mayo, who also apparently will add responsibilities with his new added title of assistant head coach. “Look, I’ll be working with the defense again, with the linebackers again. “But it’s pretty fluid as far as, let’s call it the classes [and] management stuff. … I’m excited to continue to learn new things — not only X’s and O’s, that’s only a small part of it. I’m just trying to be a sponge and learn as much as I can when I’m in those meetings I’m not normally in; I look forward to learning from Bill as far as all the off-the-field stuff.”

Few, if any, teams in the NFL place as high of a premium on employing a strong defensive backfield as the Patriots. Three-time Super Bowl champion and three-time All-Pro safety Devin McCourty will need to be replaced as he has retired. He played in 205 regular-season games for the franchise (fifth most in team history), starting all of them and totaling 982 tackles and 35 interceptions. The 35 picks, which are third most in franchise history behind Pro Football Hall of Famer Ty Law and Patriots Hall of Famer Raymond Clayborn, had been the most among active players.

Fellow safety Kyle Duggar is likely to take on a leadership role for New England’s defense in light of McCourty’s retirement. In 15 games played in 2022, the 27-year-old compiled 78 solo tackles (five, for loss,) eight passes-defensed, three interceptions — two of which were returned for touchdowns — and one fumble recovery for a score. Duggar has collected 234 tackles and seven interceptions in three NFL seasons.

The Patriots also retained standout cornerback Jonathan Jones and defensive back Jalen Mills this offseason. After having spent virtually all of his career as a slot corner, the Patriots decided to move Jones to the perimeter in 2022. He ended up playing a majority of his defensive snaps — 778 of 914 (85.1%) — split out wide. He finished with 68 tackles, three forced fumbles and four picks.

Matthew Judon leads the New England linebacking group. Since pairing with Belichick in New England, he’s been one of the game’s most productive edge rushers, with 28 sacks since 2021. Judon also had seven pass breakups last year.

New England focused on defense with its first three picks in this year’s draft in Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez at No. 17 overall, Georgia Tech pass-rusher Keion White at No. 46 and Sacramento State linebacker Marte Mapu at No. 76.

Gonzalez has played 277 snaps in press coverage over the past two seasons, fourth-most among Power 5 players in that span. From 2017 to 2021, New England played man at the highest rate in the NFL (62%). Last season that fell to 17th (42%). White’s 7.5 sacks last season were tied for fourth most in the ACC. The 6-3, 221-pound Mapu wasn’t invited to the combine but was one of the standout prospects at the Senior Bowl. He was the first Sacramento State player drafted since 2004 (Marko Cavka, OT selected 178th by the Jets.

That New England defense will be hugely tested Week 1 as the Patriots host defending NFC champion Philadelphia, which is a 5-point favorite.

NFL Expert Prediction

Patriots finish 7-10, miss playoffs again — largely due to the offense again

MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

New England Patriots Defense Positions

POS	Starter	Second
Left Defensive End	Lawrence Guy	DaMarcus Mitchell
Nose Tackle	Davon Godchaux	Christian Barmore
Right Defensive End	Deatrich Wise Jr.	Keion White
Left Inside Linebacker	Ja’Whaun Bentley	Mack Wilson Sr.
Right Inside Linebacker	Jahlani Tavai	Olakunle Fatukasi
Strongside Linebacker	Josh Uche	Ronnie Perkins
Weakside Linebacker	Matthew Judon	Anfernee Jennings
Right Cornerback	Christian Gonzalez	Myles Bryant
Left Cornerback	Jonathan Jones	Marcus Jones
Strong Safety	Kyle Dugger	Adrian Phillips
Free Safety	Jabrill Peppers	Jalen Mills

Bet New England Patriots to Win Super Bowl