The top four quarterbacks chosen in April’s draft are the favorites to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is the outright chalk while both Trey Lance and Justin Fields are second and third choice. Mac Jones, the fourth signal-caller taken in Round 1, is the fifth choice on the board. Check out an analysis of NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
NFL Betting Update – Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds Analysis
2020-2021 NFL Regular Season
- When: Sep. 9, 2020 – Jan. 9, 2021
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
- Trevor Lawrence +200
- Trey Lance +500
- Justin Fields +550
- Mac Jones +800
- Ja‘Marr Chase +1000
- Kyle Pitts +700
- Zach Wilson +750
- DeVonta Smith +1200
- Davis Mills +1600
- Najee Harris +600
- Jaylen Waddle +1800
- Javonte Williams +2800
- Kadarius Toney +4000
- Kyle Trask +4000
- Rashon Bateman +4000
- Rondale Moore +4000
- Terrace Marshall Jr. +4000
- Trey Sermon +2000
- Kellen Mond +5000
Among Lawrence, Lance, Fields, and Jones, which quarterback offers overlay odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year ?
Most agree that Trevor Lawrence has the most potential to put together a hall of fame career. But there are issues with backing Lawrence to win rookie of the year. First, Lawrence’s coach has never worked for a pro football franchise. Second, the Jaguars are bad in a lot more areas than just quarterback. Finally, the odds on TL are dreadful.
So are the odds on Lance and Fields considering neither figures to start. Andy Dalton plays for the Chicago Bears. He’s a good enough quarterback to hold the position from Week 1 to Week 18.
Jimmy Garoppolo will start for the 49ers. The Niners are paying Jimmy G. $23 million this season. He has no problem keeping the seat warm for Trey Lance, who requires at least one season, and maybe two, before starting at San Francisco.
If we draw a line through Lance, Fields, and Lawrence, that leaves us with Mac Jones. The surprising +800 makes Mac an overlay if you believe the award goes to a quarterback.
Jones should win the starting nod over Cam Newton. The Patriots have no choice but to start Jones after Newton’s performance in 2020. Not only that, but Alabama, where Jones played college ball, runs a system similar to Josh McDaniel’s in New England.
Which players, other than Jones, Fields, Lawrence, and Lance, at up to +2800 odds can win NFL Offensive Rooke of the Year?
Definitely take a look at San Francisco 49ers running back Trey Sermon. The Niners love to rush the football. Raheem Mostert, listed first on the depth chart, has a lot of talent.
But Mostert won’t get 20 carries a game. The carries will split with, possibly, Sermon getting the bulk of the carries.
Although his odds are low at +600, Najee Harris immediately becomes the Pittsburgh Steelers best offensive weapon. Harris has Levon Bell type skills. The Steelers haven’t found Bell’s replacement, a running back that catches everything thrown his way and that can also rush between the tackles and get the edge.
Miami wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is another player to keep in mind. Waddle reunites with Tua Tagovailoa. He has the best hands of any wideout from the draft, has breakaway speed, and runs routes like former Seattle great Steve Largent.
Is there a player at +4000 or higher odds who can win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Arizona Cardinals’ wide receiver Rondale Moore could have a massive season. The reason? Teams must double DeAndre Hopkins. Moore should be open more often than not, which means he’ll get more looks than he would on a different team.
Also, Kellen Mond is worth a look. Kirk Cousins must get hurt, or just play awful for Mond to start. But if Mond does get to start in Minnesota, he should rock it. The Vikings are loaded with offensive talent.