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One bad game does not a season make, yet many fans and pundits are quick to overreact based on one bad performance from a preseason Super Bowl favorite. That is what we saw in Week 1 after seeing a few of those favorite’s falter in games they were expected to win. As always tends to be the case, though, the cream tends to find a way to rise to the top, so I always try to reserve judgement on every team until we get a bigger test sample to look at. 2 weeks into the season, it is a little surprising that the Washington Commanders have a better record than the Buffalo Bills, but that is exactly where we are. Will it still be the same way after these two teams go head-to-head in Week 3? The bookies have the Bills in as a 6-point road favorite, with the point total for this one set at 43.

NFL 2023 Season Picks, Odds and Analysis for the Bills vs Commanders in Week 3 | NFL Odds, American Football NFL Lines | MyBookie Sportsbook

NFL Betting Odds: Bills -280, Commanders +220
When: Sunday, September 24 at 1 PM EST
Where: FedEx Field, Landover
TV: CBS

Why bet on the Buffalo Bills

Most fans and pundits are still of the opinion that the Buffalo Bills have a team capable of going all the way to the Super Bowl and ending this season as the champion. That belief took a bit of a hit in Week 1, though, with the Bills losing 22-16 to the Detroit Lions and looking like a team far removed from a championship run. What a difference a week makes, though, as Buffalo delivered a bit of a statement win in Week 2, thumping the Raiders by a score of 38-10. With that win, the Bills are now 9-2 SU in their last 11 games, but perhaps more importantly, they have won 8 of their last 8 meetings with the Commanders. The Bills also covered the spread in 8 of those 9 games, as well as in 5 of their last 6 versus the NFC East. The UNDER has hot in 8 of the last 9 road games for the Bills.

Buffalo Bills NFL Injuries

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Why bet on the Washington Commanders

The general consensus heading into the season was that this might be a long one for the Commanders, with most believing that they don’t have an elite level QB to help the cause. The jury is still very much out on that discussion, but you cannot knock the fact that this team has come out and won both of their games to this point. That said, the Buffalo Bills are a much tougher proposition than the teams that Washington have beaten this season, with both Arizona and Denver looking poor in the early going. With those 2 wins, the Commanders are now just 5-10 SU in the month of September. They are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings with teams from the AFC East. The Commanders are on a run that has seen each of their last 6 home games go UNDER then point total.

Washington Commanders NFL Injuries

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Expert Pick and Series Prediction

All the trends here seem to point to this game going UNDER the point total, which I think might be the best bat. I also have the Bills winning this one and covering the spread in the process.

Buffalo Bills 27 Washington Commanders 13