NFL Conference Championship 2024 Upset Picks to Consider

While there have been some surprises through the opening two rounds of the NFL playoffs, you have to say that the 4 teams left standing are not that surprising. MyBookie Sportsbook 2024 NFL Conference Championships Upset Picks

We have both #1 seeds still alive, but will we see those teams emerge from the Conference Championship games to move to the Super Bowl? The bookies seem to think that is a strong possibility, as they have the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers in as the favorites in their respective games this weekend. All 4 teams still standing are good in their own right, so this looks like a pretty level playing field to me. What we are going to do here is look at both games to see where making upset picks might be a good idea, so let’s dive right in.

AFC Conference Championship

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens

Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
When: Sunday, January 28, 3:00 PM
TV/Stream: CBS

The biggest knock on Lamar Jackson, the QB for the Baltimore Ravens, was that as good as he has been in the regular season, that success has not translated to the playoffs. He might be about to put that to rest after a very solid outing in the Divisional Round against the Houston Texans. This figures to be a much tougher task, though, as the Chiefs have made a habit of being in this position over the last 5 years or so. Despite that, it is the Ravens who are in as a 3 ½ point favorite.

The question now is whether we should be looking at the Chiefs for the upset pick, with their recent history suggesting that the obvious answer is yes. Still, we are going to dig a little deeper on the Chiefs to see how we could potentially play them as the underdog. Let’s start by looking at the obvious, which is their road record this season. They went a very solid 6-2 away from home in the regular season, while also winning on the road against the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round, so you have to say that this team is okay with going into hostile territory, making the SU pick here a good idea.

Head-to-head against the Ravens, the Chiefs are 5-5 in their last 10 meetings, so perhaps you might not be that comfortable with playing them to win SU. KC has covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 meetings with the Ravens, but it is what they do in the month of January, during the playoffs, that you really need to pay attention to. The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in the month of January, so again, we are looking at some pretty positive trends here.

We will have SU picks coming for both Conference Championship Games this week, but spoiler alert, I like the Chiefs to get the win here. This is familiar territory for them, and I believe they are better equipped to handle the pressure. If you don’t feel good about that pick, then you should definitely consider taking them against the spread.

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NFC Conference Championship

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
When: Sunday, January 28, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: FOX

The NFC game is one that was not totally unexpected. The 49ers started the season as the prohibitive favorite to win the Super Bowl, while the Detroit Lions were very much the sexy pick of a lot of bettors and pundits after finishing last season on a high and barely missing the playoffs. This is a very good matchup indeed, but as expected, it is the 49ers who are in as the favorite to win, favored by 7 points at the moment. Of course, being the favorite and playing at home is no guarantee of success, so should you consider playing the Detroit Lions? Let’s take a closer look.

Detroit had a very good season, going 12-5 to win the NFC North in rather comfortable fashion. Part of that success came on the road, where they went 6-3 on the season. Looking back at the end of the season, combined with the playoffs, the Lions are now on a 3-game win streak, but it is worth noting that all of those wins came at home. In fact, if you look at their last 4 road outings, they are just 2-2 SU, so I’m not so sure that playing them to win this weekend is the safest way to go, especially when you consider that they are 1-9 SU in their last 10 meetings with the 49ers.

So, it is fair to suggest that I am not totally sold in the idea of the Lions heading into San Francisco and coming away with the win, which means that we need t turn our attention to the point spread. Things there look a whole lot more optimistic. Let’s start by looking at their recent form. The Lions have been a solid pick, covering the spread in 5 of their last 6 games, but it is what they have done on the road that makes them even more of a convincing spread pick, as they have now covered in 8 of their last 10 games away from home. In those last 10 meetings with the 49ers, the Lions went 4-4-2 ATS, which suggests they were able to keep things close despite losing 9 of those games. If I was inclined to wager on the Lions this weekend, it would be against the spread.

Bet Lions vs 49ers to Win
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In Conclusion

I do believe there are a couple of upset picks we can play this weekend, starting with the Chiefs potentially heading into Baltimore and getting the win. Again, if you want to play it a little bit safer, I would take KC against the spread at +3 ½. In the other game, I do think the 49ers will come away with the win, but will they cover the spread? I think that is the bigger question, as I do believe there is a very solid chance that the Lions can keep the game close all the way to the end.

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