Defense vs Offense in Super Bowl LVIII: Let’s Analyze the 49ers vs Chiefs

 

Previous Betting News

Most of the real meaty Super Bowl prop bets won’t have posted lines until the week before the game. That’s when the media can see who is practicing and who is healthy, and it’s when the majority of the money starts coming in.

But you don’t have to wait until those lines have been posted to start formulating your Super Bowl betting strategy. Nor should you wait, since information gathering is the most important part of football wagering. This first and most important step in knowing what lines are exploitable begins now.

It’s also important to note that the majority of sports betting involves the offense. So bettors and bookmakers alike spend most of their attention there. But if you go defense, you are more likely to find more lines that are betting-friendly.

 

Offense Leads to Defensive Numbers

One of the most common types of defensive prop bets is an over/under on the number of tackles + assists for a particular player. For defensive lineman and defensive backs, this number is usually lower, while for linebackers, it is higher.

Those numbers also fluctuate depending on the type of offense a team plays. For example, the Eagles run the football 33 times per game, the most in the NFL. The Chiefs run the ball just 24 times per game, good for the 21st in the NFL.

For defensive prop bets, what that tells you is that the Chiefs linebackers will be more involved in tackling than the Eagles linebackers. There are, on average, nine more opportunities for Chiefs linebackers to get tackles.

Kansas City throws the ball 38 times per game, to just 30 for the Eagles. That means that the Eagles on average, will have eight more chances to get sacks, interceptions, and pass breakups.

 

Where Are the Targets?

The Chiefs don’t run as much as the Eagles, and that may suppress the Eagles tackle numbers at the linebacker position. But consider where Patrick Mahomes likes to throw the football. Travis Kelce led all tight ends this season with 110 catches on 152 targets.

That means that while Philadelphia’s best run-defending linebackers might see their tackle numbers get lower, their best coverage linebackers are going to be on the field and involved in the play for most of the 60 minutes.

And it’s not just Kelce. Tight ends Jody Fortson and Noah Gray combined for another 37 catches this season on 47 targets.

For the Eagles, their top targeted players are DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown. Tight end Dallas Goedert is a distant third. So for a good Chiefs defensive prop bet, consider tackle props for their cornerbacks.

 

When Do Teams Score?

Scoring bands are a popular prop bet, and accurately picking when the defense is most likely to hold the opponent can be very profitable.

Both the Eagles and Chiefs are top-five in first-quarter scoring, but at less than six points per game. That jumps up to 12 points for the Eagles in the second quarter and 10 points for the Chiefs. But in the third quarter, the Eagles drop all the way to less than five points per game.

If you are looking for a quarter for the Kansas City defense to shine, the third quarter is it.

 

 

Previous Betting News

Defense wins championships, as the saying goes. But of course, when it comes to excitement, ratings, the MVP front-runners, and seemingly every rule change over the last 20 years, the NFL much prefers offense over defense.

Has the league’s love of high scores and quarterbacks who can throw the ball all over the field shifted the balance in the Super Bowl?

Does defense really still win championships, or does a great offense overcome that in today’s NFL? Place your Super Bowl Bets today and find out on Sunday…

 

2023 Super Bowl Matchups with Top Scoring Defense vs Top Scoring Offense

Super Bowl LI

The last time the top-scoring offense in the league and the top-scoring defense met in the Super Bowl was when the Falcons and Patriots squared off. Atlanta had Matt Ryan at quarterback, the league’s MVP, and the highest-scoring offense in the NFL at 33.8 points per game.

Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 19 rushing touchdowns, and All-Pro Julio Jones was in the prime of his career, And heading into the Super Bowl, the Falcons had won six straight, averaging 39 points per game.

We all remember what happened on Super Bowl Sunday. That great offense got out to a great start, and went up on the best defense in the league, 28-3. But the New England defense finally stiffened, and they outscored Atlanta 19-0 in the fourth quarter, and eventually won in overtime.

Advantage defense.

 

Super Bowl XLVIII

Three years earlier, we had another No. 1 scoring offense vs. No. 1 scoring defense meeting in the Super Bowl. It was the Denver Broncos, who had MVP Peyton Manning and his record-setting season of 55 touchdown passes and 5,477 yards. The 37.9 points per game averaged by the Broncos was also an NFL record.

On the other side was the Legion of Boom, who allowed just 14.4 points per game. Bobby Wagner, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, and Richard Sherman were at the height of their powers in 2013, and they were at their very best in that Super Bowl.

The Broncos didn’t score fewer than 20 points in any game before the Super Bowl, and three times they scored more than 50. But Seattle destroyed the Broncos that day at the Meadowlands, 43-8.

Huge advantage defense.

 

Super Bowl XXV

We have to go back all the way to the 1990 season to find the last time the No. 1 scoring offense and the No. 1 scoring defense did battle in the Super Bowl. The Buffalo Bills had their no-huddle offense that averaged 26.8 points per game.

That Bills team was the highest-scoring team that season, but doesn’t even rank in the top 100 of NFL teams all-time. So it wasn’t your typical high-powered offense. The Giants, however, were everything you wanted in a great defense. 

New York allowed just 13.2 points per game in 1990, and seven times they held their opponent to less than 10 points, including a 31-3 win over the Chicago Bears in the playoffs. And they finished the job in the Super Bowl, winning 20-19 over the Bills.

Advantage defense.

 

 

Previous Betting News

For years now, we have heard people talk about how defense wins championships. While a team does usually need to be defensively sound to make a deep playoff run, the ones who go on to win the Super Bowl usually have a balanced defense and attack. More often than not, the teams that win the Super Bowl usually have an elite QB at the helm. Yes, there are some exceptions to the rule, but those tend to be few and far between. We have a great QB matchup this year, with the GOAT Tom Brady going against Patrick Mahomes, a QB that might one day steal the GOAT title from Brady. For the purposes of this piece, we are going to forget about Mahomes and instead focus on the Buccaneers offense and how they might fare against the Chiefs D. Let’s get to it so you can get ready to make your bets against their Super Bowl odds as the big game rapidly approaches.

 

Tampa Bay’s Offense Vs Kansas City Defense: What could happen?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense

Going back to the regular season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have now won 7 straight games after going through a patch where they did not look anything like a playoff contender, never mind a Super Bowl champion. The turnaround began when the offense got hot, and no team has been better during the past couple of months. The Bucs are now averaging just shy of 31 PPG this season, although it is worth noting that 5 of their 7 wins came against teams with losing record. That aside, they also beat New Orleans and Green Bay on the road to the Super Bowl, scoring 30 and 31 points, respectively.

During the regular season, the offense averaged 289.1 YPG through the air and 94.9 YPG on the ground. While the numbers have dipped in the passing side of things through the postseason, the running game stats have increased to 115 YPG in the playoffs.

 

Kansas City Chiefs Defense

Let’s be honest, it is the Kansas City Chiefs offense that gets all the love, and for very good reason. If you remember, though, the defense began to tighten up in the closing weeks of last season and ended up playing a major role in the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl. They look to be doing that again this season, as they were giving up 23 PPG in the regular season and have given up 20.5 PPG in the postseason against a pair of very good offensive teams in the Cleveland Browns and the Buffalo Bills.

They are allowing just 215 YPG through the air this postseason, mainly because they are a team that loves to blitz and get pressure on the QB. The Chiefs also have an aggressive safety group and have a pair of picks this postseason.

 

What Might Happen?

After watching Tom Brady throw 3 picks against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game, you can bet that the Chiefs D is going to go after him early and often. That might get taken away if the Bucs can establish the run game, but that is a big if. Brady needs to protect the football and not give Mahomes short fields to work with, or this thing could be over early.

 

 

Previous Betting News

The Super Bowl is the greatest day for American sports bettors because gamblers can make more prop bets on the Super Bowl than on any other NFL game. Super Bowl LVI is no different.

Check out odds, analysis, and free picks for Touchdowns Super Bowl Prop Odds and Scoring Super Bowl Prop Odds.

 

2022 Super Bowl Touchdowns and Touchdowns Scorer Props

Super Bowl LVI

• When: Sunday, Feb. 13
• Where: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
• TV/Streaming: NBC / Peacock

Super Bowl LVI Total Touchdowns

• Over 5.5 touchdowns -115
• Under 5.5 touchdowns -115

It’s difficult seeing either team not scoring at least 2 touchdowns. So we’re up to 4 if both the Bengals and Rams score 2 TDs each.

One team should get at least 21 points on 3 touchdowns. Now we’re up to five. If we think the score ends 27-24, no matter who you believe wins, that’s 6 TDs and 3 field goals. So let’s go with 3 TDs each, which means over is the play.

Super Bowl Touchdowns Pick: Over

 

Super Bowl LVI Longest Touchdown

• Over 42.5 yards -115
• Under 42.5 yards -115

Both teams have burners. Odell Beckham Jr. and Ja’Marr Chase can catch a pass and go for over 43 yards in the blink of an eye.

Another reason to like over is because of Joe Mixon’s pass-catching ability. Cincinnati’s running back caught 42 passes for 314 yards. Mixon averaged just 7 yards per catch. But if he finds space in the open field, he’s got enough moves and enough speed to catch it on his own 30 and take it the distance.

Super Bowl Touchdowns Pick: Over

 

Super Bowl LVI Shortest Touchdown

• Under 1.5 yards -130
• Over 1.5 yards +100

The odds imply a quarterback sneak or some other TD happens near the goal line. That doesn’t always occur in a Super Bowl.

At +100, over 1.5 yards presents an overlay. Both teams are great at getting the ball into the end zone once they step into the red zone. So the chance of over 1.5 yards being the shortest touchdown should be closer to -115 than +100.

Super Bowl Touchdowns Pick: Over

 

Player to Score First TD – QB TD Passes Don’t Count

It’s all about fair odds. Joe Mixon offers terrific odds at +650. Mixon can catch for a TD or rush for a TD. So he’s a good play at the odds.

Tee Higgins is a terrific play at +1000. If Ramsey is on Chase, Burrow will look for Higgins in the red zone.

If you like the Rams to score the first TD, look to back Odell Beckham Jr. before Cooper Kupp. Odell’s odds are better and the Bengals will be looking to stop Kupp in the red zone.

Top Pick: Joe Mixon +650

Second Pick: Tee Higgins +1000

 

To Score a TD at Anytime

• Cooper Kupp yes -240
• Cooper Kupp no +175

Cooper Kupp, the NFL Offensive Player of the Year, should have a decent Super Bowl. But that doesn’t mean he gets a TD. Sean McVay figures to use Odell Beckham Jr. more than he has at any time during the season.

Both are difficult to cover. But Cooper should demand more attention while Odell could be left on an island. Taking a shot on “no” make sense.

Super Bowl Touchdowns Pick: No

 

To Score a TD at Anytime

• Ja’Marr Chase yes -130
• Ja’Marr Chase no +100

We’ve got to back “no”. If Ramsey is on Chase, Ja’Marr become more of a decoy. So “no” is the play.

Super Bowl Touchdowns Pick: No

 

To Score a TD at Anytime

• Odell Beckham Jr. yes -120
• Odell Beckham Jr. no -110

Yes for sure. Odell Beckham Jr. is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He gives Stafford a down the field target. Cooper Kupp is more of a possession receiver. So Odell figures to get loose for at least 1 TD or to beat his man once the Rams get into the red zone.

Super Bowl Touchdowns Pick: Yes

 

 

Previous Betting News

It’s the common question going around for Super Bowl 50, there is the strong defense of the Denver Broncos; a defense that has suffocated both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots in the postseason. A defense that is stingy when it comes to giving up touchdowns.

That defense will face the best offense in the National Football League. Some would argue when healthy the Patriots had a better scoring attack, but the Panthers statistically have proven all season how strong their offense is. The question is – which should bettors back when betting at MyBookie.ag Online Sportsbook for Super Bowl 50?

 

Solid Defense vs. Strong Attack, What Should SB50 Bettors Pick?

Well, we have diagnosed this game from head to toe all week long. You have Cam Newton the Most Valuable Player winner against the hottest defensive menace in the game. Von Miller has wrecked up opposing team’s plans all season long. The running game for Carolina is suspect, so that’s a little bit of a down side for backing the offense. The passing game for Carolina, and the quarterback’s ability to use his legs are the positives. Look for this to be a battle of wills between the Carolina offense and the Denver defense.

 

Denver Defense May Struggle with Quickness

In the end, we have been going with the Carolina Panthers for two weeks now. The combination of Cam Newton’s big arm, and quick legs seem to outweigh Von Miller and his defensive line. The defensive backfield of the Denver Broncos will have a tough time with the quickness of the Carolina receiving core. Ted Ginn Jr has had an excellent season, and he seems to be a wild card in this game. When he is in the game, the Denver defense will need to keep their eye on him.

 

Bet on the Carolina Panthers for Super Bowl 50

So a Solid Defense against a Strong Offensive Attack – which will end up winning? The bet has got to go with the Carolina offense. The Carolina Panthers are going to win Super Bowl 50, and get the NFC back on the board. A season ago the AFC came away with a thrilling win at the end of the game when the Patriots downed the Seahawks. Look for this to be a competitive Super Bowl, but the winner of Super Bowl 50 is going to be Cam Newton and his strong arm and massive, but fast legs. The offensive attack of the Carolina Panthers leads the way for 27 points and wins 27-20 over the Denver Broncos.

 

Super Bowl 50 Pick & Prediction

The bet we are going to recommend to you is the Carolina Panthers -6 at MyBookie.ag over the Denver Broncos. If you got the Panthers at -3.5 when it first came out, congratulations and keep that bet. Best of luck, and enjoy Super Bowl 50!

 

 

Previous Betting News

Following their scrappy NFL lines win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Divisional Round, Denver’s quarterback Peyton Manning was keen to give heaps of praise and credit to the Broncos defense for pushing the team this far in the playoffs. And looking at the manner in which the Broncos have stifled down a good number of opponents to reach into the AFC Championship, it’s hard to argue against Manning’s words.

Unfortunately for the Broncos, they will be facing arguably their biggest test of the season this week, an AF Championship encounter against the explosive Tom Brady-led New England offense. The last time the two teams met, the Patriots had a plethora of injuries in their squad, but still managed to put up 24 points against Denver in Mile High—a game that ended 30-24 in favor of the Broncos. With Brady coming into this game with a much healthier and motivated squad that cruised its way past Kansas City’s mean defense, the Broncos will definitely have the work cut out for them in the NFL lines.

Can the Broncos solid D use the mantra of Defense wins Championships to collect the all-important NFL odds win in this Championship encounter, or will the Patriots offense prove too much for Denver? Read on below to find out in this Denver defense AFC Championship overview.

 

Patriots vs Broncos: NFL Betting Info and TV

What: New England Patriots (12-4) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
When: Sunday, January 24, 2016
Kickoff: 3:05 PM ET
Where: Denver, CO
Stadium: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -163 vs Denver +143
Game Total: 44.5
Watch: CBS

 

Has the Defense Favored Denver’s NFL Betting Lines

You’ve probably read this a thousand times this postseason, but that doesn’t make it any less important—the Broncos led the NFL in the regular season with a #1 ranked defense, giving up just 4,530 yards (averaging at 283.1 YPG) and 18.5 PPG, all those being the best defensive marks in the NFL. That, in essence, is the reason Denver’s defense finished No. 1 in both overall and weighted DVOA this season.

In addition, Denver’s pass rush unit finished the regular season with the most sacks (52). Not to mention, the Broncos have a solid secondary led by Pro Bowl defenseman Aqib Talib, who could shut down the likes of Julian Edelman on man-to-man coverage. Meanwhile, Denver’s solid defenders like DeMarcus Ware, Sylvester Williams, Antonio Smith, Derek Wolfe, Malik Johnson and Von Miller are extremely-talented to make life difficult for Brady and his O-line, especially in the pocket.

 

Been There, Done That…

When the Broncos hosted the Patriots in Week 12 (Nov. 29, 2015), they did so as 2.5-point underdogs, yet still managed to claim a 6-point win. A case can rightfully be made about New England’s health at the time, but the fact that the Broncos won with a young and inexperienced Brock Osweiler at QB negates any excuses that can be made by New England’s fans. The bottom line is that an Osweiler-led team beat the Patriots in Mile high. And if the Broncos beat the Pats with Osweiler at QB, why can’t they win and cover here as underdogs with a more-proven Peyton Manning at QB?

 

Mile High Means Better Denver Defense

Needless to say, home-field advantage always plays a crucial role in such high-profile games. The Broncos are not only 16-4 SU in their last 20 games at Mile High, but their defense has been playing better at home—allowing just 17.67 PPG in their last three home games compared to their average of 18.35 PPG allowed in all their 17 games this season (including the game against Pittsburgh). This is something you can count on the Broncos to capitalize on.

 

Final Remarks

Whereas the Patriots have an offense that can be difficult to contain, the Broncos have perfected their art of playing solid defense and that isn’t going to change just because they are playing Brady and Co. Simply put, if there is any defense can disrupt the Patriots’ offensive rhythm, it’s the Broncos and their formidable pass rushers. Added to their well-known strength when playing at home, I am strongly convinced that you won’t be disappointed by trusting on Denver’s defense to contain the Pats for an ATS win for the Broncos, if not an outright win altogether.

 

 

Previous Betting News

Much has been documented about how great defenses win championships, but without a good offense, winning games becomes virtually impossible, especially when you are playing against a great attacking team. That is the predicament the iffy Denver offense (with excellent defense) will have to deal with this Sunday when the Broncos host the New England Patriots, who are irrefutably the best offensive team in the AFC. As we prepare for this mouthwatering encounter that features arch-rivals Tom Brady and Peyton Manning going against each other, let’s take a succinct look at what the Manning-led Broncos offense offers in the AFC Championship Game Odds.

 

Denver vs New England: Game, TV and NFL Betting Info

What: New England Patriots (12-4) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
When: Sunday, January 24, 2016
Kickoff: 3:05 PM ET
Where: Denver, CO
Stadium: Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -163 vs Denver +143
Game Total: 44.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports 
Listen: New England vs Denver

 

Denver Got the Job Done Against Pittsburgh

It wasn’t easy or pretty, but Denver played well enough in the Divisional Round against Pittsburgh to claim a 23-16 win on Sunday. Peyton Manning, playing in his first start since November 15, was far from fluid, throwing for just 222 yards with no touchdowns—his third game in a row (including two starts) that he failed to throw a touchdown pass.

Manning, however, made a couple of big plays that ultimately helped to win the game, including the deep 31-yard pass to Bennie Fowler on third-and-12, which helped set up a touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas also performed decently against Pittsburgh, something they’ll be hoping to replicate this week. Sanders, in particular, looked splendid against the Steelers, leading Denver with five catches for 85 yards. Notably, he also had a game-high 113 yards in the Week 12 home win over New England, a game that featured backup quarterback Brock Osweiler. If Manning can find his footing this Sunday, he should be able to enjoy the trustworthy services of his receivers, of course led by Sanders and Thomas.

Gary Kubiak’s Run-oriented Offense Has Tons of Value

With both Manning and Osweiler not being able to do much with their hands this season, coach Kubiak’s run-heavy offense has proved very pivotal for the team. And from the looks of things, the Broncos will probably want to run the ball more once again, given the suspicious nature of the team’s passing game.

Against the Steelers, running back C.J. Anderson performed strongly, leading the team with 72 yards and a score on 15 carries, while also scoring a two-point conversion. In the 30-24 win against New England in Week 12, Anderson was also big for his team, torching the Patriots for a 51-yard game-winning touchdown in overtime. That touchdown culminated a splendid performance for the star running back, who finished the game with 113 yards and two TDs on just 15 carries. It therefore goes without saying that Anderson and his fellow runners will be crucial in this week’s game against Denver.

 

Overall Outlook: The Good and The Bad

Whereas it is concerning that Denver finished the regular season with an offense that ranked at #16 in efficiency, the exact numbers on the ground aren’t that bad. Finishing the regular season with 5,688 total yards (averaging at 355.5 YPG) and 24.3 PPG scoring is good enough to win them this AFC Championship encounter, especially if their defense comes up big. Personally, I am yet to be impressed with the performance of Manning this season, in spite of the fact that he’s been able to lead his team to two crucial game-winning drives in his last two games.

But then again, Osweiler is a good backup and he could be used in this game in case Manning continues to struggle. Moreover, Kubiak will most-certainly try to develop a good rushing game early on here, with Anderson (720 yards, 5 TDs in the regular season) and fellow RB Ronnie Hillman (863 yards, 7 TDs) being used extensively. With such, the Broncos should be able to have a balanced attacking unit, giving them an advantage over New England’s one-sided passing attack that lacks a running game. Along with the support of Denver’s defense, a potential victory could be in the offing for the underrated Broncos team that will be importantly playing in their homely Sports Authority Field in Denver.