Divisional Round AFC Picks, Betting Analysis

The Wild Card Round is over, and we have moved from 14 teams down to 8. As you would expect from the playoffs, there were surprises along the way, perhaps none bigger than the Jacksonville Jaguars coming from 27 points down to beat the LA Chargers. The New York Giants going into Minnesota and getting the win was also a bit of a surprise, albeit to a lesser extent. The Divisional Round matchups are all set, with 4 games coming this weekend that will decide which 4 teams move into the Conference Championship Round. We are going to look at the NFL Playoffs Odds options for all 4 games, but let’s get things started with the AFC matchups.

NFL Playoffs Betting Analysis and Predictions for Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills | AFC Divisional Round 2023

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

The action begins on Saturday with a matchup that very few would have predicted a month or so ago. The Jaguars were floundering and looked to be on the way out, but they rallied in a big way, winning 5 in a row to win the division and take the #4 seed. That was not their biggest rally, though, as they came from 27-0 down to the Chargers to win 31-30 in an absolute thriller. The Chiefs also ended the season on a 5-game winning streak, taking the #1 seed in controversial fashion after the suspension of the Bills Bengals game in Week 17.

Given that they are the top seed and at home, it is perhaps not that surprising to see the Chiefs in as an 8 ½ pint favorite over the Jaguars. It has been a bit of a fairytale season for Jacksonville, but I think it all comes to an end this weekend. While I think the Chiefs will win at odds of -400, I am perhaps not as convinced that they will cover. Jacksonville has covered in 5 of their last 6 games and might well be worth taking a look at here.

4 of the last 5 meetings between these two have gone UNDER, so I’ll be playing the UNDER 52 points on Saturday.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

If we are being totally honest, we all wanted to see this matchup after their Week 17 game ended up being suspended. The Bengals felt like they were handed a bit of a raw deal in the way in which the league dealt with the issue, as they had the lead in that game at the time Damar Hamlin went down. The Bengals ended the season on an 8-game win streak and got past the Ravens in a tight game in the Divisional Round. Despite all of that, they are in as a 3-point underdog on Sunday.

The Bills looked to be on their way to the #1 seed, winning 7 in a row to close out the regular season. They, too, were affected by the game suspension, but they still get home field advantage here after beating the Miami Dolphins in a game that was much closer than expected.

The Bengals have covered in 12 of their last 15 games, which is why I think we will see them cover in this one, which could end up going down to who has the ball last. In games versus the NFC North, the Bills have seen the UNDER hit in 9 of the last 10, so let’s take the UNDER 49 in this one.

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NFL 2022-23 Betting Projections for the AFC Championships Odds Favorites

It’s safe to assume that a good number of teams in the AFC already know their fate, at least in part, with only one regular-season game left. Five teams are still in the playoff limbo, while five other teams have officially established a spot heading into the postseason. We’ve previously examined the AFC’s divisions, and now we’ll project which team has the best chance of taking home the conference championship. Sorry if your team isn’t mentioned below, you’re too low down the list of AFC Conference Championship Odds, and we don’t see you beating the oddsmakers either!

Kansas City Chiefs 13-3 (+170)

Kansas City leapfrogged the Buffalo Bills for the number one seed in the AFC after a 27-24 win over the Denver Broncos, while Buffalo’s game was suspended after a gruesome injury. Rightfully so, the Chiefs are the favorite to take home the conference championship thanks to an offense that paces the league in points (29.1ppg) and yards (417.7ypg).

The Chiefs’ defensive unit on the other hand, has struggled, giving up 22.3 points per game and a generous 223.5 yards through the air. Additionally, the Chiefs have been a sure bet to lose against the spread going 1-7-1 ATS over their last nine contests. Patrick Mahomes looks like the NFL MVP, leading the league in passing touchdowns (40) and yards (5,048). Kansas City is a good bet to get to the Conference Championship.

Buffalo Bills 12-3 (+190)

After Damar Hamlin’s horrible injury forced the suspension of their game against the Bengals, the Buffalo Bills were shaken. As a probable second seed in the AFC, Mybookie’s oddsmakers have since increased the AFC championship odds to +190. Whatever the case, the Bills have one of the strongest offensive and defensive lineups in the NFL.

The Bills average 28.0 points per game on offense and only 17.5 points per game on defense. Josh Allen, who has scored 32 passing touchdowns and seven on the ground, is one of the league’s most exciting quarterbacks. The Bills, who play in chilly temperatures where they are an amazing 6-1 on the year, have arguably the biggest home-field advantage. We like the Buffalo Bills to potentially win it all.

Cincinnati Bengals 11-4 (+400)

In 2021, the Cincinnati Bengals appeared to be serious Super Bowl contenders, and they are once again competing at the top of the AFC. They are basically in the same position as they were last year, fighting for the AFC North title and heating up at the right time. In addition, to having a plethora of weapons on offense, the defense has shown up to holding opponents to a fourth-best 106.4 yards on the ground.

Additionally, the Bengals have arguably been the hottest team in the NFL. They have covered nine of their last ten games against the spread and own a seven-game winning streak. They are also one of the few teams to take down the Chiefs. At +400 they are a team to watch to make another run for the AFC title.

Los Angeles Chargers 10-6 (+1200)

The Chargers locked up the No. 6 seed in the AFC and secured their spot in the postseason, and they are starting to get hot. In addition to four straight contests, the Chargers have all the offensive weapons necessary to contend for the AFC title.

They’ll need to improve their defensive play if they want to compete with teams like the top AFC contenders. Given that they give up more than 140 yards a game, the Chargers’ run defense is among the worst in the league.

Baltimore Ravens 10-6 (+1600)

The Baltimore Ravens have secured another postseason berth, but advancing is solely up to Lamar Jackson’s injury status. Baltimore owns a stout defense that holds opponents to 18 points per game, but their offense has been stagnant without Lamar Jackson under center.

Jackson’s readiness for the regular-season finale in Cincinnati, which may be for the AFC North championship, is still unknown to the Ravens. After sustaining a knee injury against the Broncos on December 4, Jackson has missed five straight games. We recommend staying away from the Ravens.

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NFL Betting | AFC Divisional Round Matches Prediction

The Wild Card Weekend, which was expanded to 6 games this season, proved to be a real success, as we saw some great football, not to mention a few surprises. It’s tough to say whether what we saw will have an impact on the playoffs as a whole, but there are a couple of teams still alive that are more than a little surprising. Over the next few days, we are going to take a look at the Divisional Round and try to break down the 4 games that are coming this weekend. The easiest way to do that is to go conference by conference, so let’s get the ball rolling with the AFC Divisional Round and then you can make your bets against their NFL odds.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-2 ½) – Saturday

You could make a very solid argument that this is the best game of the Divisional Round, as it features a pair of teams who are about as hot as it gets right now. At 6-5, the Baltimore Ravens looked to be in real trouble. Given the strength of the AFC this season, they really needed to win out, which they did, winning 5 in a row to close out the regular season. There were still some doubts about this team and their ability to get the job done in the playoffs after early exits in each of the last 2 seasons. They put that to bed, coming back from an early 10-point deficit to get the win on the road against the Tennessee Titans.

We all though that the Buffalo Bills had a shot at taking over the AFC East this season, but I don’t think anyone saw them winning it in the style that they did. The Bills went 13-3 on the season and got there by winning 6 in a row to end the regular season. They made it 7-straight with a gritty 27-24 win over the Indianapolis Colts in the Wild Card. There are a lot of reasons why this team is so good, but it all starts with QB Josh Allen and the partnership he has forged with Stefon Diggs.

The Ravens have won 4 of their last 5 against Buffalo, and while this Bills team is much better than anything we have seen from them in years, I have a feeling that the Ravens are maybe now the team to beat in the AFC. I am going with the slight upset in this one.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-10)

Heading into the Wild Card Weekend, you had a Browns team unable to practice and without their head coach, as well as some key players, unable to play due to COVID. It looked like a recipe for disaster, but they took advantage of some serious errors by the Pittsburgh Steelers to take a 28-0 first quarter lead. While they had some nervy moments in the second half, the Browns were great value for their 48-37 win over their rivals.

Make no mistake about it, the Kansas City Chiefs are not about to give up their Lombardi Trophy anytime soon. They lost their final game of the regular season after resting their key starters, but they will come into this week healthy and ready to go. While the Chiefs have not really made a habit of blowing opponents out, they have always seemed to find a way to do enough to win, which makes them very dangerous indeed.

The Browns are not going to be handed gifts the way they were against the Steelers, so this is a much tougher proposition. The fact that they still gave up 37 points in the win is a little concerning, and it has me believing that their very nice season comes to an end this weekend.