Pass-Happy Quarterback TD Props Odds and Expert Picks

Posted by Peter Brennan on Sunday,September 10, 2017 10:45, EDT in

Do you love today’s pass-happy NFL props odds and the opportunities it brings to see some of your favorite quarterbacks throw needle-threading touchdown passes? Well, if you do, then you’re going to absolutely love the 2017 NFL players props centered on the amount of touchdown passes some of the league’s top quarterbacks will throw this coming season.

Better yet, you don’t have to worry about doing any of the research on just how may touchdown passes certain quarterbacks will toss this coming season, I’ve already done it for you! Now, let’s start with my analysis and predictions on six of the top quarterbacks in the game today.

Pass-Happy Quarterback TD Props Odds and Expert Picks

 

 

Touchdown Pass Props Odds

Tom Brady

Over/Under 34.5

Analysis: Brady tossed 28 touchdown passes in 12 games last season for an average of 2.3 TD passes per game. Over a full, 16-game schedule that works out to be an average of 36.8 TD passes. Brady also tossed 36 touchdown passes in 16 games in 2015 and 33 TD passes in 16 games in 2014.

However, over his last seven seasons, Brady has thrown 35 TD passes or more just three times. Over 16 seasons, not including 2008 when he played in just one game, Brady has reached the 35-touchdown pass mark just four times. I’m going to say that Brady falls just short of topping this total in 2017.

TD Pass Props Odds Pick: Under 34.5 Total TD Passes

NFL Week 1 Sure Winners and Betting Predictions

Derek Carr

Over/Under 32.5

Analysis: Derek Carr may be one of the best young quarterbacks in the league today, but now entering his fourth season, he’s yet to top the 32 touchdown passes he tossed in his second season in 2015. Of course, Carr was at 28 TD passes when he got injured in Week 15 last season, so he could have potentially topped this figure last season. Since this is clearly a guy still on his way up as he enters the prime years of his career, I’m going to say that career continues to improve and throws at least 33 touchdown passes in 2017.

TD Pass Props Odds Pick: Over 32.5 Total TD Passes

Andrew Luck

Over/Under 33.5

Analysis: Andrew Luck tossed 31 touchdown passes in 15 games last season, but is already banged-up to start the 2017 campaign and only tossed 15 TD passes in another injury-riddled seven-game campaign in 2015. Just once in his five seasons has the ballyhooed former Stanford star topped 33.5 touchdown passes and that was in 2014 when he tossed 40. Right now, I don’t see it happening, particularly since I don’t have a lot of belief in his ability to stay healthy these days.

TD Pass Props Odds Pick: Under 33.5 Total TD Passes

Ben Roethlisberger

Over/Under 29.5

Analysis: Big Ben tossed 29 TD passes in 14 games in 2016 one year after being limited to 21 touchdown passes in a dozen games in 2015. Ben Roethlisberger has only topped 29 TD passes in a single season twice in his career by throwing an identical 31 TD strikes in 2007 and 2014. This one is going to be very close, but I’m thinking the return of mercurial wide receiver Martavis Bryant is going to help push Roethlisberger over the total here.

NFL Props Odds: Big Ben tossed 29 TD passes in 14 games in 2016 one year after being limited to 21 touchdown passes in a dozen games in 2015.

TD Pass Props Odds Pick: Over 29.5 Total TD Passes

Russell Wilson

Over/Under 26.5

Analysis: While Russell Wilson is one of the best ‘young veteran’ quarterbacks in the game today as he enters his sixth season as Seattle’s starter, the Super Bowl-winning signal-caller has only managed to throw over 26 TD passes in a single season once in his career After tossing a career-high 34 touchdown passes in 2015, Wilson was limited to a career-low of 21 in 16-injury filled starts last season.

However, I’m banking on a healthy Wilson and hungry Seahawks team to make some serious noise in the NFC in 2017. While the Seahawks want to get back to running the ball like they did when Marshawn Lynch was in his heyday, I believe the better offensive balance we’ll see from Seattle this season will actually help Wilson to top his Over/Under total. Simply put, bank on Seattle’s main man to toss at least 27 touchdown passes this coming season.

TD Pass Props Odds Pick: Over 26.5 Total TD Passes

Carson Wentz

Over/Under 22.5

Analysis: Let me start by saying that I genuinely believe the Philadelphia Eagles hit a home run by drafting the athletically-gifted Carson Wentz with the second overall pick in last year’s NFL Draft. Philly’s dual-threat young signal-caller tossed 16 TD passes as a rookie in 2016 but that came with almost literally, no one competent to catch the ball outside of veteran running back Darren Sproles.

Now, with two excellent veteran receivers in Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith, and some more young playmakers like former Wisconsin running back Corey Clement on the roster, I like Wentz to easily reach 23 touchdown passes or more in 2017.

TD Pass Props Odds Pick: Over 22.5 Total TD Passes