NFL 2017 Conference Round Upset Picks

Posted by Eric Williams on Thursday,January 19, 2017 8:03, EST in

I don’t know who let the dogs out, but make no mistake about it…they’re clearly off the leash heading into this weekend’s NFL conference championship matchups.

If you’re looking for some upset picks that are offering a ton of value, then you should know that both conference championship matchups are offering plenty of upset value. Now, let’s find out which are the current NFL betting odds.

NFL 2017 Conference Round Upset Picks

 

 

Green Bay (12-6) at Atlanta (12-5)

When: 3:05 PM ET, Sunday, January 22, 2017
Where: Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia
NFL Odds: Falcons -4 / Total: 60

Analysis: My first parlay pick is a selection for the underdog Green Bay Packers to cover the spread as a 4-point road dog. Not only has Green Bay been on fire by winning seven straight games, but the Packers are putting points on the board like an old-school pinball machine these days, having scored 30 points or more in six straight. I’m not picking Aaron Rodgers and company to get the outright win, but I do like them to cover a point spread that I believe should have been three points at best.

The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff road games and 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games overall. Rodgers and company are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the month of January and 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. Green Bay is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Championships games.

If you need some more reasons why Green Bay will cover the spread, then you should know that the road team in this NFC rivalry is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while the underdog has gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Last but not least, the Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Atlanta.

Pick: Green Bay +4 Points

 

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Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-2)

When:  Sunday, January 22, 2017 at 6:40 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
NFL Odds: New England -6 / Total: 50.5

Analysis: The New England Patriots look like they’re going to advance to Super Bowl 51, but no matter how hard I try, I just don’t see the Pats beating the Steelers by a touchdown to cover the NFL betting line.

The Pittsburgh Steelers average just 2.7 fewer points per game than the Patriots and have a far more explosive offense that New England’s. Pittsburgh is 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games, 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against their AFC rivals and a consistent 13-3-3 ATS in their last 19 games in the month of January.

While New England has gone 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games, Tom Brady and company are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven conference championships games. I like the Steelers to get the upset ATS cover while pushing the Patriots really hard for the outright win.

Pick: Pittsburgh +6 Points