NFL Super Bowl Betting Analysis of the Last 10 Bowl Matches

The Super Bowl LVI matchup has officially been decided, with the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams earning the rights to represent their conference on football’s biggest stage. This will be the lowest-seeded Super Bowl, with the AFC’s fourth-ranked squad (Cinci) meeting the NFC’s sixth seed (LA) in SoFi Stadium.

The Rams currently sit as four-point favorites in the concluding match of the 2021 NFL season despite being the lesser of the two seeds; the Bengals, meanwhile, have already beaten the number-one and two seeds in their conference already in this postseason and are flying high after tying a championship record for the largest comeback victory (18 points).

With just under two weeks until the Lombardi trophy is handed out, here is a look back at trends with the past 10 Super Bowls and their respective Super Bowl Betting Odds.

All Wins, All Covers: Analyzing the Last 10 Super Bowl Betting Results

Win Big

From last year’s clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs and going back to 2012’s duel featuring the New York Giants and New England Patriots, no losing team has managed to cover the spread, regardless of if the underdog or favorite has won. The team that came the closest was the Atlanta Falcons, who were three points away from covering a +3 line against the Patriots in the infamous 28-3 comeback in Super Bowl LI.

Just because teams have been winning big does not mean that the favorites have dominated, however; aside from a 2015’s pick ‘em with the Seattle Seahawks and Patriots, a game which ended 28-24 in favor of the Pats, six underdogs have been crowned champions of the world compared to just three favorites. Still, all three of these instances occurred within the last five years, giving them a recent precedent of success.

Just for fun, the team that whiffed the most on the spread was the Denver Broncos, who were -2.5 favorites against Seattle in 2014 but lost 43-8, two years before they would topple the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl L.

A True 50/50

The fact that the Bengals and Rams were both not expected to reach this great of a stage will be fueling them as they prepare over the next two weeks; the explosive ability that both of the teams’ quarterbacks possess will also add a level of variability into the game, making it difficult to predict.

For this very reason, the points total may seem like an intriguing prospect to bet on: right now, this is set at 49 points, with (-110) odds on either side. Unfortunately, there has been an even five-five split between overs and unders in the last 10 Super Bowls, though the last three have all gone under.

Going back to the boom-or-bust potential of the QBs in play, Joe Burrow’s Bengals scored a high of 41 points three times this season and a low of 15 against Denver in week four. Matthew Stafford’s Rams notched a high of 38 two times and were held to 10 by the 49ers in the middle of the season.

LA has outscored its opponents 84-55 in the postseason, averaging 28 per game and a combined 46.3, while Cinci has won the point differential 72-59 by scoring 24 per game and averaging a combined 43.7.

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?