Super Bowl LV Expert Analysis: Mahomes Vs Brady Showdown

Super Bowl LV Expert Analysis: Mahomes Vs Brady Showdown

Written by on February 1, 2021

Without a doubt, the most important individual battle when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV on Sunday will be which quarterback gets it done. MyBookie has posted multiple prop options for both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Check out analysis and free picks for some of the most important quarterback prop bets on the board. With that said, let’s jump right into action so you can make your bets against their Quarterbacks Super Bowl Prop Odds.

Super Bowl Top Props for QB Battle Between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady

Super Bowl LV

  • When: Sunday, February 7 at 6:30 pm ET
  • Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

QB Battle Mahomes Vs Brady – Top Props

Tom Brady Passing TDs

  • Over Pass TDs 2 ½ +130
  • Under Pass TDs 2 ½ -170

Over 2 ½ at +130 represents overlay odds. Terrific Tom has thrown 3 touchdown passes or more in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 10 games. If anything, the odds should be closer to +100 for over. Take the overlay odds. 

Brady Prop Pick: Over  

Tom Brady Pass Completions  

  • Over 25 ½ +100
  • Under 25 ½ -130

It’s tough to go over here. Tom will throw a lot of passes, no doubt. But he hasn’t completed many in the past 5 Tampa games. Brady broke the 25 completion mark just once in those last 5 games and that was versus the terrible Atlanta Falcons on January 3. He completed 20 versus Green Bay.

Brady Prop Pick: Under 

Tom Brady Longest Completion  

  • Over 39 ½ -115
  • Under 39 ½ -115

Kansas City plays a bend but don’t break defense. The Chiefs don’t give up huge plays. It’s difficult seeing Brady completing a pass longer than, maybe, 30 yards. 

Brady Prop Pick: Under  

Tom Brady First Completion  

  • Over 8½ +100
  • Under 8½ -130

We’re going with under. The first pass is likely to be a slant for 5 yards or so before the Bucs try and open things up on the second, or possibly even third, possession.  

Brady Prop Pick: Under  

Tom Brady Interceptions  

  • Over ½ -170
  • Under ½ +130

Yes, Tom could implode. More than likely? He plays a Super Bowl-like Tom Brady game. Don’t worry about the 3 picks he threw against the Packers. That was Tampa’s third game in the past three weeks. It was against a very good defense after the Buccaneers battled the Washington Football Team and the New Orleans Saints. 

Brady Prop Pick: Under

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards

  • Over 325 ½ -115
  • Under 325 ½ -115

Mahomes could throw for a ton of yards versus the Buccaneers, but Tampa’s defense has stepped it up during the playoffs. There’s a chance Andy Reid and Mahomes play a similar game in the win over Cleveland, where Patrick threw for 255 yards before suffering a concussion.

Mahomes Prop Pick: Under 

Patrick Mahomes Passing TDs

  • Over 2 ½ -135
  • Under 2 ½ +105

If the Chiefs beat the Bucs, it will be because Mahomes threw at least 3 touchdown passes. Kansas City is a pass first squad. They use the run to set up the pass. So don’t expect Mahomes to throw less than 3 TDs on Sunday. 

Mahomes Prop Pick: Over 

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts  

  • Over 41 ½ -125
  • Under 41 ½ -105

Patrick had 30 attempts against Cleveland and 38 against Buffalo. Tampa may try to play a similar game like the one Brady was involved in when he lead the Patriots to a win over the Rams in the 2019 Super Bowl. A ball control game means Mahomes and Reid counter with their own ball control style. That means less pass attempts. 

Mahomes Prop Pick: Under 

Patrick Mahomes Pass Completions  

  • Over 31½ +130
  • Under 31½ -170

On November 29, Mahomes completed 37-of-49. If the game is at a slower pace than that quick sprint, Patrick should complete less than 32 passes. 

Mahomes Prop Pick: Under 

Patrick Mahomes Longest Completion

  • Over 45 ½ +110
  • Under 45 ½ -150

We’re going under again. The Buccaneers made mistakes on defense when they faced the Chiefs in the regular season. They won’t make those same mistakes. Expect the Bucs to play a lot of Cover 2.

Mahomes Prop Pick: Under  

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions

  • Over ½ +130
  • Under ½ -180

Mahomes has a couple of weeks to prepare for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense. It’s difficult seeing Patrick throwing a pick in this game. He comes off an awesome performance against the Buffalo Bills.

Mahomes Prop Pick: Under  

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards

  • Over 23 ½ -120
  • Under 23 ½ -110

The Buccaneers have a problem dealing with both Patrick Mahomes arm and his legs. Expect more designed rushes in this game. If Buccaneers’ linebacker Devin White spies Mahomes, Patrick launch it to Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, or Mecole Harman. If White opens the middle by covering Kelce, Mahomes could take off. Over 23 ½ rushing yards is almost assured. 

Mahomes Prop Pick: Over


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