Padres vs Yankees MLB Lines & Pick for Friday Evening

It’s a potential World Series preview on Friday night when the San Diego Padres, who did chase free agent Aaron Judge this offseason before he returned to the Bronx, visit the New York Yankees, who are favored on the MLB odds.

Padres vs. Yankees | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet San Diego at New York MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium
Probable pitchers (away/home): Joe Musgrove/Luis Severino
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: Apple TV+
Opening MLB Lines: Yankees -160, Padres +150 (total 9)

Why Bet on San Diego?

Padres All-Star third baseman Manny Machado remains on the injured list with a hand injury. Machado fielded grounders Wednesday and resumed hitting off a tee earlier this week, but has yet to resume taking batting practice, which is the final remaining step before he’s cleared to return to San Diego’s lineup. Thus, it won’t be Friday most likely even though that’s when he’s first eligible to be activated.

There remains no firm timetable for catcher Luis Campusano’s return. His surgically repaired left thumb remains in a splint. He is throwing but not catching. The initial projection was for him to be out at until at least mid-July.

Big offseason acquisition and shortstop Xander Bogaerts is slashing an ugly .178/.277/.260 in May. He struck out four times in a game earlier this week for only the second time in the majors. Bogaerts has said before that he hasn’t felt entirely right all year, even during the 30-game on-base streak he put together at the start of the season (and the start of his time with the Padres).

“I’m not helping the cause get better right now,” Bogaerts said. “It’s very frustrating. It’s very annoying. I’m extremely frustrated. … To be honest, the days I’ve got some good results, I probably still haven’t felt great. I just have to continue to grind, continue to search, just keep digging.”

It’s right-hander Joe Musgrove on the mound Friday. Musgrove (1-2) allowed four runs on six hits and a walk while striking out six over five innings, taking the loss last Saturday versus the Red Sox. Enmanuel Valdez accounted for much of the damage against Musgrove with a three-run home run in the second inning. Alex Verdugo added an RBI single in the fourth. Musgrove still has yet to complete six innings in any of his five starts this season and has a 6.75 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 25:9 K:BB over 24 innings.

“I know a lot of people are saying, like, people are getting paid and now the fight and the desire and the need to win is not there anymore,” said Musgrove of his and his team’s struggles overall. “And it couldn’t be further from that, man. You get a contract, there’s more pressure on you to perform to that contract and do your job and earn what you’re getting paid. … I don’t think that is the reason that everyone is struggling right now. But it adds a lot of stress on top of it. It’s like a secondary thought to the fact that you’re struggling, like, ‘I’m also making all this money.’ It’s more a secondary thought than it is a cause and effect.”

Musgrove has lost some movement on his slider. As a result, it’s been hit hard and he’s gone away from it, instead leaning on his 4-seamer and, to a lesser extent, his changeup. The changeup has been dominant, but he’s thrown it only about 12% of the time. Despite an acceptable 8.0% walk rate, Musgrove hasn’t commanded the strike zone particularly well this year, finding the zone on only 42.8% of his pitches. His groundball rate has dropped to 35.5% from 44.5% in 2022. A .329 BABIP against and 66.5% LOB rate indicate some bad luck.

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Why Bet on New York?

The Yankees remain without third baseman Josh Donaldson and DH Giancarlo Stanton, but both are getting pretty close. Donaldson began a minor league rehab assignment Thursday and Stanton likely will start his Friday. Donaldson has been out since he left the game on April 5, and his comeback was delayed by a thumb injury last week. Manager Aaron Boone said Donaldson could “possibly” be back in time for the series at Seattle, which begins Tuesday, but it would “more likely” be when the Yankees visit the Dodgers next weekend because of the amount of time he has been out.

Stanton has been on the shelf since mid-April with a strained left hamstring. In addition to his DH duties in the middle of the order, Stanton will remain in the outfield mix, which the Yankees believe is beneficial to the slugger’s health in the long run.

It’s right-hander Luis Severino on the mound Friday. Severino did not factor into the decision Sunday in his season debut, allowing one run on four hits and a walk over 4.2 innings in a 4-1 victory over the Reds. He struck out five. Severino surrendered a run in the first inning Sunday before holding the Reds to three hits over his final 3.2 frames. He reached his 75-pitch limit one out short of qualifying for a win.

Overall, it was an encouraging debut for Severino. He threw exactly 75 pitches, 54 of which were thrown for strikes. His usage breaks down as follows: 44 four-seamers (59 percent), 16 changeups (21 percent), 14 sliders (19 percent) and one sinker. That’s heavy on the fastball relative to his dominant 2017 and 2018 campaigns, when he threw about 50 percent fastballs, 36 percent sliders and 14 percent changeups. He did not throw a single cutter, a pitch he incorporated into his repertoire last season and employed to great effect.

Said Boone, “Sevy was great. To almost go a full five innings there was big. I thought he kept getting better. I thought his misses were good misses. He finished the day emptying the tanks, so he had a little extra juice at the end of his outing.”

Severino has never faced the Padres. Xander Bogaerts is 3-for-29 off him with a double and eight strikeouts from Bogaerts’ Red Sox days.

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