NFL Playoffs Odds: Steelers vs Chiefs Betting Analysis & Prediction

The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Kansas City on Sunday to take on the Chiefs. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is hoping the game won’t be the final in his career. But even Big Ben knows the Steelers face a tall task versus the second choice to win Super Bowl 56. Will the Steelers extend Ben’s career? If not extend Roethlisberger’s career, can Pittsburgh keep the score close enough for a victory against the spread? See below for NFL Playoffs odds, analysis, and a free pick for Steelers at Chiefs.

NFL Wild Card Round Betting Preview for Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs Game Odds & Info | NFL Playoffs Betting

When: Sunday, Jan. 16 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV / Streaming: NBC / Peacock
ATS Odds: Kansas City -12
Moneyline Odds: Pittsburgh +455 / Kansas City -755
Over/Under Odds: 46 ½

Why bet on Pittsburgh versus Kansas City?

T.J. Watt plays for Pittsburgh. In the first game, Watt wasn’t one-hundred percent, which is one of the reasons the Chiefs blew out Pittsburgh 36-10. On Sunday, Watt, the likely defensive player of the year, is fully healthy, which means there’s a chance Patrick Mahomes is using his legs more than his arms.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 315.4

Passing Yards: 222.2

Rushing Yards: 93.1

Points Scored: 20.2

Turnovers: 20

Pittsburgh Steelers Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 361.1

Passing Yards: 215.1

Rushing Yards: 146.1

Points Scored: 23.4

Takeaways: 21

Why bet on Kansas City versus Pittsburgh?

Kansas City is gearing up for a deep playoff run. The Chiefs lost in Week 17 to the Bengals but followed up the bad performance with a victory over the rival Broncos in Denver. Heading into the playoffs, Travis Kelce is ready to roll, which means Patrick Mahomes will have his favorite target. Also, the Chiefs’ defense improved big time in the second half of the season.

Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 396.8

Passing Yards: 281.8

Rushing Yards: 115.0

Points Scored: 28.2

Turnovers: 25

Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 368.9

Passing Yards: 251.4

Rushing Yards: 117.6

Points Scored: 21.4

Takeaways: 27

Steelers at Chiefs Relevant Trends

Steelers are 5-2 ATS versus a team with a winning record
Pittsburgh is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win
Over is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last 5 games as a road underdog
Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games
Kansas City is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass
Over is 5-0 in the Chiefs’ last 5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs Final Betting Prediction

On paper, Kansas City should easily beat the Steelers, but Pittsburgh has some things going for them that should lead to at least a win against the spread. For starters, Pittsburgh’s defense has perfected bend but don’t break.

The Steelers gave up 201 rushing yards to the Tennessee Titans in Week 15. No worries. Pittsburgh beat Tennessee 19-13.

In Week 18, the Steelers allowed the Ravens to rush for a ridiculous 249 yards. That wasn’t enough for Baltimore to win the game. Pittsburgh tied the rival Ravens 13-13 before prevailing 16-13 in overtime.

The Steelers defense doesn’t have to stop the rush to win games. Instead, Pittsburgh allows teams to rack up rushing yards and then tightens in the red zone. That gives the Steelers a massive advantage against the Chiefs because KC isn’t a very good rushing team to begin with.

Watt produced 22.5 sacks this season and he wasn’t one-hundred percent for many games. He actually missed a couple of contests and still became the NFL’s historical season sack leader.

Every time Patrick Mahomes steps back to pass, Watt will be in his face. If the Chiefs get behind early and start throwing more than Andy Reid wants to, Mahomes and KC will play right into Watt’s grasp.

This has the makings of a major moneyline upset, one of the biggest in NFL Playoff history. If you want to take the easier route to profits, back Pittsburgh against the spread.

NFL Wild Card Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

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