Finding Value in the Midst of the Clay: Mutua Madrid Open Odds for ATP Matches

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The Mutua Madrid Open, one of nine Masters 1000 tournaments on the ATP, begins on Tuesday, April 23 at the Park Manzanares in Madrid, Spain. The 96-player clay court tournament features 32 seeds, each of which receives a bye into the second round. Most the top players in the world are competing with the exception of Novak Djokovic, who last played at the Monte-Carlo Masters.

Step into the Madrid sun with Mutua Madrid Open Odds! Analyze matchups featuring the world’s best, predict the next champion, and experience the thrill of ATP tennis!

Betting Odds for the Mutua Madrid Open and Analysis for the First Round Matches | MyBookie Tennis Preview for the ATP Tournaments

2024 Madrid Open | 22nd edition of the Mutua Madrid Open
ATP Tour Masters 1000 | WTA 1000

April 22nd – May 5th, 2024
La Caja Mágica, Madrid, Spain

Mutua Madrid Past Champions 

Djokovic, who isn’t competing in the Mutua Madrid Open in 2024, is a three-time winner and last won the clay court tournament in 2019, beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final. Rafael Nadal, who is competing in just his third event this season, is a five-time winner in Madrid and last won in 2017. Carlos Alcaraz is the two-time defending champion, but his status for this week is up in the air as he has been dealing with a forearm issue – he pulled out of the Barcelona Open last week due to injury.

Top 10 Seeds in 2024

1. Jannik Sinner

2. Carlos Alcaraz

3. Daniil Medvedev

4. Alexander Zverev 

5. Casper Ruud 

6. Stefanos Tsitsipas

7. Andrey Rublev

8. Hubert Hurkacz

9. Grigor Dimitrov

10. Alex de Minaur

Key Tennis Storylines

Is Nadal Still the "King of Clay?"
Nadal is a five-time champion in Madrid, but hasn’t won here since 2017 and has only played five matches this season, including two on clay. He’s 3-2 overall with wins over Dominic Thiem, Jason Kubler, and Flavio Cobolli. He has only played nine matches dating back to the start of the 2023 season and is in danger of losing his "King of Clay" moniker, if he hasn’t already, to Alcaraz, the two-time defending champion in Madrid.

Nadal was 38-6 on clay in the prior three seasons. A strong performance in Madrid could certainly make things interesting as we move closer to the French Open.

Sinner’s Sensational Season
Jannik Sinner is the top seed in the tournament and the betting favorite to win. He has easily been the most dominant and impressive player on the ATP Tour this season, with a 25-2 record and winning the Australian Open, Miami Open, and ABN Amro Open. Alcaraz, who is dealing with injury issues, and Tsitsipas are the only players to beat him this season. If he’s able to carry his performance over to the clay court season, he’ll be a favorite in the French Open.

Ruud’s Emergence
Casper Ruud, the fifth seed in Madrid, is having a breakthrough season in 2024. Ruud, traditionally a strong clay court player, had his best start to a season on hard courts, going 17-5 through 22 matches (he was 12-12 last season). He made multiple semi-finals and finals, but was unable to win a title. That changed on Sunday, when he beat Tsitsipas in the final in Barcelona.

Ruud is one of the best clay court players on the ATP Tour and is playing with plenty of confidence right now. Expect another deep run in Madrid and potentially his second consecutive title. That would certainly impact his French Open odds, which currently offer good value at +1375.

2024 Mutua Madrid Open
ATP Pick: Casper Ruud | ATP Odds to Win
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Tournament

ATP Odds to Win for the Next Event

Upcoming 2024 ATP Events

Internazionali BNL d’Italia | May 5 – May 19

Gonet Geneva Open | May 16 – May 26

Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon | May 16 – May 26

French Open | May 18 – June 10

Boss Open | June 7 – June 17

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The ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open Masters is down to the final 16 players, and most of the favorites and top seeds are still alive. The tournament has gone one without a hitch from La Caja Magica despite the absence of injured superstars Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.

Four of the top 10 seeds have been eliminated, but only one of the top five favorites is gone. No. 6 seed Holger Rune was +1600 to win the title but lost to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the third round. No. 3 seed Casper Ruud, No. 7 Felix Auger-Aliassime, and No. 9 Frances Tiafoe also lost earlier this week.

Let’s take a look at the updated ATP lines for the 2023 Mutua Madrid Open and some of the first-round odds at MyBookie.

Updated Mutua Madrid Open Odds and Picks | MyBookie Tennis Betting Preview

2023 Mutua Madrid Open
When: 25 April − 7 May, 2023
Category: ATP Tour Masters 1000 | WTA 1000
Where: Park Manzanares, La Caja Mágica, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay / outdoor

Alcaraz Remains the Favorite

Carlos Alcaraz opened the tournament as the favorite and remains the top choice as the tournament enters the Round of 16. Before the tournament began, he was +100 to win the title, but now he’s -145 to be the last man standing on Sunday.

Alcaraz, who is now 25-2 on the season, faces No. 13 Alexander Zverev in the round of 16. Alcaraz beat Zverev in the finals of this event last year, but the German prevailed in the quarterfinals of the French Open.

If Alcaraz gets past Zverev, as expected, he will face the winner of the all-Russian matchup between No. 5 Andrey Rublev and No. 10 Karen Khachanov. Alcaraz is 2-0 against Khachanov but has never faced Rublev, the winner of the Monte Carlo Masters.

Rublev is now +1800 to win his second Masters tournament of the clay court season. He has won both matches in straight sets so far, and whoever makes the semifinal between Alcaraz, Zverev, Rublev, and Khachanov will face, at best, a No. 17 seed in the semifinals.

Tsitsipas Surviving

The No. 4 seed has the second-best odds to win it all, with Stefanos Tsitsipas at +450 on the updated odds. He started the Madrid Open at +900, but with seeded players Auger-Aliassime, Tiafoe, and Tommy Paul eliminated, his path to the semifinal is clear.

The problem for Tsitsipas has been breaking serve. He’s needed three sets to win both of his matches so far, dispatching wild card Dominic Thiem in a final-set tiebreak before beating No. 25 Sebastian Baez 6-3 in the third.

Tsitsipas is 22-6 on the season, and he will face unseeded players until at least the semifinals. In the semis, he could face No. 2 Daniil Medvedev or No. 8 Taylor Fritz.

Medvedev and Fritz on Collision Course

If not Tsitsipas at the bottom of the draw, it will likely be Medvedev or Fritz. Medvedev opened at +1200, and he’s now +600. Meanwhile, Fritz opened up at +3500 and is now +1200 to win in Madrid.

Medvedev won his first match in Madrid in straight sets and then knocked off Alex Shevchenko in three sets. He will face unseeded Aslan Karatsev in the round of 16 and either Fritz or Zhizhen Zhang in the quarterfinals.

Fritz hasn’t lost a set yet in this tournament and has taken two tiebreakers to reach the round of 16. He has never faced Zhang or Karatsev and is 0-1 against Medvedev, should they meet in the quarterfinals.

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The tennis calendar continues to charge toward the French Open but will head to the ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open Masters without two of the biggest names on tour. Five-time Madrid Open champion and the King of Clay, Rafael Nadal, has been out since the Australian Open. Now, world No. 1 Novak Djokovic has also taken an injury and withdrawn from the Madrid Open after an early loss last week in Bosnia.

Their departures leave Carlos Alcaraz as a clear favorite and top seed this week. The young Spaniard may also emerge as the French Open favorite as well if neither Djokovic nor Nadal is able to recover in time to make it to Roland Garros next month.

The injury withdrawals, plus the 2022 retirement of Roger Federer, means this will be the first-ever Madrid Open not to feature the Big 3. The last time the event was held without Djokovic or Nadal was in 2002 when it was still played on the hard courts.

Let’s take a look at the ATP odds for the ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open and some of the first-round odds at MyBookie.

2023 ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open Odds, Picks, and Tennis Betting Analysis

2023 Mutua Madrid Open
When: 25 April − 7 May, 2023
Category: ATP Tour Masters 1000 | WTA 1000
Where: Park Manzanares, La Caja Mágica, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay / outdoor

Alcaraz the Man to Beat

Alcaraz is a big favorite to repeat his 2022 Madrid Open title as he opens the tournament at +100. He is 23-2 so far in 2023 with three titles claimed, and he just steamrolled to the Barcelona Open title on clay with a 6-3, 6-4 win over Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The top seed has a pretty easy draw to the quarterfinals as well. He could face Alexander Zverev in a rematch of last year’s final in the round of 16, but the German has fallen to No. 16 in the world with a 10-11 record so far this season. A matchup with Np. 5 seed Andrey Rublev looms in the quarters, with the Russian having won the Monte Carlo title earlier this month.

Tsitsipas Getting Close

The 2023 season has been one of close calls for Tsitsipas, with an overall record of 20-6. However, he hasn’t won a title since a finals loss to Djokovic in the Australian Open and last week to Alcaraz in Barcelona. He is 6-2 on clay so far this season and reached the semifinals in Madrid last year.

Tsitsipas is in the bottom half of the draw and wouldn’t face Alcaraz again until the final. He won this event in 2019 and reached the finals at the French Open in 2021. Ranked No. 5 in the world and seeded No. 4, Tsitsipas is +900 to win in Madrid, the second-best odds after Alcaraz.

Looking at the draw, he does have a couple of early challenges, with 14-seed Tommy Paul as a possible early matchup. In the quarters, he could face No. 9 Frances Tiafoe or No. 7 Felix Auger-Aliassime, but neither is as accomplished on clay as Tsitsipas.

The Other Contenders

The next wave is led by No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev at +1200 to win it all, just ahead of Zverev and No. 6 seed Holger Rune at +1600. Rublev is +2800, and No. 3 seed Casper Ruud leads a group of players at +3500 to win the title.

Medvedev doesn’t have a great track record on clay, and he took last week off. The Russian lost to Rune in the quarterfinals of the Monte Carlo Open, and all four of his titles this season are on hard courts. A challenging matchup against former Madrid champion Andy Murray awaits in the second round, and Medvedev will have to navigate past Cam Norrie, Taylor Fritz, and possibly Tsitsipas to reach the finals.

Rune, Rublev, and Ruud have seen success on clay so far this year. Rune and Ruud are in the same quadrant and could face each other in the quarterfinals, while Rublev has a tough path with Alcaraz in his quad.

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With the 2021 Madrid Open currently in its Round of 32 stage, let’s find out which ATP World Tour stars are in action on Wednesday. I’ve identified ttwo intriguing matches that both look like they are offering a ton of great tennis betting value. Now, let’s find out where the best Tennis betting value lies in the second day of Round of 32 action.

ATP Madrid Open Preview – Tennis Betting Analysis

No. 7 Diego Schwartzman Vs Aslan Karatsev

When: Wednesday, May 5
Tennis Odds: Schwartzman +119 / Karatsev -158

Aslan Karatsev made his Madrid Open with a 7-5, 6-4 win over Ugo Humbert in the first round on Monday. The Russian improved to a stellar 18-5 on the year. The 27-year-old struck 24 winners and never dropped serve throughout. Karatsev is now third on the year with most wins on tour this year after Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev (26 apiece). Diego Schwartzman makes his 2021 Madrid Open in this match. The 28-year-old Argentine is 12-7 on the year with one title at the Argentina Open.

Head-to-Head

Karatsev owns a 1-0 edge in head-to-head meetings, having beaten Schwartzman 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 at the Australian Open earlier this year.

Prediction

While Diego Schwartzman is an excellent clay court player, Aslan Karatsev is in full bloom right now. More importantly, he’s the bigger and stronger player in this matchup with bbigger weapons. I’m expecting Karatsev to hug the baseline and fire off fast-paced winners whenever Schwartzman gives him a ball he can put some pace on. Karatsev showed at the Aussie Open that he is quite capable of beating anyone in the world these days and I do mean anyone. The late-blooming Russian gets in done in three sets to cash in as a slight favorite.

Pick: Aslan Karatsev in 3 Sets

No. 1 Rafael Nadal Vs Carlos Alcaraz Garfia

When: Wednesday, May 5
Tennis Odds: Carlos Alcaraz +719 / Rafael Nadal -1999

The incomparable Rafael Nadal will make his 2021 Mutua Madrid Open debut against young countryman Carlos Alcaraz. While Nadal received a first round bye, the young Spaniard he will face in this match made a nice first impression in his Madrid debut by dispatching Frenchman Adrian Mannarino 6-4, 6-0 on Monday. Alcaraz, who turns 18 on the day of this match, reached the semifinals of the Andalucia Open before falling in the opening round at the Barcelona Open and the Estoril Open, The 34-year-old Nadal won the title at Barcelona last week by beating Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-7 (5), 7-5 in the finals. He’s afive-time winner of this event, but hasn’t reached the finals since last winning in 2017.

Head-to-Head

Nadal and Alcaraz have never faced each other.

Prediction

I love the composure the young Carlos Alcaraz plays with and I don’t expect the rising star to be overwhelmed by the occassion. Still, I’m nt betting against Rafael Nadal on clay and nor sould anyone else for that matter. Nadal is clearly not the same player he was a few years ago as the grinding style he plays starts to take its toll, but he’s still the best clay court player in the world and he’s hungry.

Nadal has looked surprisingly susceptible so far this clay court season and that leads me to believe Alcaraz can take at least one set in this matchup. However, Rafael Nadal will almost assuredly find a way to get it done against his teen-aged opponent in this one. Nadal gets it done, but it’s going the distance.

Pick: Rafael Nadal in 3 Sets

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With Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both turning back the clock, the start of the 2017 ATP Tour season has undoubtedly been one of the most surprising – and unpredictable – in recent ATP Tour memory.

Now, with the 2017 Mutua Madrid Open getting underway over the Cinco de Mayo weekend, tennis betting aficionados everywhere actually have only one ‘real’ question they need to answer when it comes to the prestigious lead-up event to the French Open.

Mutua Madrid Open Tennis Odds & Betting Picks

Can anyone beat ‘The King of Clay,’ on his favorite surface? Sure, both, World No. 1 Andy Murray and World No. 2 Novak Djokovic, will be in the field, but in reality, all roads to winning the championship will likely have to go through the inimitable Rafa!

Now, let’s find out if anyone can stop Nadal from bagging this year’s Mutua Madrid Open title.

Mutua Madrid Open

Date: May 7-14, 2017
Location: Madrid, Spain
Category: ATP World Tour Masters 1000
Surface: Clay

Mutua Madrid Open Odds

Analysis: Nadal, the fifth-ranked player in the world is a fantastic 29-5 on the season with two titles and two finals losses to Roger Federer at the Aussie Open and Miami. Rafa enters Madrid after recording victories on clay at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and Barcelona.

World No. 2 Novak Djokovic is off to a shaky 14-4 start coming into Madrid with one title, but the former World No. 1 enter Madrid after falling to David Goffin in the quarterfinals at Monte Carlo. Djokovic has also suffered a pair of losses to Nick Kyrgios this season while getting smacked around by Dennis Istomin in the second round at Australia.

Top Contenders

Andy Murray
Kei Nishikori
Dominic Thiem
Nick Kyrgios
David Goffin

Analysis: Murray is just 15-5 coming into Madrid and just doesn’t seem to have the confidence of being the world’s No. 1 player at the moment. Kei Nishikori has dropped down to eighth in the world and is just 15-6 this season with zero titles. World No. 9 Dominic Thiem is looking dangerous as he comes into Madrid with a solid 22-10 record and one title and World No. 20 Nick Kyrgios has been even more impressive in going 16-4 while beating Djokovic and World No. 19 Alexander Zverev twice apiece this season. World No. 10 David Goffin has compiled an impressive 24-9 record coming into Madrid while recording wins against Djokovic and Thiem at Monte Carlo.

The Pick

With Rafael Nadal playing on his best surface and looking a lot like the Rafa of five year ago, it’ kind of hard to go against the King of Clay at what is basically a home tournament in Madrid.

While Nadal isn’t t shoo-in he used to be to win every clay court event he enters, his recent wins on clay suggest that it will take a superhuman effort for anyone to beat Nadal for the title. I like Nadal to get the win in Madrid with my second and third picks to get the win going to David Goffin and Nick Kyrgios.

The Winner: Rafael Nadal