Early Season MLB Betting Mistakes

Betting on early season MLB games can be risky. Teams are still finding their rhythm, and bettors often overreact to short-term trends. Knowing what mistakes to avoid can help you make smarter bets and protect your bankroll.

Early season games often feature unexpected performances. Teams that appear strong in April may struggle by June, while teams that start slow can turn things around. Understanding how to approach this part of the season is key. By learning about common mistakes and adjusting your strategy, you can improve your chances of winning. Here’s a guide to help you avoid early season betting pitfalls.

Why is Early Season MLB Betting So Challenging?

How Do Roster Changes and New Players Impact Early Season MLB Betting?

MLB rosters change every offseason. Teams add new players through trades, free agency, or minor league call-ups. These changes can make it hard to predict early season performance.

Some new players might struggle with the pressure, while others thrive immediately. Pitchers may take time to adjust to new teams or stadiums. Roster changes often make it difficult to trust past performance as a clear guide.

Teams that improved on paper may still need time to build chemistry. Knowing which teams have seen major roster changes can help you avoid betting mistakes early in the season.

Injuries also play a big role early in the season. Players returning from injury may have limited workloads or reduced effectiveness. Bettors should monitor injury reports carefully and avoid placing large bets until these players prove they are fully healthy.

How Do Teams Adjust After Spring Training Into the Regular Season?

Spring training is a warm-up period, not a true reflection of how teams will perform in real games. Managers often experiment with lineups, and players focus more on preparation than winning.

Teams can struggle to carry spring momentum into the regular season. Some pitchers who excel in spring training may falter once they face top lineups in real games.

It’s smart to give teams time to adjust to regular season conditions. Avoid putting too much value on spring training results when making early season bets.

Additionally, teams may focus on developing young players or testing different bullpen combinations early in the season. This makes it harder to predict which teams will start fast or slow. Understanding each team’s strategy can give you an edge.

What Are the Most Common Early Season MLB Betting Mistakes?

Why Is It a Mistake to Overreact to Early Season Winning/Losing Streaks?

Short winning or losing streaks are common in baseball. A team that starts the season 7-1 might just be catching lucky breaks. Likewise, a slow 2-6 start doesn’t mean a team is destined to finish last.

With a 162-game season, small sample sizes mean little. A hot-hitting lineup can cool off quickly, while cold teams may improve once they get their timing back.

Instead of focusing on streaks, pay attention to team trends, bullpen usage, and how managers are adjusting their lineups. These insights can reveal more than a brief winning or losing run.

Pay attention to teams that have had unusually easy or difficult early schedules. A strong start against weak opponents may not reflect a team’s true potential. On the other hand, teams that start slow against top-tier opponents may improve once their schedule softens.

Why Is It a Mistake to Chase Losses in Early Season MLB Betting?

Early season MLB betting often leads to frustration. Bettors may panic after a few bad losses and try to win it back quickly. This is known as chasing losses.

Baseball has unpredictable results, especially in April. Teams that look dominant one week may struggle the next. Chasing losses often leads to poor decisions and bigger financial setbacks.

Instead of chasing, set a budget for early season betting. Be patient and focus on finding value rather than trying to recover lost bets in a hurry. Many successful bettors limit their early season bets to one or two plays per day. This approach reduces the risk of chasing losses and keeps your bankroll intact for when clearer trends emerge.

How Do I Adjust My MLB Betting Strategy for the Early Season?

How Do I Find Value in Early Season MLB Betting Odds?

Oddsmakers rely on past performance when setting early season lines. This can create value for sharp bettors who spot teams poised to exceed expectations.

Look for underdogs that show strong pitching or improved defense. These teams can outperform betting lines before the market fully adjusts.

Pay attention to teams with solid bullpens or deep lineups. In early season games, teams that manage their pitchers effectively often hold late leads better than those that struggle with relief pitching.

Underdogs that excel in situational play, like hitting with runners in scoring position or limiting errors, often deliver strong early value. Watching how managers adjust to these situations can help you find winning bets.

How to Determine When to Place Futures Bets in the Early Season

Futures bets can offer good value early in the season, but timing is key. If you believe a team is better than its preseason projections, betting early can lock in favorable odds.

However, teams that start slow may offer better value after a few weeks. Futures odds often shift based on early results, which can create better opportunities for smart bettors.

Monitor teams showing signs of growth, like improved hitting or stable pitching. This approach helps you spot rising teams before oddsmakers adjust their lines.

Also, consider team schedules when placing futures bets. Teams that start with a tough schedule may see their odds improve if they survive early tests. Identifying these teams early can deliver great betting value.

Other Early Season MLB Betting Mistakes

The MLB regular season just begun, and with a total of 162 games in each team’s calendar, you may want to avoid the costly, early season betting mistakes that put a lot of bettors in the red right out of the gate.

There’s no need to worry, thanks to the expert MLB betting advice that you’re about to get, you’re going to be able to avoid some common errors that most bettors tend to make in the early going of each season. Now, let’s get started.

Pitch Perfect?

While the vast majority of baseball bettors know that good pitching, more than anything else, is the biggest determining factor in the outcome of baseball games, many of these same bettors will make miscalculations on how well a team will do because they’re simply looking at the starting rotation and bullpen.

One of the main things to consider when evaluating a baseball team’s pitching staff is factoring in injuries and depth. Meaning, you know a team has a strong pitching staff if there was tough competition for its fourth and fifth starter’s spots.

Also, you need to look at each team’s age and experience level throughout their pitching staff and what kind of talent they have in their farm system sine a call-up or two is not only likely, but damn near guaranteed. Remember, as the old adage goes, good pitching beats good hitting.

Early Season MLB Betting Mistakes: Oh Henry!

A lot of baseball bettors will forget to judge the real depth of a team’s hitters and simply look at their starters while forgetting about the depth of each teams’ bench contributors.

A team could appear to have a solid group of hitters – until someone goes down with a lengthy injury and then you find out that the team doesn’t have high quality backups or worse yet, a bare cupboard at the farm system levels. Make sure you know all about a team’s hitting depth.

Expecting the Best

One of the biggest mistakes baseball bettors make early in the season is expecting the best out of teams instead of preparing for the worst.

Each spring, every team’s top young prospects are overly hyped (unless you’re Kris Bryant) and many bettors incorrectly believe that hype without considering the struggles young players – and many veterans – go through over the course of a regular season. While expecting the best is all fine and well from a fan’s perspective, baseball bettors need to prepare for the worst.

Early Season MLB Betting Mistakes: Look at the Big Picture

The vast majority of inexperienced baseball bettors will simply look at a team’s performance from the prior year and the transactions that team made and come to a conclusion on how that team will perform in the coming year while forgetting to look at the big picture.

This means many baseball bettors will forget to look at the other teams in a division or league and the changes that each of these teams made as well.

For example, let’s say the Philadelphia Phillies are adding a big-time young prospect to their starting lineup, but the New York Mets and Washington Nationals both added two gifted hurlers to their respective rosters that are both expected to make big impacts.

Then you need to think big picture and understand that the Mets’ and Nationals’ additions trump that of Philly’s and adjust your betting mindset accordingly.

Value Seekers

Numerous baseball betting buffs simply look at a team’s odds, whether they’re season-long props odds wagers or game-day wagers, and go with whatever line or odds they see first when a bit of line shopping could have saved them a few bucks.

Maximize your chances of getting the best value that you can by doing a bit of line shopping. While it may not seem like much over one or two bets, you’ll really make the most out of your baseball betting bucks by line shopping the entire season.

Conclusion

Betting on early season MLB games comes with risks. Roster changes, new managers, and unpredictable performances can create challenges. Understanding these factors can help you make smarter betting decisions.

Avoid common mistakes like overreacting to short streaks or chasing losses. Focus on team trends, bullpen depth, and value plays to improve your chances.

Patience is key in early season MLB betting. By staying disciplined and sticking to a strategy, you can increase your chances of long-term success.

MyBookie’s Sportsbook Betting Guide | Betting on Sports

Check out our Sports Betting Guide to increase those winning when betting on any sports.

Sports Betting Odds

---

Sportsbook Betting

mybookie App Download App

Download Remind me later