Team Record in Games Started (TRGS) and its Influence in Baseball BettingAs you all know, a pitcher’s win-loss record simply refers to games in which he has received a decision. The win-loss record never mentions games in which a relief pitcher earned the decision. But in the TGRS, details of a team’s actual win-loss record whenever a given starter takes to the hill. So if a starter, for example, leaves the game when his team was leading 5-0 after 6 innings, but the bullpen (his relief) messes up and they lose 7-5, the starter is the one who will be credited with the loss on TGRS. This in contrast to the usual pitchers’ win-loss record that often exempts the loss from the pitcher who went 5-0 and left the team with things going on well, before his relief screwed up things. In order to make a good betting decision based on the starting pitchers, it is therefore strongly recommended that you not only look at the usual win-loss record that is usually given with a pitcher’s ERA, but go as far as finding out his TGRS. Most of the time, you will find that a pitcher’s record coincides with the team’s record in games the pitcher started. In such a case of congruency, you are free to make your decision accordingly without worrying about adjusting your picks. But if you find that a pitcher’s usual win-loss record is largely contrasting to his win-loss record in the TGRS, then there is reason for alarm. The majority of times when this happens, you will find that a team is either overvalued or undervalued by the bookmakers, which should prompt you to adjust your bets accordingly. Below are a few examples to show what we mean by comparing the pitcher’s numbers and the team records from 2014, including the profitability that came with the pitchers:
- Homer Bailey: Had a 9-5 record for Cincinnati Reds in 2014, but the team went 10-13 in games he started. Resultantly, he sported a flat-bet loss of 3.6 units for the season.
- Ryan Vogelsong: Greatly benefited from San Francisco’s bullpen, as he was just 8-13, but the Giants went 18-17 in his starts on the mound, collecting good profit units of +2.6.
- Tim Hudson: Hudson had a win-loss record of just 9-14 last, but San Francisco was impressively 20-15 in games he started on the mound, good for a decent +5.1 units.
- Yordano Ventura: Had a decent 14-10 record for Kansas City, but the Royals were 8-2 in the games that Ventura didn’t receive a decision, as he posted a nice +6.0-unit gain in 2014.
- TJ House: House’s win-loss numbers looked sketchy at 5-3 for Cleveland in 2014, but his team was firmly at 13-5 in the games he started on the mound, which was good for a solid +9.6 units