Profitable Underdog Betting Systems for Baseball

Posted by Joe Solari on May 17, 2016 in

The 162-game MLB season is easily the longest stretch of games among the Major Sports in the world, and with many back-to-back games without a day off, we tend to have a lot of interchangeable winning and losing streaks in the sportsbook odds. As you’d expect, the betting public often sides with favorites, getting a surmountable amount of profits in the process. However, if you keenly asses the MLB lines throughout the season, as we have done for several years in the past, you will find that the best betting value comes with the ability to spot and bet on the right underdogs rather than favorites. With MLB betting lines that give underdogs the value of up to three or four times what you’d get when backing a favorite, placing wagers on two or three profitable underdogs in a week can make you more money than you’d do by backing up to 10 heavy favorites within the same duration.

The question that remains, therefore, is—how can we find profitable underdogs and dependable underdog betting systems to handicap baseball games? Below, we offer some tips and systems that can boost your bankroll and increase your baseball profits when betting on baseball underdogs, particularly in the MLB.

A Closer Look at the Profitable Underdog Betting Systems for Baseball

Betting on Streaky Underdogs

Whether it is hitting, pitching or teams on a winning run, wagering on streaky underdogs can bring you good profits. Such players and teams are often very motivated and have a psychological advantage that gives them some edge over their opponents, most of whom come into games afraid of falling to these streaky underdogs. Because of this, not considering a streak, simply because you are dealing with an underdog is ill-advised and often counter-intuitive. To avoid wrong picks, be sure to use the information you have on streaks to make informed betting judgments; this will allow you to mitigate your risks while making more accurate betting decisions.

Betting on Underdogs with Strong Bullpens

Strong bullpens—whether playing for favorites or underdogs—play a crucial role towards wins. If you are therefore dealing with an underdog with a strong bullpen, chances are that they’re likely to win the game, capitalizing on their ability to come from behind late in the game or building on decent starts to finish off opponents. If you are dealing with two opposing bullpens that are relatively equal in strength, consider other additional options such as field advantage, streaks and overall stats (offensive and defensive) to find which team offers better value.

Fading Public Teams

While it is ill-advised to dismiss teams with strong historical legacies like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, or recent MLB heavyweights like the St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays; it is important to keep in mind that most of their charm is based on their histories rather than what is going on currently. On several occasions, you find that such teams finish the year with losing records in the money lines and run lines, mainly because the betting public feeds onto their histories rather than assessing current statistics on the ground. This is where the popular underdog betting strategy of fading the public, also known as contrarian betting, becomes highly valuable for bettors. Use the current numbers in front of you to make decisions instead of betting with your heart, and if you find that team that is publically supported to win a game (by Oddsmakers or bettors), go the exact opposite way and take the underdog. Of course, not all publically supported teams fit this criterion, but finding the right fade options and taking advantage of such emotionality is guaranteed to get you good profits in the course of the lengthy MLB season.

Betting on Divisional Underdogs Playing at Home

In the 162-game season, divisional games make for around half of a team’s schedule (76 games per season) and winning these games is very crucial when it comes down to deciding the divisional winners and the runner-ups that will make the cut for the playoffs. Adding to this importance is the long-standing rivalry between divisional opponents, which leads to fierce games when two divisional opponents meet. These surrounding circumstances in divisional baseball tilts can be crucial when handicapping underdogs. According to repetitive history from nearly all divisions in the MLB, small to medium home underdogs can deliver good profits under the right circumstances—like when the divisional title or a playoff position is at stake. Small to medium home dogs also tend to play with a lot of tenacity in games against divisional opponents who battered them on road, with the revenge factor playing a huge role in motivating strong home performances by the underdogs. Keeping an eye out for such circumstances is therefore important when handicapping MLB odds that involve small to medium divisional underdogs who are playing at home.

Betting on April Underdogs

At the start of the MLB season in the month of April, certain teams get off the block slowly while others start quickly. The offseason changes in various teams can also set a good breeding ground for the rise of new stars as other renowned names crest-fall from their top positions. This malleability across the league offers a good chance for several underdogs to score big before normalcy starts to creep back into the league in May and parity is restored by June. Conclusion and Final Tips: Besides the above-discussed MLB underdog betting systems and tips, we also have those situational underdog teams or players that have a knack for performing well certain special circumstances. For example, certain teams do well against right or left- handed pitchers, others perform well as underdogs at home or on the road, others are hot at the end of the season while others who are hot at the start, others play well in early-day games while others play better in late-day games, and other teams seemingly play their best against particular starters. By being knowledgeable on such favorable underdog betting situations, you could easily find yourself having a very profitable summer.