For all the MLB betting fans that love taking the guesswork out of making often difficult Moneyline or Run Line wagers by simply betting on the total, you’re going to love this expert handicapping guide. If you want a full breakdown of baseball betting markets, strategies, and odds, explore our MLB betting guide before diving into totals strategy.
In an effort to help you cash in consistently over the course of the season, I’ve got a handful of expert total betting tips that are simply salivating! Now, let’s get started.
If you’re new to baseball wagering, reviewing this beginner guide to MLB betting can help explain how moneylines, run lines, and totals markets work before applying more advanced handicapping techniques.
Starting Pitching
If you’re betting on MLB totals, then the first thing you need to know is who’s taking the mound for both ball clubs and how they’ve been throwing the ball recently.
For instance, let’s say the Dodgers are trotting out staff ace Clayton Kershaw, and they’re facing a San Francisco Giants team that is going to send staff ace Madison Bumgarner to the hill.
Well, you had better believe that the most likely scenario is that there aren’t going to be a lot of runs being scored.
Conversely, if you’re betting on a matchup that features two back-end starters or one massively struggling starter, then the strongest scenario is that there are going to be a fair share of runs being scored. Know who’s starting for each team and make your Over/Under total wager accordingly.
Pitching matchups are especially important early in the year when sportsbooks are still adjusting their models. Bettors who understand how to take advantage of early MLB season betting opportunities can often find totals value before markets stabilize.
How Do You Spell Relief?
In today’s MLB, starting pitchers don’t last nearly as long in games as they were expected to years ago (damn I’m getting old) and this means you had better know all about each teams’ relief pitchers.
Make no mistake about it, again, in today’s times, knowing your bullpens is of the utmost importance. Teams with outstanding bullpens hold leads and win games far more often than teams whose ‘bad’ bullpens give up late runs, late leads and lose more games.
Weather
Another thing you need to know all about when betting on MLB totals is the weather. If it’s scorching hot, baseballs will be jumping off hitters’ bats while conversely, colder weather means less long balls and likely more infield outs.
While no one can consistently predict the weather (just watch your local meteorologist) if you’re betting on baseball totals, then it’s your job to know what kind of weather the game will be played in. Check your forecasts the night before and maybe early the next morning.
Weather patterns also vary throughout the long baseball calendar, which is why experienced bettors track travel spots, day games after night games, and seasonal conditions across the MLB schedule when handicapping totals.
Size Really Does Matter
Do you know the dimensions of the ballpark in the game you plan on betting on? If you don’t know them, you should. Every stadium has different wind patterns and different sized distances down the foul lines and to the fence in center field.
L.A.’s Angel Stadium of Anaheim and San Diego’s Petco Park have the shortest distances to the center field fence (396 feet) while Detroit’s Comerica and Boston’s Fenway Park have the longest (420 feet).
DYK Alert!
Did You Know that Chicago’s Wrigley Field has longer left and right-field lines than any other ballpark? Did You Know that Boston’s Fenway Park has both the tallest and shortest outfield walls?
Hitting
If you’re betting on MLB totals, then you definitely need to know about each team’s hitters and how each team is hitting the ball in recent games. Is one or both teams in the game you’re betting on knocking the ball off the cover, or are both teams struggling to score runs like crazy?
Does one team have a red-hot power hitter in the midst of a torrid, run-producing stretch, or has one team’s best hitters gone ice-cold at the plate recently? Make sure you know how each team and their top run producers are playing coming into the game you plan on betting on.
Understanding offensive production is also critical when identifying value opportunities across different betting markets. Some bettors combine totals analysis with strategies outlined in this guide to profitable underdog systems for baseball.
Shop For Lines, Don’t Cut Them
While nobody likes a line-jumper that’s trying to get ahead of you at the supermarket or your local amusement park, but if you’re betting on baseball totals, then you need to shop for the best line possible because it could save you from a half-run up to a full run or even a 30-cents difference in some instances.
Shopping for the best odds is one of the most important skills in sports betting. It’s the same concept used by bettors searching for value when applying strategies like these tips for finding quality MLB underdogs.
Comparing lines across sportsbooks is essential because totals and odds can move quickly throughout the day. Checking the MLB odds board helps bettors identify the best available numbers before placing their wagers.
By The Numbers
The most common key total numbers in baseball, are 7, 9 and 11. If you’re betting on games where the total is a half-point higher than any of these figures, you may want to use caution when betting the Over unless you’re ‘sure’ that your pick is going to pan out.
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About the Author
Henry Watkins
Henry Watkins is a Sports Writer at MyBookie. Originally from Scotland and currently residing in Metro Atlanta with his wife Penny, Henry covers a range of topics, including competitive and professional sports as well as sports business. In addition to his sports writing, he is also an author of horror fiction, with works such as Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.
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