Kelly Criterion Sports Betting StrategyBefore we go any further, let’s make it clear that the Kelly Criterion can be used by anyone, but it is not meant for everybody. The mathematics involved in the process can particularly make it a bore, if not painstaking to use if you are a recreational bettor. Many bettors have, however, tried this betting strategy successfully and it has helped many punters to improve the winnings, so you may as well try it if you are seeking similar success in sports betting.
Logic Behind the Kelly CriterionEssentially, the Kelly Criterion is a progressive betting system that recommends for you to calculate the proportion of your own funds to bet on an outcome whose odds are noticeably higher than expected, with the aim of increasing your profits and bankroll in a short span. The basic tenet behind the Kelly Criterion is that, the higher your probability of winning in a bet, the more you’re supposed to risk while the less your probability of winning, the less you are supposed to risk on that bet.
Kelly Criterion FormulaThe popularity of the Kelly Criterion has seen many analysts prescribe many variations of this betting strategy. The basic formula for the strategy, however, remains more-or-less the same, as follows:The Kelly Criterion = (bp-q)/b, where:
- B = the Decimal odds -1
- P = the probability of success
- Q = the probability of failure
- P= 0.52
- Q = 1-0.52 = 0.48
- B = 2-1 = 1.