Optimal Prop Betting Strategy

Posted by Eric Williams on Tuesday,April 11, 2017 4:46, EST in

If you love making props betting odds wagers and you’re wondering what the optimal strategy is to help you consistently cash in on pros bets whether they are season-long ventures or single-game wagers, then you’ve come to the right place.

You see, when it comes to making winning props wagers, there simply may not be a more qualified handicapper/betting analyst in the industry today. My love for props bets, both short-term game props and season-long props is both, well-known and I believe unsurpassed in the sports betting industry today. Better yet, now, I’m going to share my optimal props online betting strategies with you no matter the sporting genre you’re wagering on. Let’s get started.

Optimal Prop Betting Strategy

 

 

Short-Term or Game Props Betting

For short-term or single-game props betting, to ensure I’m making an informed wager, I look at the most recent performance of a particular player or team – and that of the team I’m wagering against.

For example, if I’m betting on how many yards Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott is going to rush for in a single game and he’s going up against a New York Giants team that shut him down in the teams’ first divisional meeting, I’m likely going to be leaning toward another stout effort from New York’s defense based on their most recent performance against Elliott.

Conversely, let’s say the Giants put Elliott on lockdown in Week 2, but have struggled against the run for several weeks before meeting the Cowboys again in Week 7. In this scenario, I’m going to be more inclined to believe that Elliott is due for a big outing against the G-Men even though they shut him down in their previous meeting.

Again, in keeping with the recent performance theme, if you’re betting on the passing yardage total on Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley and he’s thrown for at least 250 yards in three or four consecutive games. Clearly, I’d say the likelihood of McSorely topping a props odds total of 250 passing yards in his next contest would be pretty high.

However, when taking into consideration, his upcoming opponent’s recent play, that could change, if Penn State is facing a Michigan defense that hasn’t allowed a 250-yard passing day in, let’s say three games, then I’d be far more wary of expecting McSorley to reach and top the 250-yard passing plateau.

Recent performances of both, the team or player you want to bet on – and their opponent – is of utmost importance when making short-term or single game props bets.

Season-long Props Betting

When I’m making my beloved season-long props bets, I use a method I’ve developed all on my own, called the 1-3-5 method. Let’s say I’m betting on the season-long passing yards for Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. The first thing to do is look at how many passing yards Carr threw for a year ago. This figure will represent a number close to what I expect Carr to provide in the coming season, barring any team losses at significant areas like the offensive line.

Even better, go back two more years to see how many passing yards Carr threw for and average those three seasons together. If possible, go back five seasons and do the same.  This method almost always gives me a great idea of how a player like Carr will perform in the upcoming campaign.

Of course, along with the 1-3-5 method, you also have to take into consideration other factors such as, motivation, return from injury and age to name a few. However, a player’s track record over a 1-3 and 5-year span will give you a great idea of what to expect when it comes to season-long props bets.

Total Props Betting

When it comes to total props bets, the best indicator of what lies ahead is a look back at the most recent past and the additions and subtractions a team may have made during the offseason. For instance, have the Seattle Mariners or Cincinnati Reds made a habit out of winning less than half of their regular season games? Is one of both teams struggling to score the ball or giving up runs like they’re going out of style?

Did one or both of these ballclubs made some team-altering acquisitions or did they lose a big bat in the middle of their respective lineups or innings-eating starting pitcher? These are all factors to consider when making Over/Under total props bets. Make them a part of your props betting strategy and you’ll find you’ll be making more informed, wise wagers than ever.