Take Advantage of Early MLB Betting Season Uncertainty

Posted by Joe Solari on Sunday,April 24, 2016 5:18, EST in

As the only sport that allows you to bet through spring, summer and fall for nearly every day of the week, the possibilities of making big money from the MLB season are virtually listless. And the best part about Major League Baseball betting is that all you have to worry about in the MLB lines is picking winners in the money lines, as opposed to the majority of other sports that complicate things with issues such as point spreads.

Obviously, every MLB handicapper has a different style when it comes to making MLB picks, but one thing all of them agree on is the fact that due to the uncertainty and shifts at the start of the season, early-season baseball betting offers arguably the best time to beat the bookies with great-value MLB picks. Here are some of the noteworthy tips and strategies you can use to share into the success that can come with smart early season MLB betting.

How to Take Advantage of Early MLB Betting Season Uncertainty

Keep An Eye Out on Spring Training

Contrary to popular belief that sprint trainings don’t hold much value in handicapping MLB lines at the start of the season; many pundits have discovered that you can find a lot of useful information from the training camps. So, in order for you to have early-season MLB odds success, you need to follow pitchers through spring training and find out who was sharp/hot in the spring and who looked rusty/terrible, and then look to bet on them accordingly in their early- season starts. Generally, starting pitchers that have shown improvement and sharpness throughout the spring or those who are coming off a strong outing in their final tune-up are more likely to witness early-season success as opposed to their counterparts that struggled in the spring.

Studying Momentum and Motivation

When we enter a new season, most gamblers tend to focus their betting on how teams and pitchers ended their season last year. This can work quite well at times when applied well. For example, MLB betting history indicates that pitchers like James Shields and Jered Weaver tend to start the season strongly (mainly the first six weeks of the season), as opposed to the likes of Rick Porcello and Mike Pelfrey. The problem with handicapping games this way is that teams and players may have entirely unique momentums and motivations entering a new season, especially in the instance where we have several offseason shuffles in the roster. And as a result, this can affect team and individual performances positively and negatively when the season starts. Rather than being hung up on past seasons, it is thus advisable that you pay attention to the real situation on the ground, which is how a team starts a season. We can have plenty of bad pitchers and terrible teams that get hot early in the season, and vice versa with good pitchers and teams playing poorly. Don’t trouble yourself betting on good teams that have started the season cold or betting against bad teams that have started hot; trust the momentum and early season motivation irrespective of where it is coming from and ride on it until proven otherwise.

Tapping Quickly into the Value of Offseason Changes

Not all good players adapt well when they move to a new team and not all bad players play poorly in new roles; often times it all comes down to style of play in a team, regular playing opportunities and positioning in a new role, along with other related factors such as luck and motivation. And with not much statistics for Oddsmakers to work with in regards to early season performances due to these changes, the MLB lines can have major loopholes to be exploited by smart MLB cappers. For example, if you notice a pitcher who works best as a starter is moved from a struggling role as a closer to a starter, chances are that he will be performing well early in the season; something most Oddsmakers and bookies are unlikely to know. With that knowledge, you can easily bet on the new starter to lead his team to success, making tons of profits in the process at the expense of your bookmakers.

Handicapping Weather Patterns

The period of early April often features extremely cold weathers, which if often a shock to most players after spending more than a month in the warmer Florida or Arizona areas. Typically, this cold weather tends to favor pitchers, especially the fast-ballers and hard-throwers, a key reason why we often see some low-scoring games at this period. By being on the lookout for such weather patterns and how pitchers perform, you can easily strike gold in the MLB lines,  especially in total betting.

Handicapping Pitchers and Bullpens

The value of starting pitchers and their bullpens is something whose importance can’t be emphasized enough in the league. And on most occasions, it is usually this simple—A team with a solid group of starters and a great bullpen are often tough to beat early in the year, if not the entire year. So, as soon as the season starts, keep an eye out for the pitchers and bullpens that stand out above the rest, and focus your bets on them because they are more likely to lead teams into success when compared to their struggling counterparts.

Trusting Your Gut Feelings

Emotionality in sports betting is a trait that is often highly discouraged, and rightfully so. Sometimes, however, trusting your emotions can be extremely important, more so if your gut feelings are based on tangible statistics and numbers. So, just because the league says Zack Greinke won’t gel well with the Arizona Diamondbacks doesn’t mean he’ll perform badly; if you have some stats or proof to show he is likely to do otherwise, go for it.

Don’t Overvalue Heavy Favorites

Most MLB bettors, especially the recreational lot that virtually bases all its bets on what is being preached by the media, is often caught in the risky pattern of betting big favorites early on—a strategy that tends to backfire a lot. Once we are in June or the MLB playoffs, betting on heavy favorites (especially the ones who’ve proven themselves) may work well. But as for early-season betting, it is best to ride the flow of the hot starters, with the favorites only warranting your attention once they have showed the potential to play well on a day-by-day basis.

Veterans vs. Young Players

Every year, some rookies or a set of young players surprise the league with solid performances right from the start of the season. It is, however, the experienced teams with established players that are often able to provide winning results on a more trusted basis. This is because the veterans often know their roles, as opposed to the younger ones that are still trying to establish themselves with managers working on different line ups that rarely allows for sustained success.