Finding quality MLB underdogs is all about spotting hidden value and capitalizing on smart betting opportunities. Not all underdogs are created equal—factors like division rivalries, team momentum, and live betting advantages can help you identify strong plays. In this guide.
We’ll break down key strategies to help you make informed decisions and maximize your profits when betting on quality MLB underdogs.
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Table of Contents: MLB Underdogs
Do Favorites Always Win?
Finding Quality MLB Underdogs with MyBookie
What Makes an MLB Underdog a Quality Bet?
How to Analyze Pitching Matchups for Underdogs
Division Rivals and Underdog Performance
Handedness Matchups for Underdogs
Day vs. Night Game Trends for Underdogs
Top Strategies for Betting MLB Underdogs
Live Betting and Underdog Momentum
Finding Quality MLB Underdogs: Home Underdogs
Moneyline vs Run Line for Underdogs
Final Remarks on Betting MLB Underdogs
Do Favorites Always Win?
During the 2023 MLB season, the Baltimore Orioles finished with the best record in the nation at 101-61, good for a .623 percent winning percentage.
The eventual World Series Champions of the season, the Texas Rangers (90-72) had a winning percent of .556.
Deductively, even the best teams in the MLB lose quite a high number of games.
For instance, the Orioles lost 61 games (37 percent) and the Rangers lost 72 games (45 percent).
Comparably, the worst team in both the American and National Leagues, the Athletics (50-112), had a not-so- bad 30 percent winning percentage.
This underlines the fact that, in the course of the MLB betting season, general parity leads to a lot of money being made by underdog MLB bettors.
I mean, if the MLB-leading Orioles, who were favored in the majority of their games last season, lost nearly 62 percent of their games.
Underdog bettors cashed in quite handily by backing the opposite team, just in the same way such bettor made some good amount of money by siding with the nation’s worst teams like the Athletics.
Keeping the above explanations in mind, how then can we spot the quality underdog plays in the MLB odds?
Here are a couple tips that can help guide you to success in MLB underdog betting.
^ TopFinding Quality MLB Underdogs with MyBookie
Betting on MLB underdogs can be a smart strategy when you know what to look for.
The key is finding value in lines where a team’s chances of winning are better than what the odds show.
With 162 games in the regular season, underdog value is everywhere if you do your research.
Most casual bettors lean toward favorites.
This causes inflated lines for popular teams.
Sharp bettors go the other way, looking for underdogs that the public is sleeping on.
These are the bets that can provide the best return over time.
Underdogs don’t have to win half the time to be profitable.
A +150 dog only needs to win 40% of the time to be worth betting.
At MyBookie, you’ll find the tools and odds to help you spot these opportunities and place smart wagers all season long.
Game Details
- Teams: MLB Teams (Varies by Day)
- Location: Stadiums Across the Country
- Time: Daily from April to October
- Odds: Updated Regularly on MyBookie
What Makes an MLB Underdog a Quality Bet?
A quality underdog is not just any team with plus odds.
It’s a team where the line undervalues their actual chance to win.
This could be because of recent performance or hidden strengths not reflected in public perception.
You want to find games where the favorite is being overvalued.
This happens a lot when a big-name pitcher or popular team is playing.
If the underdog has a solid starter or favorable trends, that’s a signal to dig deeper.
Look for underdogs that match up well against the opponent.
If their bullpen is rested, or they’ve been hitting well in recent games, that adds value.
Betting these games over the long haul can bring solid profits.
Another edge comes from line movement.
If the public is betting heavy on the favorite, and the line doesn’t shift much, it could mean smart bettors are backing the dog.
These are the kinds of signals to track.
^ TopHow to Analyze Pitching Matchups for Underdogs
Pitching drives baseball betting lines more than any other factor.
If you want to win on underdogs, look at the starting pitchers closely.
Look at recent form, not just season stats.
A pitcher with poor season numbers but strong results in his last three outings could be turning a corner.
If he’s facing a name-brand starter who’s showing signs of decline, that’s a good setup for underdog value.
Also look at how a pitcher does against certain lineups.
Some starters dominate left-handed hitters, others struggle with power-heavy teams.
Matching styles matter in MLB betting.
Finally, keep an eye on pitch counts and bullpen depth.
A starter with a short leash on a team with a shaky bullpen is a red flag.
The better the support behind the starter, the better your chances with an underdog.
Looking Out for Small Underdogs with Better Starting Pitchers:
Oftentimes, you will find that a team that has their ace pitcher on the mound will perform better than their opponent, whether they are the underdog or favorites in the MLB lines.
Lefty/Righty Situations:
Some teams really struggle when facing right-handed pitchers, while other struggle against left-handed pitchers.
When handicapping underdog MLB bets, be sure to know how teams perform in such situations and factor such performances into your bets accordingly.
^ TopDivision Rivals and Underdog Performance
Division games bring extra motivation.
These teams play each other often, and the players know each other well.
This familiarity can level the playing field and give underdogs a chance.
Home division underdogs are especially valuable.
If they lost the first game of a series as a favorite, and now are getting plus money, it can be a good time to strike.
Public bettors often chase the team that won Game 1, pushing value on the other side.
Teams with bad records can still play hard in division games.
Even when out of the playoff picture, spoiling a rival’s season is a motivator.
Betting trends show these teams win often enough to be profitable at the right number.
Focus on the line range too.
Dogs between +100 and +145 in division spots tend to deliver more value than extreme longshots.
That’s the range where oddsmakers are trying to tempt favorite money, opening the door for smart bets.
Recent Performances:
Just like winning streaks and losing streaks, teams with strong recent performances are more likely to succeed than those with shaky performances in their recent games.
If, for example, a team that has won 9 of its last 10 games is playing against one that has won just 2 of its last 10 games.
Chances are that the one on a 9-1 run will succeed (even if it is an underdog) against the one on a 2-8 run.
Winning Streaks vs. Losing Streaks:
Forget about the “Gamblers Fallacy,” numbers don’t lie.
Streaky pitchers, streaky bullpens and streaky hitters bring a lot of positive value, just in the same way fading opponents on a skid can be crucial.
Don’t deceive yourself into chasing a team on an extended losing streak with the hope that it will win soon, that strategy will leave you disappointed in a big way.
Instead, learn to trust the system of backing solid and proven winners with good winning streaks.
^ TopHandedness Matchups for Underdogs
MLB teams don’t hit all pitchers the same way.
Some crush right-handers, others do better against lefties.
When betting underdogs, this split can provide the edge you need.
Look at a team’s stats over the last 10 to 15 games vs left or right-handers.
If they’re hitting .280 vs lefties and facing a struggling southpaw, that’s a good sign.
Even a team with a losing record can have matchup value.
Pitchers also have splits.
If a starter struggles with left-handed hitters and the underdog lineup is stacked with lefties, you have another angle.
These small advantages add up in MLB betting.
Don’t rely only on full-season numbers.
Recent form tells a better story.
Hot teams with good platoon splits make for strong underdog bets, especially when the public is ignoring those factors.
False Favorites:
In this MLB betting tip, the emphasis is on finding those MLB underdogs who you think should have actually been the favorite in a game yet are installed as dogs.
This is either due to public support for the opposing team or some ill-timed bad performance in their previous game.
If you find such an underdog, don’t hesitate to back them up.
^ TopDay vs. Night Game Trends for Underdogs
Some teams play better under the lights.
Others do well in day games.
These trends matter more than people think, especially with underdogs.
Teams coming off night games may be sluggish in early day starts.
If the favorite had a late travel schedule, and the dog is well-rested, that’s something to consider.
Situational edges like this can boost the value of your pick.
Also look at starting pitcher trends in different times of day.
Some guys thrive in day games with better visibility.
Others struggle under the lights.
Match these trends to the game setting for extra insight.
Day/night splits can be key when two average teams meet.
If the dog has a clear edge in game timing, it might be enough to swing the outcome in your favor.
^ TopTop Strategies for Betting MLB Underdogs
One strong strategy is betting early-season underdogs.
In April and May, oddsmakers are still adjusting.
Teams are still finding their identity.
This opens the door for value.
Road underdogs with losing records against teams with winning records often get big prices.
These teams still win around 48% of the time and deliver positive ROI in the early months.
MyBookie offers great coverage on these matchups.
Underdogs after scoring 10+ runs also hold value.
The public tends to think teams will cool off, but hot bats can carry over.
When that team is at home as a dog, the numbers show long-term profits.
Another great strategy is focusing on “who’s hot.” Teams on a short win streak but still priced as underdogs are often good bets.
This includes small-market teams that aren’t getting public attention.
Strong Bullpens:
Many bettors often overlook the importance of bullpens, and that can easily lead to wrong picks.
A strong bullpen is a crucial component of winning.
Backing a team with a decent underdog team with a strong bullpen greatly increases your chances of winning your bets in the moneyline.
^ TopLive Betting and Underdog Momentum
Live betting can be a way to increase profit when an underdog starts strong.
If the dog takes an early lead, the odds will shift fast.
This can give you better mid-game value than pregame lines.
Use live betting to double down on a strong underdog showing.
You already did the research, now you’re seeing the result.
Just make sure to watch the bullpen and in-game decisions before jumping in.
Momentum is huge in baseball.
If a favorite’s starter leaves early or the defense makes errors, it opens the door for the dog to hang around.
Be ready to strike if the situation flips mid-game.
At MyBookie, live betting is fast and easy.
You’ll see real-time lines that reflect the flow of the game, letting you take advantage of underdog momentum shifts instantly.
^ TopFinding Quality MLB Underdogs: Home Underdogs
Home advantage isn’t as felt in the MLB as it is in other sports, but the value is still there.
This is especially the case for small home dogs and underdogs in MLB divisional games.
^ TopMoneyline vs Run Line for Underdogs
Betting underdogs on the moneyline is straightforward.
If they win, you cash.
The return is bigger than betting a favorite, which is why this strategy works long-term.
The run line gives you +1.5 runs but a smaller payout.
This can be safer if you think the dog will keep it close but may not win.
It’s a good choice in pitching duels or low-scoring games.
Use the moneyline when the underdog has a real shot to win outright.
Use the run line when you expect a tight contest.
Avoid laying runs with favorites unless you’re very confident.
Compare both options before you place a bet.
Sometimes the difference in risk and reward makes the run line the smarter play.
Other times, the moneyline offers too much value to pass up.
^ TopFinal Remarks on Betting MLB Underdogs
At the end of the day, you should remember that underdog MLB betting, though a proven profitable system, calls for patience and being strategic with selective wagers.
The 162-game MLB season is a marathon and not a sprint.
So you are better off taking things precariously and calculatedly, rather than rushing ahead of yourself with your choices and picks.
Finding value with MLB underdogs takes research and patience.
But if you follow the tips above, you’ll give yourself a better shot at long-term success.
Pitching matchups, recent form, division trends, and live betting opportunities all matter.
At MyBookie, you’ll find the odds, stats, and tools you need to bet smarter.
Focus on the numbers, not the names, and you’ll find underdog value across the full MLB season.
Bet smart. Bet value.
Bet with MyBookie.
MyBookie’s Sportsbook Betting Guide | Quality MLB Underdogs
Now that you understand the importance of finding quality MLB underdogs, dive deeper into MLB underdog betting strategies with MyBookie’s Sports Betting Guide.
It’s time to enhance your betting knowledge and make smarter wagers when targeting quality MLB underdogs!
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