If you are new to MLB betting, there are a few things you need to understand about betting on the sport—and one of those things is that betting on the totals is probably the most profitable way to bet on baseball, especially when analyzing the umpires and how their strike zones impact the game.
If you are wondering why, the simple answer is because of umpires.
MyBookie Teaches You to Analyze the Umpires And Their Effect On MLB Betting Totals
Sports Betting 101: urn Umpire Tendencies into Winning MLB Totals Bets
How to Bet on Sports | MyBookie wants you to be a better gambler with our Sports Betting Guide
Table of Contents: Betting MLB Betting Totals
A Comprehensive Beginner’s Betting Guide for MLB Betting Totals
Why Umpires Matter in MLB Betting
Impact of "Pitcher’s Umpires" vs. "Hitter’s Umpires"
How Weather & Ballparks Interact with Umpires
Common Mistakes Bettors Make with Umpire Data
Betting Strategies on Betting MLB
Some Handy Examples
Putting Down Your Bet
Conclusion On Umpires And Their Effect On MLB Betting Totals
A Comprehensive Beginner’s Betting Guide for MLB Betting Totals
Look at the pitchers, hitters, and bullpens when betting MLB totals.
But there’s another piece that matters just as much.
That piece is the home plate umpire.
Each umpire has their own way of calling balls and strikes.
Some give pitchers a wider zone, while others make them work for every call.
This difference can swing the total runs scored in either direction.
These numbers help paint a full picture of what kind of game to expect.
Umpire tendencies are not guesses—they’re based on real outcomes over dozens or even hundreds of games.
Umpires and Total Runs
When it comes to baseball, people are so preoccupied with researching the statistics of the starting pitchers vs team records, relievers, opponent’s batting average, and other factors that they completely ignore one of the most important aspects of the game: the officiating.
Unlike other sports, baseball umpires have a very big impact on the totals of the games they officiate, because they have direct control of how the game goes.
With no defined strike zone, the umpire to decide how big or small the strike zone is, which ultimately affects how many total runs are scored in the game.
^ TopWhy Umpires Matter in MLB Betting
Umpires decide what’s a ball and what’s a strike.
That affects how hitters and pitchers perform.
A bigger strike zone helps pitchers.
A smaller one helps batters.
Over a full game, these calls shape how many runs are scored.
More balls mean more walks and longer innings.
More strikes mean quicker outs and shorter games.
That’s why umpire style can play a major role in totals betting.
Some umpires have reputations that stretch back years.
They may consistently favor pitchers with generous strike zones, leading to lower scores.
Others make pitchers work for every edge, forcing them to throw more pitches and raising the chance of runs scored.
Every bettor should check the home plate assignment before the first pitch.
If a pitcher is used to working the corners and gets a tight-zone umpire, that could change their performance.
If a team relies on walks and faces an umpire who never calls anything outside a tight box, it might limit their chances.
^ TopImpact of "Pitcher’s Umpires" vs. "Hitter’s Umpires"
A pitcher’s umpire calls a wide zone.
That leads to more strikeouts and fewer runs.
Betting unders in these games can pay off.
Doug Eddings, for example, is known for helping games stay under due to his big zone.
A hitter’s umpire has a tighter zone.
That makes it harder for pitchers to get outs.
These games often see more runs, making the over more likely.
Umpires like Joe Brinkman fit this mold, with games often going over the posted total.
You can find out which umpire is behind the plate before the game.
MLB posts assignments publicly.
Several websites track each umpire’s tendencies with detailed stats.
Looking at those stats gives you a clear signal on how a game might unfold.
It’s also useful to track how teams perform under specific umpires.
Some pitchers have strong records when working with pitcher-friendly umps.
Others might struggle if the umpire limits their usual edges.
Matching pitcher history with umpire trends can give you a clear read on totals.
Some teams also walk more or strike out more based on the umpire.
Teams that work deep counts might lose that edge if the ump calls strikes on borderline pitches.
This could limit on-base chances and keep totals low even with strong lineups on paper.
^ TopHow Weather & Ballparks Interact with Umpires
Weather affects totals on its own.
But the umpire’s zone can make weather more or less important.
Wind blowing out at a park like Wrigley Field plus a hitter-friendly ump can lead to high scoring games.
Ballpark size matters too.
A small park like Fenway plus a tight zone can add up to overs.
A big park plus a wide zone can lean under.
Each element adds up, and when multiple factors line up, you get stronger bets.
Cold weather makes the ball travel less.
Combine that with a pitcher’s umpire and you’re looking at a lower-scoring game.
On hot days, balls fly farther.
That helps hitters, especially with a hitter’s umpire.
You can’t just look at one factor—you need to combine weather, umpire, and ballpark size to get the full story.
Don’t forget about the bullpen.
If both teams rely on weak relief pitching, a tight zone may lead to more base runners late in the game.
But with a wide zone, those same bullpens may escape trouble.
Umpire style can change how bullpens perform under pressure, especially late in close games.
Also consider the time of day.
Games played in shadows or under the lights can impact hitter vision.
If you pair that with a wide zone, hitting becomes even tougher.
That’s another reason to match umpire data with every game detail before placing your bet.
^ TopCommon Mistakes Bettors Make with Umpire Data
One big mistake is trusting small samples.
Just because an umpire called a few overs last week doesn’t mean it’s a trend.
You need enough games to see real patterns.
Always use long-term data over short-term spikes.
Another mistake is betting only on umpire trends.
The rest of the matchup still matters.
You can’t ignore pitcher form, team stats, or injuries.
The umpire is part of the picture, not the full puzzle.
Some bettors don’t adjust for rule changes.
If the league cracks down on how the strike zone is enforced, umpire behavior may shift.
Trends from last year might not hold up.
Always check if league-wide rules may have changed how umpires operate behind the plate.
It’s also risky to overvalue one umpire.
Even if an ump has a strong lean, oddsmakers may have already priced it in.
For example, Todd Tichenor is known for high-scoring games, and books may adjust totals up when he’s behind the plate.
Be careful when the edge is already baked into the number.
Many bettors also ignore how teams interact with umpires.
Some teams might not change much no matter who is calling the game.
Others may thrive or struggle based on the strike zone.
Blindly following umpire stats without seeing the bigger picture can lead to mistakes.
^ TopBetting Strategies on Betting MLB
First step is to check who’s umpiring.
Look that up before making your pick.
Then compare their trends with how the teams usually perform in similar spots.
If an ump favors the under and both starters are sharp, that might be a solid angle to back the under.
Next, match the umpire’s tendencies with the pitcher’s style.
A strike-thrower can thrive with a big zone.
A wild pitcher might walk more with a small one.
That changes the expected total.
This matchup can tell you if the edge leans toward the offense or defense.
You can also pair umpire data with offensive stats.
If a good hitting team gets a small zone, that can boost their run chances.
If a cold-hitting team gets a pitcher’s ump, that might reinforce the under.
Player prop bettors can also use this info when deciding to bet on hits, walks, or strikeouts.
Watch for live betting chances too.
If you see an ump giving consistent calls in one direction, that can help with in-game over/under bets.
Stay alert during the first few innings.
If an ump is giving pitchers every corner, consider betting the under live—especially if the pregame line hasn’t shifted yet.
It’s also smart to avoid chasing trends with no context.
If a total has moved based on public info about the ump, your edge might be gone.
But if it hasn’t moved yet, and the matchup supports the trend, that’s where the value can be found.
^ TopSome Handy Examples
To help you better understand this, consider baseball umpire Doug Eddings.
He is one of the umpires that pitchers love officiating their games because he has a very big strike zone.
A big strike zone benefits a pitcher because they have more room to throw the ball, which allows them to get batters out more easily, keeping the run totals down.
This statement can also be backed up with statistics.
During the 2006 baseball season, Doug Eddings officiated 35 baseball games, in 20 of those games, the totals were under, and two of the games ended up in a push.
He finished the season with 61 percent of the games he officiated finishing under the projected totals.
This means you would have made a lot of money betting the under in games he officiated.
During the same season, John Hirschbeck, an umpire that also has a big strike zone, officiated 23 games, and the totals were under in 16 of them.
On the flip side of all this, other umpires have smaller strike zones, which means that the batters have the advantage over the pitchers who don’t have much room to operate with.
Smaller strike zones usually mean more offense, so the totals in the game are likely to go over.
Like the pitchers with big strike zones, this can be used to your advantage.
Umpires like Joe Brinkman, who has a small strike zone, officiated games that went over 9 out of 13 times.
Other small strike zone umps, like Gerry Crawford and Fieldin Culbreth, officiated games that went over the totals 60 percent of the time.
^ TopPutting Down Your Bet
These statistics show just how much influence umpires have over a game’s total, and that you can make money betting on totals regardless if the umpire has a big strike zone or a small one.
The most important thing you have to do in order to make this information work for you is to look at the umpire’s officiating the games and their tendencies.
If the umpire has a big strike zone, then you bet the under in the game, and if he has a small strike zone, you bet the over.
If you intend on betting on baseball, you should read up on the umpires officiating the game.
There is a lot of information about baseball umpires online, so you shouldn’t have any problems finding out all you need to know about them and the way they officiate games.
Don’t rely solely on this information when placing your bets.
You still need to do your research on the game, and check the statistics of the starting pitchers, relievers and batters, because they still have a lot to do with the outcome of the game.
^ TopConclusion On Umpires And Their Effect On MLB Betting Totals
Umpires are one of the most overlooked parts of MLB betting.
But their impact on game totals is huge.
They help shape the pace and score of every game they work.
Strike zone size, consistency, and bias all change the flow of the action.
If you’re betting on MLB totals, start tracking umpire tendencies.
Match that data with pitcher types, weather, and ballparks.
This extra step can turn a small lean into a confident bet.
And over time, that can make a real difference in your results.
Smart bettors use every angle available.
Umpire data isn’t a secret, but it’s often ignored.
With a little research and consistency, this info can give you an edge that others miss.
Combine umpire trends with all other tools, and you’ll be more prepared than most MLB bettors out there.
Make umpire analysis a regular part of your totals betting process.
Over the long run, it can help improve your win rate and sharpen your decision-making.
Every edge matters when you’re trying to beat the number.
^ Top
MyBookie’s Sportsbook Betting Guide | MLB Betting Totals
Since you now understand the basics of MLB betting, dive deeper into winning strategies and tips with MyBookie’s betting guide to baseball.
It’s time to sharpen your edge, analyze the umpires, and make smarter decisions when placing wagers on every pitch, inning, and total this season!
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