For anyone with experience online betting on MLB odds, assuming a winning betting system is a lot easier said than done, given the vast number of games in Major League Baseball season and the headache-inducing shift between favorite and underdog roles in MLB betting boards. If you’re new to baseball wagering, reviewing this beginner guide to MLB betting can help explain how baseball betting markets work before exploring more advanced underdog strategies.
Because of the long MLB calendar, bettors who understand how the MLB schedule affects betting can often identify situational value before sportsbooks fully adjust their odds.
MLB Underdog Betting — Key Concepts
Shopping for Best Underdogs
The ultimate betting rule when shopping for underdogs is that you should look for those underdogs that offer a chance for High Return with Minimal Risk.
In this regard, the underdogs you should take note of the underdogs that are priced between +120 and +150.
Why you ask? Well, for starters, a team that is favored between -130 and -160 essentially means that the favorites have an edge, but aren’t clearly superior.
With that, the underdogs in these tossup games can easily upset the odds and offer you some good betting value in the MLB lines. To understand how these prices appear in real markets, compare current numbers in the MLB betting odds section.
Typical MLB Underdog Odds Ranges
Near toss-up games where sportsbooks expect a competitive matchup.
Moderate underdogs that still have realistic upset potential.
Stronger favorites are expected, but situational value can appear.
Large underdogs usually tied to major pitching or roster disadvantages.
Handicapping the Pitchers
Starting pitchers plays the biggest role in MLB lines for obvious reasons, so having a quality starter in an underdog team can offer tremendous value in that team.
When handicapping the starting pitchers, take a keen consideration of factors like lefty vs. righty splits, home vs. away splits, and winning vs. losing streaks, among others.
And while you are at it, remember to consider other related factors like offensive trends and bullpens that can offer excellent values in games and, in turn, leading to excellent wins by the dogs.
Separating Vigs and Public Perception from True Value
In any given game, there will always be one team that is stronger than the other, but on a good number of occasions, the favored team is not usually the strongest.
Lines makers are well-aware of the strong teams, but may often decide to favor a team simply because the public loves to bet on it.
In addition, the Oddsmakers are into the habit of overinflating lines with a lot of juice to ensure profitability in books.
The key to getting best-value underdogs is avoiding that extra juice and finding the real value of the MLB teams you want to bet on. Many bettors also combine these evaluations with long-term projections used in MLB futures betting markets.
Betting on Underdogs at the End of Long Road Trips
Winning on the road is never easy is MLB betting, particularly late in the season when we have grueling road trips of 7 to 10 games.
Following such punishing road trips, coming back to home is often a welcome opportunity for these teams, and MLB betting history indicates that such teams tend to feed on their strong home support to perform well.
This feeding into the energetic atmosphere at home habitually encourages success for the home teams, favorites and underdogs alike.
Early Season Underdog Betting
At the start of a new season, it is easy to catch the Lines makers off-guard, as they are still learning the new players in the league, new rosters and new management styles.
For smart cappers who’ve already done their research about new rosters and teams in the off season, you can easily make some good money in the MLB lines, especially if you are able to find those teams that have been flat-out wrong installed as underdogs either at home or on the road in the month of April. Early-season value is one of the main opportunities discussed in this guide on how to take advantage of the early MLB season.
MLB Underdog Evaluation Framework
Check ERA trends, strikeout rates, and bullpen availability.
Winning streaks and recent offensive production often signal hidden value.
Public betting pressure can artificially inflate favorite odds.
Travel fatigue, road trips, and rest days affect performance.
Late Season Underdog Betting
Once the early season uncertainties and normalcy resumes in the MLB lines, you can still find a couple of underdogs to bet on using the following criteria.
First, underdogs in tight divisional races tend to perform well against the favorites around, especially if they won the day prior to the game you want to bet on.
The next category of underdogs to bet on after May (particularly when the season is about to come to an end) are those teams that have been holding their own quite well in the season and need to win a given number of games to win a divisional title or get into the playoffs.
Having a shot at winning something acts as an extra incentive for such underdogs to up their performances, and in most occasions, this often works to their advantage against teams that barely have anything to fight for in the remaining part of the season.
For a complete overview of strategies, odds formats, and betting markets across baseball, see the full MLB betting guide.
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About the Author
Henry Watkins
Henry Watkins is a Sports Writer at MyBookie. Originally from Scotland and currently residing in Metro Atlanta with his wife Penny, Henry covers a range of topics, including competitive and professional sports as well as sports business. In addition to his sports writing, he is also an author of horror fiction, with works such as Karaoke Night, Crueller, and Off The Grid.
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