Monday Night Football: Bucs at Chiefs Odds, 2024 NFL Expert Analysis & Picks for Week 9

Four seasons ago, the Buccaneers beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl – still the only loss in four trips to the big game for Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes.

There’s a rematch to close Week 9 on Monday, albeit with Baker Mayfield and not Tom Brady under center for Tampa Bay. K.C. is nearly a double-digit favorite on the NFL odds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers MNF Lines +340

Evans & Godwin

The Bucs played without star wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – neither of whom will play on Monday with Godwin done for the year – last Sunday and lost 31-26 at home to Atlanta to fall out of first place in the NFC South. Baker Mayfield completed 37 of 50 passes for 330 yards with three touchdowns and Mayfield finished with his third straight 300-yard performance and third-highest passing yardage total of the campaign as well. Mayfield also extended his streak of games with at least three touchdown passes to four contests, connecting with Cade Otton (five, four yards) and Rachaad White (18 yards) for his trio of scoring tosses.

The Statistics

Tampa Bay has generated 400+ yards of offense in three consecutive games and four total times this season. The four-such games are tied for the fourth-most such games in the NFL this season, with all four occurrences happening since Week 4. Mayfield has the second-highest passer rating by a Tampa Bay quarterback through eight games of any QB who has started at least five of the team’s first eight games (104.9), trailing only Tom Brady in 2021 (108.6). Since his arrival in Tampa Bay in 2023, Mayfield leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (49) and ranks fourth in passing yards (6,233).

.@bakermayfield is in safe hands with 7⃣8⃣ 💪 pic.twitter.com/MwMR2Lxvul

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) November 3, 2024

With contributions from White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay’s running back corps ranks first in the NFL in scrimmage yards (967) and receiving yards (365) since Week 4, while ranking fourth in rushing yards (602) during that span. The Buccaneers are the only team in the NFL with three different running backs with 250+ yards from scrimmage this season (Irving – 559, White – 492, Tucker – 266). All three Tampa Bay running backs are averaging over 5.0 yards per touch this season. Tampa Bay’s 5.1 rushing yards per attempt this season is the team’s highest average through eight games in team history.

Through nine weeks, Tampa is converting on an NFL-best 52.53% of their third-down attempts overall. Meanwhile, their Chiefs have played extremely good defense in a variety of categories and are ranked 12th in defensive third-down rate (34.94%).

Jalen McMillan

Mayfield could be missing rookie wideout McMillan this week as he was limited at Saturday’s practice due to a hamstring injury and subsequently was listed as questionable for Monday. His status won’t be confirmed until about 90 minutes before Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff — along with fellow WR Sterling Shepard (hamstring). Also questionable are Irving (toe), safety Tykee Smith (concussion) and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot).

Antoine Winfield Jr.

Winfield previously missed four games earlier this season with a foot injury but Coach Todd Bowles indicated that his All-Pro safety would be ready for the Chiefs game. Linebacker Lavonte David, the team’s leading tackler, suffered an ankle sprain on Sunday against the Falcons and did not practice on Thursday or Friday. He was briefly on the field with a helmet on during the portion of practice open to the media on Saturday and Bowles indicated that he would be able to play on Monday night in Kansas City.

The Buccaneers are 14-14 all-time in Monday games. Including this week, 8-of-9 of Tampa Bay’s games this season have been against teams that currently sit above .500 on the season.

Kansas City Chiefs MNF Lines -461

The Record

The Chiefs tied their franchise record with 13 straight wins – including playoffs – thanks to a 27-20 win at Las Vegas last week when QB Patrick Mahomes became the fastest player in NFL history to throw for 30,000 career yards. The winning streak is the longest in the NFL since they also won 13 in a row during the 2019-20 seasons. Kansas City is the seventh reigning Super Bowl champions to win each of their first seven games, joining the 2015 and 2019 New England Patriots, 2011 Green Bay Packers, 2007 Indianapolis Colts, 1998 Denver Broncos and 1990 San Francisco 49ers.

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes completed 27 of 38 pass attempts for 262 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while rushing six times for 17 yards in the win. Mahomes got back on track after failing to throw a touchdown in consecutive games as he threw a pair of touchdowns for the first time since Week 3 against Atlanta. Mahomes recorded his 70th career game with at least two touchdown passes and became the fourth player in NFL history with 70 such games in his first eight career seasons, joining Hall of Famers Peyton Manning (74 games) and Dan Marino (72) as well as Russell Wilson (72).

NFL Passing Interceptions Leaders – 2024

Jordan Love (GB) 9
Baker Mayfield (TB) 9
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 9
Dak Prescott (DAL) 8
Gardner Minshew II (LV) 8

(Thru first 8 weeks)

— NFL Analytics & Stats (@gofbanalytics) November 1, 2024

The two-time MVP Mahomes has 81 career regular-season wins and surpassed Manning (80 wins) and Ben Roethlisberger (80) for the third-most wins by a starting quarterback in his first eight seasons in NFL history. Only Tom Brady (86 wins) and Wilson (86) have more. Mahomes has 96 career wins, including the postseason, and surpassed Wilson (95 wins) for the second-most wins, including the postseason, by a starting quarterback in his first eight seasons in NFL history. Only Brady (100 wins) has more. Mahomes is the third quarterback ever to record three career winning streaks of 12-or-more games, including the postseason, joining Brady (five such streaks) and Manning (three).

Travis Kelce

Kelce recorded his 75th career regular-season touchdown reception and surpassed Jason Witten (74) for the fifth-most touchdown receptions by a tight end in NFL history. Only Antonio Gates (116 touchdown receptions), Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez (111), Rob Gronkowski (92) and Jimmy Graham (89) have more. Kelce had 10 receptions in Week 8, his 11th career game with at least 10 receptions, tied with Zach Ertz (11 games) and Jason Witten (11) for the second-most such games by a tight end in NFL history. Only Gonzalez (15 games) has more.

Kansas City has now held 28 consecutive opponents under 28 total points (including the playoffs), extending what was already the longest streak for any team in 17 seasons. It’s the first streak of its kind since the Baltimore Ravens compiled a 29-game streak between the 2005-07 seasons. The Chiefs have held more than half of those opponents (15) under 20 points during the streak.

Kansas City held Las Vegas to just 33 net rushing yards last Sunday, marking the fifth time in seven games that the Chiefs held the opposition under 100 yards as a team. Kansas City has now yielded an average of just 2.96 yards-per-carry to opposing running backs.

Of the 83 third downs that Kansas City’s defense has faced so far this season, only 22 have needed three or fewer yards to be converted. Opponents are 12 of 22 on those plays, for a conversion rate of 54.5%. On all other third downs, opponents are 17 of 61, or 27.9%. The Chiefs have forced opposing offenses into third downs of 10 or more yards 23 times, which is a rather large percentage of the 83 attempts overall. Only three of those have been converted.

Injuries

The Chiefs are pretty healthy for Monday with only WR JuJu Smith-Schuster ruled out among relevant players thus far. It’s his second straight game missed. Cornerback Nazeeh Johnson (concussion) is also out.

How to Watch MNF Bucs at Chiefs Odds

When: Monday, 8:15 PM ET
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
TV: ESPN, ABC
Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
Stream Option: ESPN+

Buccaneers vs Chiefs Series History

Tampa Bay leads the all-time series 8-7 and won the biggest matchup four years ago, 31-9 in Super Bowl LV in Tampa, the final Super Bowl win of Tom Brady’s Hall of Fame career. The clubs played again in Tampa in the 2022 regular season and the Chiefs won 41-31 in the final NFL matchup between Brady and Kansas City star Patrick Mahomes.

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