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Cubs vs. Milwaukee MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Cubs vs. Milwaukee | MLB Expert Betting Analysis

Written by on August 26, 2022

Featured Sports Betting Odds, MLB Betting News
The playoff-hopeful Milwaukee Brewers return home off a disappointing 2-4 road trip and they simply can’t afford to lose games against bad teams like the Chicago Cubs on Friday. The Brew Crew are solid favorites on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Cubs at Brewers MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Chicago?

Friday starts the Cubs’ longest road trip of the season, a nine-game 10-day sojourn through Milwaukee (3 games), Toronto (3 games beginning Monday) and St. Louis (3 games starting Sept. 2). Will the Cubs have All-Star catcher Willson Contreras for this one? Contreras missed a fourth consecutive game Thursday due to a left ankle sprain, but the Cubs don’t view it as a major concern, as manager David Ross said he expected the 30-year-old backstop to be back in the starting nine Friday. The Cubs have utilized 57 players this season and 34 who have made their Cubs debuts. The 57 players are tied for third-most in the majors this season behind Pittsburgh (60) and the Angels (58). Chicago last year used a single-season major league record 69 players, with 44 making their team debut. Ian Happ has a career-high 33 doubles, second -most among N.L. outfielders behind the Mets’ Jeff McNeil (34), who also plays infield. Happ is one of three switch-hitters this season to reach the 30-double mark (also José RamÍrez of the Guardians and Mets’ Starling Marte). It’s lefty Justin Steele (4-7) scheduled Friday. Steele allowed no runs on two hits and one walk over six innings last Sunday against the Brewers, striking out nine. He did not factor into the decision. Steele lowered his ERA to 3.25 on the season and now has three straight quality starts. Additionally, he has recorded 39 strikeouts in 26.1 innings in his last five starts after recording less than a strikeout per inning up to that point. Steele leads all Cubs pitchers with 120 strikeouts and owns a 1.47 ERA (8 ER/49.0 IP) since June 29. Steele will face the Brewers for the 10th time in his career (eighth start). In seven starts against Milwaukee, he has a 1-2 record with a 2.86 ERA (11 ER/34.2 IP). He owns a 0-1 record with a 3.29 ERA (5 ER/13.2 IP) in three career starts against the Brewers at American Family Field, where batters own a .204 average against him (11-for-54) and a .680 OPS.

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers are 31-24 at home, going 9-6-3 in series play. With 39 games left on the slate, Milwaukee plays twice as many at American Family Field than on the road. (26-13) Of the 13 series remaining, just four of those are against teams with a winning record. With a possible game 163 tiebreaker no longer a part of MLB, the Brewers would have to finish a game ahead of the San Diego Padres for the final NL Wild Card spot since the Friars took the regular season series against the Brew Crew. The Brewers come off a 12-6 loss at the Dodgers on Wednesday to complete a six-game trip. Hunter Renfroe was a bright spot, going 3-for-5 with a two-run home run and an RBI double. Through 329 at-bats this season, Renfroe is slashing .246/.309/.508 with 23 homers and 53 RBI. Willy Adames went 3-for-4 with a solo home run, a two-run double and two runs scored. He opened his big night with a solo homer off Andrew Heaney in the top of the first inning before looping back around for a two-run double in the top of the seventh. Overall this season, the 26-year-old shortstop is slashing .226/.291/.460 with 25 home runs, 73 RBI and five steals across 402 at-bats. Over his last 23 games, infielder Keston Hiura is batting .294 with 8 HR and 12 RBI. Hiura has produced a .377 OBP/.662 SLG/1.038 OPS during this stretch. It’s Freddy Peralta (4-3) on the mound here. Peralta did not factor into the decision against the Cubs last Saturday, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out five and walking three over six innings. Peralta earned a quality start but with the game going to extra innings, he did not factor into the decision. He threw 54 of 95 pitches for strikes and allowed two runs to score on a Willson Contreras homer in the fifth inning. The effort was his third quality start of the year and lowered his ERA to 4.08. Peralta is 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA in 13 career games/8 starts vs. Chicago (48ip, 19er), including 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 2 starts this season (10ip, 5er).

Game Trends

  • Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games.
  • Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.
  • Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 games following an off day.
  • Brewers are 10-4 in their last 14 during game 1 of a series.
  • Cubs are 4-9 in the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee.
  • Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Milwaukee.

Expert Prediction

  • Brewers 4, Cubs 3
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