D-Backs vs Phillies NLCS Odds and Game 6 Prediction

The Philadelphia Phillies might have the best home-field advantage in all of American sports right now as the NLCS shifts back to the City of Brotherly Love on Monday afternoon for Game 6 with the Phils up 3-2 and favored on the MLB odds to clinch a return trip to the World Series. 2023 MLB Playoffs Expert Analysis | MyBookie Sportsbook | NL Championship Series Game 6: Diamondbacks vs Phillies

How to Bet Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 5:07 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Merrill Kelly/Aaron Nola
TV: TBS
Stream/gameday audio: TBS app
Opening MLB Lines: Phillies -180, Diamondbacks +160 (total 8)

Why Bet on Arizona?

The Diamondbacks really never had much shot in Saturday’s Game 5, losing 6-1 at home to fall down 3-2 in the series. Alek Thomas went deep for a second straight day with his solo homer in the 7th inning off Zack Wheeler for the one run. It’s the second time this postseason he’s homered in consecutive games (also Game 2 of the NLWC at Milwaukee and Game 1 of the NLDS at Los Angeles-NL). It’s the fifth time in D-Backs postseason history that a player has homered in consecutive games. Thomas is the only player in team history to do it twice. No player in D-Backs history has homered in three consecutive postseason games.

Thomas is also the first D-Backs player in team history with four home runs in a single postseason ahead of teammate Gabriel Moreno (three this postseason), Chris Young (three in 2011) and Luis González (three in 2001).

Ketel Marte had a hit and has now hit safely in each of his first 14 career postseason games, the second-longest hit streak to begin a postseason career in MLB history. Only Atlanta’s Marquis Grissom had a longer streak (hit safely in his first 15 career Postseason games). This postseason, Marte is slashing .372/.400/.605 (1.005 OPS) with four doubles, two homers, five RBI and six runs scored. In his 14 career Postseason games, Marte is slashing .383/.403/.667 (1.070 OPS) with nine extra-base hits, seven RBI and 10 runs scored.

Remains to be seen if Tommy Pham starts Game 6 as he was not in the starting lineup for Game 5 in a minor surprise. Pham has been slumping mightily, though, hitting just .229/.250/.314 with just one homer, one RBI and an 11/1 K/BB ratio during the postseason.

It’s right-hander Merrill Kelly on the hill. Kelly was burned by the long ball in last Tuesday night’s loss to the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLCS, surrendering three solo home runs over his 5 2/3 innings of work.

Overall, the 35-year-old hurler four runs on three hits and three walks over his 5 2/3 innings of work. He served up a solo homer to Trea Turner in the opening inning, then a pair to Kyle Schwarber in the third and sixth innings. Kelly then exited with a man on first and two outs in the sixth, and Joe Mantiply allowed the inherited runner to come around as well. Kelly got 10 swings and misses on 89 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 25 percent.

Kelly expects the familiar setting to make things a bit easier for him this second go around. He hadn’t pitched in this stadium since 2019 and of course never in a playoff atmosphere. Things should be more familiar for him in this game.

“I think just the overall experience. First playoff game there, first experience in that stadium. So I think walking in, even just the visual from the mound, just little stuff like that … the fact that I know the dimensions, know the vantage point from the pitcher’s mound, that type of thing. I think I can take just the whole in-game experience and it won’t be fresh,” he said.

“We know what’s ahead of us,” D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said. “We have to go out and play our best game in Game 6. We have a very tough pitcher [Aaron Nola] that we’re going to be facing, but once again, I’m going to put it on our group. I believe in Merrill Kelly. I believe in the guys to go out there and execute and play at a higher level and make plays and do things right.”

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Why Bet on Philadelphia?

In any best-of-seven postseason series that was tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 has gone on to win the series 46 out of 65 times (70.7%), including 15-of-19 times in the LCS (78.9%). When the road team wins Game 5 to take a 3-2 series lead, they have won the series 22-of-28 times (78.6%), including seven-of-eight times in the LCS (87.5%).

The Phillies smacked another three homers in the Game 5 win, giving them 23 homers in 11 games this postseason, which is one shy of the 11-game mark set by the Astros in 2004. Only the 2009 Phillies (25 homers in 15 postseason games) and last year’s club (24 homers in 17 games) hit more in a single postseason in franchise history. Of the 23 homers, 19 have been solo shots. The Phillies did end a stretch of 16 consecutive solo homers with J.T. Realmuto’s two-run shot off Luis Frías in the 8th inning.

The Phillies have scored 30 of their 58 total runs this postseason via the homer (51.7%). Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have combined for 22 homers in the last two postseasons (11 each), the most combined homers by a duo over a two-year span in the playoffs in MLB history. Harper’s teams have now won 11 straight postseason games in which he’s homered, the longest such streak of all-time. Schwarber’s 20 career homers are fourth most all-time. He needed just 63 games to reach 20 homers, the fewest among any of the five players who have hit at least 20. The previous fastest to reach the 20-homer milestone was Houston’s Jose Altuve, who got there in 68 games.

It’s right-hander Aaron Nola on the hill. Nola’s 2023 regular season was far from perfect. A three-time top-10 NL Cy Young Award finisher, the right-hander had an ERA between 4.25 and 4.70 from April 28 on, although he was dependable enough to pitch 193 2/3 innings for the Phillies. Nola has taken things to another level so far this postseason, pitching at Citizens Bank Park in all three of his starts and going at least 5 2/3 innings in each.

He was terrific in Game 2 last Tuesday, piling up seven strikeouts over six shutout innings. The 30-year-old allowed just three hits and didn’t walk a batter. Only once did the Diamondbacks have multiple runners on base against him — after Gabriel Moreno singled with two outs in the fourth inning — but he got Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to ground into a fielder’s choice to end the threat. Nola generated 11 swings and misses on 82 pitches on the night — five of those on his changeup — while posting a strong CSW of 34 percent. Nola is 3-0 with a minuscule 0.96 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and a 19/2 K/BB ratio across 18 2/3 innings in these playoffs.

“I feel like lately it’s been a little more consistency delivery-wise, like I’ve said, these last couple of outings and especially in the postseason,” said Nola. “I mean, everything matters so much right now, right? The only thing I can control is the controlables, which is the delivery and mostly where the ball goes. But once it leaves my hands, the results are out of my control.”

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