It’s a matchup of 2024 American League division winners on Friday when the Houston Astros visit the Cleveland Guardians.
While West champion Houston is locked into the AL’s No. 3 seed, Central winner Cleveland could still get the No. 1. The Astros are short favorites on the MLB odds.
| Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Astros -115, Guardians -107 (Total 7.5) Expert Prediction: Guardians 4, Astros 3 |
Why Bet on Houston?
The Astros clinched the AL West and the third seed in the Junior Circuit playoffs earlier this week so in reality, they have nothing to play for this weekend and could rest guys. Joe Espada is now the third manager in club history to win a division title in their first season as manager of the club, joining Hal Lanier (1986) and Larry Dierker (1997). He is also the sixth manager to secure a postseason berth in their first season managing the club.
The Astros are the first club to win the AL West in four straight years since Oakland won five straight AL West titles from 1971-75. When including just full seasons (excluding 2020), the Astros have won seven straight AL West titles.
Yordan Alvarez
All-Star slugger Alvarez will not play at all in Cleveland due to a sprained knee suffered last Sunday sliding into second base against the Angels. He hasn’t played since. Alvarez is having another standout season at the plate, having hit .308 with 35 homers, 34 doubles and a .959 OPS through 147 games. He has 53 multi-hit games, which are the most by an Astros player since Michael Brantley had 56 in 2019.
Chas McCormick
Outfielder McCormick (hand) did not accompany the Astros on their road trip to Cleveland. McCormick has been ramping up his activities and will continue to work out back in Houston, but he will not return from the 10-day injured list before the end of the regular season. The 29-year-old should still have a good shot to be ready in time for the wild-card round. McCormick has put up a disappointing .577 OPS over 267 plate appearances in 2024, but he had gone 10-for-24 at the plate over his last eight games before fracturing his right hand in mid-September.
Kyle Tucker
All-Star outfielder Tucker is batting .340 with two doubles, four homers, eight RBI and a 1.050 OPS in 16 games (14 starts) since being activated from the IL on Sept. 6. Tucker missed 79 games while on the IL after fouling a ball off his right shin on June 3.
2024 AL ERA Leaders
— Baseball Reference (@baseball_ref) September 26, 2024
Tarik Skubal (2.39)
Ronel Blanco (2.88)
Framber Valdez (2.91)
Bryce Miller (2.94)
All Leaders: https://t.co/moXSTTYNyO pic.twitter.com/ZvRQyW5QMz
Ronel Blanco
It’s the righty on the mound Friday. Blanco (12-6) earned the win over the Angels last Saturday, allowing two runs on seven hits and two walks while striking out nine batters over six innings. Blanco gave up a second-inning run that tied the score 1-1, but Houston put up six more runs by the end of the third to give the right-hander plenty of padding. He yielded just one more tally — on a Logan O’Hoppe solo homer — and notched his second straight quality start (and second consecutive victory).
Blanco tied his season-high with nine strikeouts. He’s allowed two or less runs in seven of his last eight starts. Blanco has emerged as a key part of the Astros’ rotation with a 2.88 ERA (fifth among qualified pitchers), 1.10 WHIP and 163 strikeouts in 162 1/3 innings on the year. He could move to the bullpen once the postseason begins. Blanco hasn’t faced Cleveland in 2024.
^Why Bet on Cleveland?
Cleveland will celebrate its 12th AL Central Division title with a flag-raising ceremony preceding Friday’s game vs. Houston. Cleveland will be no worse than the AL’s No. 2 seed and could catch the Yankees for the No. 1 but it’s not that likely. The Guardians probably would have to sweep this weekend at a minimum.
They enter off a two-game home sweep of Cincinnati to start this week. In Wednesday’s 5-2 win, All-Star outfielder and leadoff hitter Steven Kwan returned from the injured list with a bang, homering in his first at-bat since Sept. 12. Kwan now has a five-game hitting streak and 14 homers exceed his combined total from the previous two seasons by three. On the year, he is hitting .292 with 44 RBI, 83 runs scored and 12 steals across 536 plate appearances.
Jose Ramirez
Ramirez went 3-for-4 with a three-run home run, a double, a triple and an additional run scored Wednesday, falling a single shy of the cycle. The All-Star broke a 2-2 tie in the eighth inning with a three-run blast off Emilio Pagan. Over his past 10 games, Ramirez has homered three times while tallying six multi-hit efforts. He trails his single-season career-high homer total of 39 by one while hitting .279 with 115 RBI and career highs in runs (113) and steals (40) across 674 plate appearances. He’s two dingers shy of a 40-homer, 40 steal season. No Guardians player has ever had a 40/40 year and only seven MLB players overall have.
“One of my favorite parts of having this job is getting to watch [Ramírez] every single night,” Manager Stephen Vogt said. “We’re spoiled.”
Emmanuel Clase
All-Star closer Clase, who likely finishes second in the AL Cy Young voting behind Detroit starter Tarik Skubal, tossed a scoreless ninth inning and picked up his 47th save of the year and lowered his ERA to an absurd 0.61 in the process.
Clase has recorded 34-straight save conversions since May 20, the 2nd-longest saves streak in club history (38 by Jose Mesa) and the longest by any MLB reliever in a single season since BAL’s Zack Britton converted 47-straight saves in 2016. The Guardians are an MLB-best 82-0 when leading after the eighth inning.
Joey Cantillo
It’s the rookie lefty (2-3, 4.63 ERA) on the mound Friday – he originally was scheduled for Wednesday but pushed back. Cantillo surrendered two runs — one earned — in 4 1/3 innings last Thursday in a no-decision against the Twins. Both runs came in the fifth on a double, a walk and another double. The second double included a bobble that allowed a run to score, and since Nick Sandlin struck out two after replacing Cantillo, that run remained unearned. Cantillo wound up with six strikeouts, giving him 22 in three turns since he slid into the Cleveland rotation.
This will be Cantillo’s first career look at Houston. He is 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA in 15 home innings this year.
^Joey Cantillo since August 26th:
— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) September 20, 2024
18 IP
1.00 ERA
0.67 WHIP
23 Kpic.twitter.com/gxz2a2cpd0
Astros at Guardians Info
When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field
Pitchers (away/home): Ronel Blanco/Joey Cantillo
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
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Guardians vs Astros, May 1, 2024
Houston Astros right-hander and three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander got a late start to the season but the future Hall of Famer has looked in his prime at age 41 as he takes the mound Wednesday as a home favorite on the MLB odds against the Cleveland Guardians.
Houston needs points to climb out of the bottom of the AL West Division standings, can it take a 2-0 lead in Game 2 of the series?
| MLB Lines Astros -178, Guardians +127 (total 4.5) What´s the Score? Astros 4, Guardians 3 |
Cleveland Guardians MoneyLine +127
After entering the 2024 season projected to miss the playoffs, the Guardians have been MLB’s biggest surprise thus far as they are near the top of the AL standings. Offensively, Josh Naylor has really raised his game. Naylor was already a strong player in 2023, his second season as a full-time starter. He finished 22nd in AL MVP voting, and had career highs in just about every offensive stat. But thus far in the admittedly small sample size of 2024, he’s taken his game to a new level. He has an .895 OPS thus far, one of numerous metrics in which he’s currently setting a new career best.
Among MLB’s 280 qualified hitters entering, Naylor is one of only seven to rank in the 90th percentile or better in both strikeout rate and expected slugging percentage. In four of his prior five seasons, his chase rate (i.e., percentage of out-of-zone pitches swung at) was at least 31%. This season, though, that’s taken a sharp turn, as Naylor has gotten his chase rate all the way down to 27.7%.
It’s righty Triston McKenzie on the hill Wednesday. McKenzie (2-2) McKenzie did not factor into the decision last Thursday against Boston, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks over four innings. He struck out seven. McKenzie had to deal with plenty of traffic, though he was ultimately able to mitigate the damage thanks to a season-high seven strikeouts. He’d fail to qualify for a win, however, only making it through four innings after throwing 75 pitches, as Cleveland continues to monitor the 26-year-old’s workload after he made just four starts in an injury-plagued 2023 campaign. Overall, McKenzie has a 4.91 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and 18:17 K:BB through four starts (22 innings) this season.
McKenzie’s fastball velocity is down considerably from when he was fully healthy two years ago. His slider remains effective and the spin rates on his curve remain similar, but the fastball is McKenzie’s primary pitch and it’s getting hammered. He isn’t getting batters to chase like he once did. His walk rate has spiked. The Guardians have been cautious not to place too much on his plate. He was the last starter to pitch in a spring training game and a regular season game.
Nearly half the time this season, McKenzie has started an at-bat in a hitter’s count of 1-0. In his last full season in 2022, that number was at 37.5%. Obviously, this is a small sample size, but it’s a starting point for what’s gone wrong for McKenzie this season. With his velocity down two ticks and the frequency of him falling behind in counts, McKenzie has seen a drop-off in strikeouts.
This game will be a great test entering May to see what McKenzie can provide the Guardians against good lineups. He is 2-2 with a 4.13 ERA in four career starts vs. the Astros.
Houston Astros MoneyLine -178
The Astros lost 18 of their first 25 games, tied for the second-worst mark in their franchise’s history. Only two teams — the 1981 Kansas City Royals, in a strike season, and the 1914 Boston Braves — have overcome such a start to make the playoffs. However, Houston may have started to turn things around after sweeping Colorado two games over the weekend in Mexico City. The Astros carry the unwavering confidence of a club that has appeared in each of the past seven AL Championship Series.
Ahead of Tuesday’s series opener, the Astros called up prospect Joey Lopefido from Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido was slashing .287/.393/.713 in 101 at-bats for Sugar Land this year with 37 strikeouts and 16 walks. He went 2-for-3 with a homer and two walks on Sunday as the starting center fielder. He’s started 15 games in center, three in left and seven at first base.
The arrival of Loperfido, a left-handed bat, could have a major effect on Houston’s roster. The Astros are the only team in MLB without a home run by a first baseman with veteran José Abreu having a woeful April (.099/.156/.113) and Jon Singleton not providing any power. Loperfido’s presence at first base would make the Astros much more athletic defensively.
To make room for him on the roster, outfielder Trey Cabbage was sent down. Cabbage served as the Astros’ 27th man for the club’s two-game series in Mexico City versus the Rockies over the weekend, going 1-for-2 with a double and an RBI while starting in left field in Saturday’s 12-4 win before heading to the bench for Sunday’s 8-2 win.
It’s future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on the hill for the disappointing Astros. Verlander (1-0) didn’t factor into the decision last Thursday, allowing three hits and four walks with seven strikeouts over 4.1 scoreless innings against the Cubs. Verlander couldn’t complete five innings, getting pulled after 95 pitches. His inefficiency and lack of control led to four walks, but he kept each baserunner from reaching home plate. Through two starts Verlander owns a 1.74 ERA with 11 strikeouts across 10.1 innings.
Verlander is 23-24 with a 4.45 ERA in 55 career starts vs. Cleveland. Houston’s pitching won’t be getting a break against the Guardians, who are batting .305 with runners in scoring position, third-best in MLB. They’re averaging 5.1 runs scored per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Astros have uncharacteristically struggled to hit with runners in scoring position this season as they are now batting .262 with runners in scoring position, which ranks 15th.
Guardians at Astros Info
When: Wednesday, 8:10 PM ET
Where: Minute Maid Park
Pitchers (away/home): Triston McKenzie/Justin Verlander
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Injuries to Consider
Cleveland Guardians
| Date | Player | Position | Status |
| Apr 25 | Nic Enright | RP | Day-To-Day |
| Apr 24 | Gavin Williams | SP | 15-Day-IL |
| Apr 19 | Sam Hentges | RP | 15-Day-IL |
Houston Astros
| Date | Player | Position | Status |
| May 1 | Cristian Javier | SP | 15-Day-IL |
| Apr 30 | Grae Kessinger | 3B | 10-Day-IL |
| Apr 30 | Chas McCormick | LF | Day-To-Day |
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