ALDS Game 2: Tigers vs Guardians

American League Cy Young Award lock Tarik Skubal makes his second career playoff start on Monday in Game 2 of the ALDS at Cleveland, which starts former Tiger Matthew Boyd — he and Skubal are friends.

Detroit is a short favorite on the MLB odds.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Tigers -128, Guardians +110 (total 6)
Expert Prediction: Tigers 4, Guardians 2

Why Bet on Detroit?

After surprisingly pulling off a Wild-Card Series sweep in Houston, the Tigers were flat in Game 1 of the ALDS, a 7-0 loss in Cleveland on Saturday. Reese Olsen surrendered one run over five innings in relief of opener Tyler Holton in Game 1 against the Guardians. Unfortunately, that one run came on a three-run homer from Lane Thomas that put the Guardians up 5-0 in the first. Holton faced just four hitters without recording an out before he was pulled from the game. Just 10 other pitchers in AL/NL history have failed to record an out in a postseason start, though one of those was Wade Miley, who was planned to have that short of an outing, in the 2018 NLCS.

Final: Tigers 0, Guardians 7
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) October 5, 2024

“Not everything is perfectly as planned as you want it to be,” Manager AJ Hinch said. “Somebody is going to punch you in the mouth at some point, and you gotta react.”

Trey Sweeney

Sweeney went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts in the loss. Sweeney has opened the postseason 1-for-10 after finishing the regular season 1-for-17 in his final five games. The Tigers don’t have anyone else they want to use at shortstop, but they could try for more offense by putting Zach McKinstry there and using Matt Vierling at third and rookie Wenceel Pérez in the outfield for Game 2. McKinstry’s just as cold as Sweeney, though.

The Postseason Stats

The Tigers are now 9-15-1 all-time in the first game of a postseason series. They had won five of their past seven series openers before Game 1o f this series. Detroit is 59-63-1 all-time in the postseason, including a 29-35-1 record on the road. In the Division Series, the Tigers have an all-time record of 12-11, including a 6-8 mark on the road. The Tigers went 43-38 on the road during the regular season. Detroit’s 43 road victories were their most in a season since winning 45 in 2014 away from Comerica Park.

Tarik Skubal

It’s ace lefty on the mound Monday. Skubal (18-4, 2.34 ERA) blanked the Astros for six innings last Tuesday as the Tigers won Game 1 of their Wild Card series 3-1. Skubal got two visits from the trainer in this one. The first was because he took a liner off his glove hand, something that also happened a couple of weeks ago. The second came in the sixth, but he was able to continue with what turned out to be a cramp. The 2024 AL Cy Young lock exited after that inning, having thrown 88 pitches. He struck out six and walked one in earning the win in his first career postseason outing.

Skubal’s lone start against the Guardians in the regular season was an exercise in damage control at Progressive Field, as he scattered 10 hits over seven innings with just one run allowed thanks to six strikeouts. Skubal has allowed two runs over 13 innings with 13 strikeouts in two starts against Cleveland since returning from flexor tendon surgery at midseason last year.

The southpaw has been very good against current Guardians hitters, who have only hit him for a .278 wOBA in 63 plate appearances. Only Jose Ramirez has had much success against Skubal when he has faced the Guardians, going 9-for-21 with three doubles and a triple against him. Skubal has already thrown 198 innings this year, 50 more than his previous career-high. He only threw 197 innings in 2022 and 2023 combined, as both seasons were impacted by his flexor tendon surgery.

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Why Bet on Cleveland?

Cleveland scored five runs in the first inning of Game 1 before even recording an out. After two scrappy runs, Cleveland’s Trade Deadline acquisition Lane Thomas sent a monster three-run shot into the bleachers to make the Guardians the first AL team to score five runs before recording an out in a playoff game. The only other team to do it was the D-backs last year against the Dodgers during an 11-2 win in Game 1 of the NLDS, which Arizona went on to sweep in three games.

The only other game in which Cleveland has scored five runs in the first inning of a postseason game was one that it lost: Game 1 of the 1997 ALDS against the Yankees in New York. The club went on to win the series, however, 3-2.

David Fry

Fry went 2-for-3 with a two-run double and a walk in the win. The Guardians went the entire final month of the season without facing a lefty, and Fry’s start today was his first since Sept. 18. He got the nod even though the lefty was only an opener, he remained in after singling off Tyler Holton in the first and later had a two-run double off Ty Madden, producing Cleveland’s only runs after the first inning. Fry will almost surely get another start over Manzardo on Monday against Tarik Skubal.

Cleveland had a platoon advantage in an MLB-best 71.6% of its plate appearances in the regular season, per Baseball-Reference — yet, six of their seven runs on Saturday were manufactured in at-bats where Detroit had the advantage.

“We don’t just blindly play the numbers,” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said. “We use our judgment in-game.”

The Record

Cleveland’s 76-32 (.704) record when hitting one-or-more homers this year led the American League and ranked 2nd in MLB, behind the LA Dodgers (82-31, .726). The Guards also owned a 44-11 (.800) record when hitting multiple home runs, 3rd in the AL and 5th in MLB.

Matthew Boyd

It’s former Tigers’ lefty on the mound Monday. He pitched for Detroit from 2015-2021 and again in 2023. Boyd joined the Guardians for the 2024 campaign and began the season in the IL with an elbow injury before making his Cleveland debut Aug. 13. In the majors, Boyd registered a 2.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 46:13 K:BB over 39.2 innings across eight starts. The Guardians went 6-2 in Boyd’s 8 starts, with his 2.72 ERA, the 4th-lowest ERA by a southpaw in their first 8 starts with Cleveland.

“I think it’s probably unreasonable to expect someone coming off Tommy John to have to pitch as well as he’s pitched in a short time,” team president Chris Antonetti said. “And beyond that, he’s an incredible teammate. … He’s willing to share those experiences for players that are going through things that he’s had to navigate. For all of those reasons, he’s had a massive impact both on the field when he’s pitched and also on the development of other players.”

Boyd has appeared in 2 games vs. the Tigers in his career, both as a reliever for Seattle in 2022. He pitched 4.0 hitless and scoreless frames with 5 strikeouts across the 2 outings. This will mark Boyd’s second career playoff appearance (1st start), and first since taking a no-decision in a relief outing for Seattle in Game 3 of the 2022 ALDS vs. Houston.

Just another chapter in this bullpen's story. 🔒#ForTheLand | #GuardsBall pic.twitter.com/SmCxcrjDId
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) October 5, 2024

Tigers at Guardians Info

When: Monday, 4:08 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field
Pitchers (away/home): Tarik Skubal/Matthew Boyd
TV: TBS, truTV
Stream/game day audio: Max