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Two teams with wild-card hopes in their respective leagues conclude their series on Thursday night as the Tampa Bay Rays visit the St. Louis Cardinals, who are short favorites on the MLB odds behind Kyle Gibson.

Tampa Bay at St. Louis: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

Opening MLB Lines: Cardinals -130, Rays +110 (total 7.5)
Score Prediction: Rays 4, Cardinals 3

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline +107

This is the rubber match of this series and that perhaps bodes well for the Rays as they have won 11 straight rubber games. That’s the longest streak in the majors since Oakland won 12 in a row in 1989. Nine of Tampa Bay’s last 11 three-game series have been decided in a rubber match.

The Rays have made the playoffs in five straight seasons, but that probably ends in 2024. They are still technically in the AL wild-card race but also traded away several regulars ahead of last month’s trade deadline in an effort to load up the farm system on the fly and plan to return to pennant contention in 2025 when the rotation is fully healthy. The Rays have to think differently than other teams because of their small-market status and playing in the worst stadium in the majors.

Drew Rasmussen

One key part of that rotation is Rasmussen, who was activated off the injured list on Wednesday but will serve out of the bullpen the rest of this year, with a maximum outing of two innings per game. He hadn’t pitched this year due to a long rehab from an internal brace procedure on his right elbow in the off season.

Richie Palacios

Tampa Bay still has several other guys on the IL, including outfielder Palacios, who will miss about 4–6 weeks due to a right knee sprain. Prior to his injury, Palacios was slashing .233/.350/.332 with 19 stolen bases, five home runs and 21 RBI across 300 plate appearances this season.

Shane Baz on th Mound

Good young righty Shane Baz (0-1) takes the hill Thursday. Baz allowed two runs, six hits and one walk while striking out five over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Astros last Friday. Baz ran into trouble in the fourth inning, but otherwise worked in and out of trouble in another solid showing. He got 15 missed swings on 80 pitches tonight, including seven of his 29 sliders.

Baz is still looking for his first win of the season, but he’s yet to allow more than three runs in any of his five starts. The 25-year-old has five or more strikeouts in four starts this season. Baz made his season debut on July 5 off major surgery, his first MLB action in almost exactly two years, and has posted a 3.60 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 25 innings. If he can stay healthy, the 25-year-old could be a vital cog in the Rays bouncing back in 2025.

Going into 2022, Baz was considered the eighth-best prospect in the entire league by Baseball America, with other outlets similarly optimistic. The Rays were surely hoping for him to establish himself at the big league level that year, but his health got in the way, and he ended up needing Tommy John surgery. Baz has never faced St. Louis.

Rays’ Pitching

Tampa Bay pitching has posted an MLB-best 2.66 ERA since the All-Star break. Both the rotation (2.83) and bullpen (2.47) have turned in the majors’ third-best ERAs in that span. Since June 1, the Rays are an MLB-best 21-2 (.913) in games scoring at least four ties. They have won 16 straight games when scoring at least four.

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St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline -127

St. Louis ends its season by playing the 3rd-hardest strength of schedule (.523) in baseball, with 24 of the team’s next 27 against teams with winning records. Star third baseman Nolan Arenado ranks among the all-time Interleague leaders in RBIs (187, 5th), doubles (67, 5th), and extra-base hits (124, T-6th). Arenado’s next RBI will tie Torii Hunter (1999-2015) for 4th all-time in MLB history.

Masyn Winn

With his next home run, shortstop Winn would become the 8th Cardinals rookie with double-digit homer and stolen base totals in a single season and first since Tommy Edman in 2019 (11 HR & 15 SB) and Harrison Bader in 2018 (12 HR & 15 SB).

Michael Siriani

The Cardinals are without starting center fielder Siriani due to an oblique injury that landed him on the IL recently, and those can linger for weeks. Siani received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right oblique Monday and has been able to do some light running and lifting since the injury, though he remains without an official return timeline.

Victor Scott

Touted prospect Scott was called up to take his spot and should get the bulk of work in center field while Siani is out. Over his final seven games at Triple-A Memphis before the promotion, Scott was batting .370 (10-for-27) with three homers, two steals, nine runs and 10 RBI. He then hit his first career big-league homer in Tuesday’s series-opening 4-3 win over Tampa Bay.

Ryan Helsley

All-Star closer Helsley got his MLB-leading 35th save of the season Tuesday, although he came dangerously close to blowing his fourth save chance of the year, putting the first two batters he faced aboard before Jonny DeLuca poked a two-out single to left field, but Helsley was able to get Taylor Walls to ground out to end the game. Helsley has been tagged for four runs in his last three appearances, but on the season, he still sports a 2.77 ERA.

The Cardinals sport the lowest ERA (2.31) in the 8th inning, but the highest ERA in the 5th inning (6.45) among MLB teams this season. Dating back to information since 1974, only the 1978 Cardinals have a better 8th-inning ERA (1.86) in single-season history, while the Cards 5th inning ERA this season is currently their highest since 1974.

Kyle Gibson on the Hill

It’s righty Gibson (7-4) starting on Thursday. Gibson did not factor into the decision in Saturday’s 5-4 win against the Cubs, allowing four runs on five hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over seven innings. Gibson allowed four runs over his first two innings but rebounded with five scoreless frames. He was efficient, throwing 65 of 96 pitches for strikes and retiring the final seven batters he faced, but he has now yielded three earned runs or more in seven of his past 10 starts and has not won a game since July 7. On the year, he owns a 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP across 120.1 innings.

Gibson has spent a lot of time in the AL in his career and thus has made 15 appearances vs. Tampa Bay all-time and is 6-6 with a 4.26 ERA. He faced them twice in 2023 with mixed results while with Baltimore.

Betting Rays at Cardinals MLB Odds

When: Thursday, 7:15 PM ET
Where: Busch Stadium
Pitchers (away/home): Shane Baz/Kyle Gibson
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/ ^