Mets vs Braves: Wild-Card Race Heats Up! Expert Picks and Analysis

A massive series in the National League wild-card race starts Tuesday night from Atlanta as the Mets visit the Braves.

New York would be in the playoffs as things stand and Atlanta would miss out, but the Braves are favored Tuesday on the MLB odds.

Why Bet on New York?

The Mets were a season-low 11 games under .500 on June 2 (24-35). Since then, they have gone 63-34. If New York wins two of three in this series, it is guaranteed a wild-card spot.

Mark Vientos

The Rookie has joined Darryl Strawberry (1983-1986), David Wright (2005-2007), Michael Conforto (2017), Pete Alonso (2019) and Francisco Alvarez (2023) as the only players in franchise history age 24 or younger to have 25 or more home runs in a season. Vientos is one of four Mets with at least 20 homers and 20 doubles this year. That ties a franchise record for most players with a 20/20 season on the same team, done twice before.

Francisco Lindor

Will the Mets have All-Star shortstop for Tuesday or the series at all? Since injuring his back during a Sept. 13 game in Philadelphia, Lindor has played a total of one inning. He returned two days after suffering the injury but aggravated it that night and shut things down. He hasn’t appeared in a game since, and he said Sunday that his pain was initially severe enough that he “couldn’t really walk” and was “rolling out of bed.” Last Thursday, Lindor received a facet joint injection into his spine, which was designed to relieve his symptoms.

The NL MVP candidate added that he needs to check all the boxes before playing again, and noted that he’s OK with playing through some back pain. But he doesn’t want to force a return and not be able to perform at the level he expects from himself. Francisco is batting .271 with 31 home runs, 27 steals and an .836 OPS to go with elite defense at shortstop. He could finish as high as second in the NL MVP voting, behind the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani.

"If I play this year, I don't think it's gonna be pain-free. I'm okay with that."

Francisco Lindor was asked about the possibility of playing Tuesday and the rest of this season: pic.twitter.com/AN01gr7Y5B

— SNY (@SNYtv) September 23, 2024

Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo went 1-for-4 with a huge home run in Sunday’s win over the Phillies. Nimmo led off the sixth with a solo home run against Zack Wheeler to put the Mets up 2-1, which ended up being the final score of the game. The home run brought Nimmo up to 22 for the year and was his third long ball in five games. Nimmo has at least a hit in eight of his last nine games and has driven in 12 RBI over that span. His 87 RBI this season has easily surpassed his previous season-best of 68 and he needs two homers over to try and match his career-high of 24.

“I feel like we’ve been playing playoff games for the last week or so, and we shouldn’t treat it any differently than that,” Nimmo said of going to Atlanta. “You go into there, it’s going to be high-energy, it’s going to be a playoff atmosphere, and it’s going to be great.”

Edwin Diaz

It’s not clear if the closer will be available on Tuesday after the Mets extended in a big way over the weekend. He recorded four outs on Saturday and another six on Sunday. Although Díaz intends to be ready to pitch in the series opener in Atlanta, the Mets could back off him for at least a day to avoid burning him out. But everyone else in their bullpen should be a full go.

Luis Severino

It’s righty on the mound Tuesday. Severino (11-6, 3.79 ERA) picked up the win over the Phillies last Thursday, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks over six innings while striking out seven. Severino got off to a hot start, striking out five of the first eight batters he faced in the contest before allowing two runs in the third inning and another in the fourth.

“He had to battle,” Manager Carlos Mendoza said. “Stuff-wise, he was good, but they made him work. … He found a way to give us six innings.”

The right-hander generated 13 whiffs in the contest en route to posting at least seven strikeouts for the fifth time in his last eight outings. It marked Severino’s fourth consecutive quality start, while he’s also secured wins in each of his last four decisions (spanning seven starts).

Severino is 0-0 with a 3.60 ERA in two starts this year vs. Atlanta.

Why Bet on Atlanta?

Despite winning four of their last five games, Atlanta (85-71) enters the series staring at a two-game deficit in the NL Wild Card standings. Anything less than a sweep of the Mets will prevent them from controlling their own destiny heading into the final weekend. If the Braves win all three, they’ll exit the series with a one-game lead over the Mets and full control of their own destiny.

Ozzie Albies

In Sunday’s 5-4 win in Miami, Albies went 1-for-5 with a solo homer, his first long ball in three games since coming off the IL last Friday, and first since July 6. The 27-year-old switch-hitter still isn’t able to bat left-handed due to soreness in his wrist.

Raisel Iglesias

Iglesias gave up two hits and struck out two in two scoreless innings Sunday to record his 32nd save of the season. It was Iglesias’ third two-inning appearance among nine trips to the mound in September. The additional workload may have contributed to a five-run meltdown against the Dodgers on Sept. 15, but the right-hander hasn’t been tagged with an earned run the rest of the month and he has a 14:5 K:BB through 11.2 innings while going a perfect 5-for-5 on save chances.

Matt Olson

Olson is the only player in baseball to have 30 homers and 100 RBIs in every year from 2021-23. Over the last 10 seasons dating to 2015, just two players have collected four consecutive 30 homer, 100 RBI seasons. Nolan Arenado did so in five straight years from 2015-19, and Edwin Encarnacion had four consecutive from 2015-2018.

With one more homer and two more RBIs, Olson will become just the third Brave since the team moved to Atlanta in 1966 with three straight seasons of 30 homers and 100 RBI. Chipper Jones (1998-2001) and Dale Murphy (1982-1985) both did so in four straight years. Olson’s first 30/100 season in his current stretch came while with Oakland.

Spencer Schwellenbach

It’s the rookie on the mound Tuesday. Schwellenbach (7-7, 3.61 ERA) picked up the win last Wednesday against Cincinnati, allowing one run on five hits and two walks across six innings. He struck out five. Schwellenbach nabbed his second straight quality start and pushed his streak of starts allowing three earned runs or fewer to 10. During that stretch, the 24-year-old has a 2.75 ERA and 69:12 K:BB across 59 innings. He’s allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his last 14 starts and has a 3.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 118 strikeouts in 109 2/3 innings on the year.

Spencer did Schwell.#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/nJfvWfTkgv

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) September 19, 2024

“He’s been as valuable as anybody,” Atlanta manager Brian Snitker said after the rookie’s last outing. “I’m glad he got out of the sixth (first and third with two outs). When you get in a close game like that, you never know what’s going to happen. The guys could rally like we did and get him a win. I thought he was really, really good again.”

Schwellenbach did not pitch in his first season in the Atlanta system in 2022 and only threw 65 innings in the minors in 2023. He pitched 45 innings in the minors this season before a promotion to Atlanta, where he’s thrown 109 innings in 19 starts.

“These are the games I want to pitch in,” Schwellenbach said. “I have over 150 innings. I feel like I’ve hit a new wave, I guess.” He threw seven shutout innings in his lone start vs. the Mets on July 27 in a victory.

Mets vs Braves Info

When: Tuesday, 7:20 PM ET
Where: Truist Park
Pitchers (away/home): Luis Severino/Spencer Schwellenbach
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/

Mets vs Braves Season Series

Since June 3, New York is 62-34 — the best record in MLB — and Atlanta is barely a .500 team. The Mets know that with a series win, they can wrap up the wild card. The season series is tied 5-5. The Braves will end the regular season playing against a Kansas City Royals team that will probably still be fighting for a wild-card spot. The Mets will play a Milwaukee Brewers team that has already locked up its division and will be mostly resting for October.

MLB Betting Center

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Updated MLB Odds | Sportsbook Online

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