2024 MLB National League East Predictions

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This season, the National League East projects as one of Major League Baseball’s most competitive divisions. The Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, and Philadelphia Phillies will battle it out for the top spot. Which among those three division contenders is the top pick? Also, which team warrants consideration as the NL East’s best upset play to take the division title?

Check out MLB lines and analysis to win the National League East Division in the 2023 baseball season.

2023 MLB National League East Predictions: Top Winner & Top Upset Plays

MLB Season Info | Updated MLB Odds
Duration: Thursday, Mar. 30 – Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023
Number of games: 162 games
Number of teams: 30 teams

Mets’ Starting Rotation Analysis

If the Mets hadn’t signed Justin Verlander, it would be difficult to make them the top pick over favorite Atlanta and last year’s NL pennant winners, the Philadelphia Phillies.

But the New York Mets did win the Verlander sweepstakes. Sometimes pitchers that change leagues struggle to find the same form that led to past success but we shouldn’t worry about Verlander. His excellent form last season should translate no problem to the National League.

Max Scherzer is listed as the ace. Either way, the Mets boast two lockdown starters. If Kodai Senga has success in MLB, he would be the third lock down ace on the rotation.

Mets’ Batting Lineup Analysis

The Mets have power at the plate. First baseman Pete Alonso hit 40 home runs in 2022. Eduardo Escobar knocked in 20.

Francisco Lindor hit 26 dingers. Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo both hit 16. Designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach hit 18.

For sure, NYM will have to do more than hit home runs to win games. But the fact they’ve got power up and the down the lineup means the Mets should never be out of it in the later innings. 

MLB National League East Top Pick: Mets +146 | Bet New York Mets To Win NL East MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Marlins’ Starting Rotation Analysis

What can we say about 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara? The Marlins’ ace posted a 2.28 ERA and .98 WHIP while throwing for a bad team.

Alcantara also struck out 207. This season, second in the rotation Jesus Luzardo could take a nice forward step. In 2022 Luzardo posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.04 WHIP

If Jesus improves upon those numbers, the Marlins’ starting rotation could surprise big time. The real key for the starting rotation, though, is Johnny Cueto.

Cueto used to be one of the most feared pitchers in baseball. If Johnny rediscovers his best stuff, the Marlins’ rotation has the chance of being special.  

Marlins’ Batting Lineup Analysis

Luis Arraez hit .316 last season. Jean Segura batted .277. After those two, it’s difficult to find which players in the lineup can get on base with regularity.

Garrett Cooper and Joey Wendle are both okay at .260 and .259. But what’s up with Jesus Sanchez batting .214 last season? Or how about DH Jorge Soler posting a .207?

No doubt, Miami’s offense must pick it up big time if the Miami Marlins hope to compete with the ATL, NYM, or the Phils.

If the bats improve, and Luzardo and Cueto help Alcantara, the Marlins could pull off a massive NL East Division upset win.

MLB National League East Underdog Pick: Marlins +4700 | Bet Miami Marlins To Win NL East
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Predicting NL East Division Standings For The 2023 MLB Season | 2023 MLB Predictions

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The Atlanta Braves have won the NL East Division each of the past five seasons, and while they certainly will contend again with a terrific young team, the New York Mets are the slight +125 favorites on the MLB odds to win it for the first time since 2015 despite signing All-Star Carlos Correa and then losing him.

Experts’ Predictions for the National League East Division | MLB Lines

The Mets had quite the offseason. They lost two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom in free agency to the Texas Rangers but replaced him with three-time AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, who heads to the NL for the first time in his Hall of Famer career. The deal reunites Verlander with fellow three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer, who played alongside him from 2010-14 with Detroit.

At age 39, Verlander is coming off a year in which he produced a league-best 1.75 ERA over 28 starts for the Astros, leading the Majors with a 0.83 WHIP and a 220 league-adjusted ERA+ (which suggests he was more than twice as effective as an average pitcher).

Also new in the rotation this season will be veteran lefty Jose Quintana and Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga. Senga spent 11 seasons in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball organization, all for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. Overall, the right-hander posted a 2.59 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 1,089 innings, striking out 28% of the batters he faced, but also walking 9%. In 2022, he had a 1.89 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP over 148 innings for the Hawks. Quintana, an 11-year veteran who produced a 2.93 ERA over 32 starts for the Pirates and Cardinals last season. Quintana should slot fourth in the rotation behind Scherzer, Verlander and Senga.

All-Star closer Edwin Diaz and center fielder Brandon Nimmo re-signed but one big fish who got away was Correa. The All-Star shortstop and former AL Rookie of the Year originally signed with the Giants but they had concerns about his physical. The Mets quickly pounced … only to have questions about his physical as well. The Mets were reportedly also concerned with Correa’s right ankle, which was surgically repaired while he played in the Minor Leagues in 2014. So Correa ended up back in Minnesota.

The Braves went 101-61 last year after winning the World Series in 2021, becoming the 18th team in history to win triple digits in their title defense, and the fourth in the last 40 years. However, they lost to the Phillies in the NLDS. The Braves’ five straight playoff appearances mark the club’s longest streak since their 14-year run from 1991-2005. Their streak of five straight division titles is the longest in the majors.

Atlanta (+135) did lose All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson in free agency. The former No. 1 overall pick shortstop batted second much of last season, when he drilled 25 homers and won a Gold Glove. The Braves let the $177 million man end up with the Cubs. Kenley Jansen and Adam Duvall left for Boston and William Contreras was traded to Milwaukee. The Braves did trade for A’s All-Star catcher Sean Murphy.

Atlanta also returns one of the best starting-pitcher quartets in the majors with Cy Young runner-up Max Fried, phenom fireballer Spencer Strider, 21-game winner Kyle Wright and 39-year-old Charlie Morton. If they can get good work from their No. 5, it should make this one of MLB’s super rotations. Mike Soroka and Ian Anderson likely will battle for that job.

The Phillies (+325), who lost in the 2022 World Series to Houston, won’t have two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper in the lineup until perhaps midseason following Tommy John surgery – pretty unlikely for a non-pitcher to have that. The elbow injury, which Harper initially suffered back in April, limited his throwing ability and forced him to play exclusively at designated hitter for the majority of the 2022 MLB season. Harper played a pivotal role in the Phillies’ run to the World Series. He went 18-for-43 with five home runs over the first three rounds of the 2022 MLB playoffs.

That lineup will be dynamite when Harper is healthy after the free-agent signing of All-Star shortstop Trea Young from the Dodgers. Since he became a full-time starter with the Nationals in 2018, he has 24.9 Wins Above Replacement. It is the seventh-best mark in the Major Leagues over that span, behind only Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, José Ramírez, Francisco Lindor and Alex Bregman. He is the only player in the Majors with more than 90 home runs and 140 stolen bases from 2018-22.

The Miami Marlins (+2500) have some terrific young pitching but still not enough hitting to contend in the division. They did land 2022 AL batting champion Luis Arraez this winter from Minnesota for pitcher Pablo Lopez. The 25-year-old Arraez had a breakout season for Minnesota last year, making his first All-Star team while batting a league-best .316 and denying Aaron Judge a Triple Crown.

Washington (+10000) is in complete rebuild mode and the team is for sale, although that has been complicated by the recent death of owner Ted Lerner.

NL East Expert Predicted Order Of Finish

Atlanta, New York, Philadelphia, Miami, Washington

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Baseball is back as spring training is currently underway, and opening day is coming up. We have two weeks left in spring training before teams head back home for a full 162-game season. There will be many teams to watch out for this season and many divisions that will have a tight race. 

The defending World Series Champions will be playing in the division we are looking at, the Atlanta Braves from the NL East division. The Braves won the division at 88 games last season, and it is already shaping up to look like they will need more than that this season. 

With the many moves made over the offseason, this division became a lot more interesting and may be the best division in baseball this season. Let’s take a look at who could come out as a winner and who could be disappointed come September so you can plan your bets against the MLB NL Division Odds.

NL East Season Predictions: Winner and Upset

Winner: Philadelphia Phillies

It will be a good year for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022. With the recent acquisitions made by the front office, the Phillies are looking to make a run this season. They finished second in the division last season, 6.5 games back of the Braves. 

Most recently, the Phillies signed Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to their roster. With the DH coming to the NL, Schwarber will be perfect for that role. Castellanos could also serve as a DH but can play the outfield as well. 

The pitching staff will be led by Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola, two premier pitchers within the NL. Wheeler and Nola both held winning records last season, with over 180 innings pitched each.

The back half of the rotation is where the Phillies could struggle. They round out their rotation with Kyle Gibson, Ranger Suarez, and Hans Crouse. 

The projected lineup for the Phillies will include the names of Schwarber, Castellanos, Bryce Harper, Didi Gregorius, J.T. Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins. That will be very dangerous for opposing teams. 

The biggest thing for the Phillies to control is the pitching staff and staying healthy. If any of the pitching staff falls, the chances of winning the division are hurt very much. 

Upset Team: Miami Marlins

Even with the recent signing of Jorge Soler, the Miami Marlins will be a disappointing team this season. To look back and see what the Marlins had in their organization at one point and to see where they are now is sad. 

There are a few things to like about the current team, including their pitching staff and a few position players. Sandy Alcantara leads the pitching staff in Miami, along with Trevor Rogers and Pablo Lopez.

From a position player standpoint, there is a lot to like with the DH signing of Jorge Soler and adding another power bat to this lineup. Another power bat will play first base in Jesus Aguilar. The rise of Jazz Chisholm Jr. will be exciting for the Marlin fans to see. 

This team is young and has a group of guys that can play, but right now may not be their time. They may need to add a few more pitchers and a star name to this lineup to really bolster their chances. 

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