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It’s a rematch of the 2023 AL Division Series on Thursday night as the Texas Rangers open a series in Baltimore against AL Cy Young contender Corbin Burnes with the Orioles favored on the MLB odds. They were swept out of the ALDS by Texas.

Texas vs Baltimore: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis & Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook.

MLB Picks: Orioles -180, Rangers +160 (total 8.5)
Score Prediction: Orioles 5, Rangers 3

Texas Rangers Moneyline +161

Injuries to Consider

Just when it appeared the defending World Series champion Rangers were starting to turn things around, they opened this week losing a series in Milwaukee.

It hasn’t helped that two excellent rookies, outfielder Evan Carter and third baseman Josh Jung, have been hurt.

Carter was placed on the 10-day IL on May 28 with lower-back tightness.

Manager Bruce Bochy noted that the injury is worse than the Rangers initially thought and has since been reclassified as a stress reaction, so Carter may not be back until after the All-Star break.

Another rookie, Wyatt Langford, has taken over as the Rangers’ primary left fielder during Carter’s absence.

Josh Jung

There was some hope that Jung, a 2023 All-Star, might be activated this week, but the 26-year-old was shut down again temporarily after experiencing residual soreness in his surgically repaired right wrist.

Jung went 4-for-17 with five strikeouts in four rehab games with Triple-A Round Rock, but the Rangers shut him down shortly thereafter. Sounds like Jung will not be activated until next week at the earliest.

In his first four games of 2024 before the injury, Jung went 7-for-17 with two walks, one double, one triple and two homers.

Jon Gray on the Mound

It’s righty Jon Gray on the hill Thursday. Gray (3-3) picked up the win last Saturday, allowing two hits over six scoreless innings in a 6-0 victory over the Royals.

He struck out three. Both hits were third-inning singles, but Gray shut down the rally and proceeded to retire the final 10 batters he faced before exiting.

He tossed 72 pitches (51 strikes) en route to his sixth quality start of the season, but Saturday marked the first time Gray lasted at least six innings in a start since May 15.

It was a necessary bounce back start for Gray after he allowed nine earned runs in his last start against the Mets.

It was just his third win of the season and first since May 15. Since the start of April, Gray has gone 3-3, with a 2.53 ERA, including 6 quality starts.

Overall, he takes a 3.03 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 68:19 K:BB through 71.1 innings into Thursday.

Gray is 2-2, 2.91 ERA (7 ER/21.2 IP) with 6 BB/21 SO in 4 career starts against the Orioles, including a pair of quality starts in 2023, totaling a 2.03 ERA (3 ER/13.1 IP), 3 BB and 15 SO in those outings. He didn’t appear in the 2023 ALDS vs. the Orioles.

Season Series

The Rangers return to Baltimore for the first time since winning ALDS Games 1 and 2 there last October. Texas went 3-3 against Baltimore in the 2023 regular season, including 2-1 at Camden Yards from 5/26-28.

The Rangers have not won a season series vs. Baltimore since 2019 (6-1), going 0-2-1 in season series play since (clubs did not meet in 2020).

Texas is 11-14-1 in series play this season, including just 4-10-0 in the last 14 series after posting a 2-0-1 mark in the first 3 sets.

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MyBookie MLB Betting Odds to Win

Baltimore Orioles Moneyline -200

Injuries to Consider

Even the best of teams go into a mini-slump at times during a season, and the Orioles are in one currently. Baltimore can hit with anyone, but the starting pitching has become a concern with Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells and John Means all lost for the season.

Anthony Santander Record

Santander leads MLB with 12 home runs this month. He is the first O’s batter with double-digit home runs in a single calendar month since he did so in September 2022 (10).

He is the first Oriole to hit 11+ homers in a single month since Manny Machado hit 12 in August 2017. The club record for home runs in a month is 15 by Jim Gentile in August 1961.

The club record for home runs in June is 12 by Boog Powell (1964), Rafael Palmeiro (1998), Albert Belle (2000), and Chris Davis (2013). Santander’s 82 home runs since the start of 2022 are the most by a switch hitter.

Corbin Burnes on the Mound

It’s ace righty and former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes on the hill Thursday. Burnes (8-3) allowed four runs on five hits and struck out five without walking a batter over seven innings, taking the loss last Saturday versus the Astros.

Burnes had a solid outing, but a two-run home run by Yordan Alvarez and a solo shot by Chas McCormick were too much for the Orioles to overcome.

Burnes’ changeup has been one of his best pitches this year, batters hitting just .065 against it. In the third inning vs. Houston, Alvarez became just the third batter to get a hit off it and the first to homer. That was a two-run shot to center field to put the Astros up 3-1.

It was the first time all year, Burnes has given up multiple homers in a start — he’s yielded just 10 long balls through 16 starts.

Overall, Burnes has an excellent 2.35 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 94:24 K:BB through 99.2 innings. The only current MLB franchise that Burnes has never faced is Texas.

Orioles< Streak

The Orioles have been above .500 in eight consecutive full months since the start of 2023, the longest streak by the team (min. 10 games played in the month) since May 1982 through September 1983 (11).

The current stretch is the longest active streak in the majors.; Atlanta had its streak of 11 straight winning months since June 2022 snapped with a 13-14 record in May.