Red Sox vs. Mets Expert Picks, Analysis & Score Prediction

Whenever the Boston Red Sox and New York Mets face off, it will conjure up memories of one of the great World Series of all-time in 1986, of course won by the Mets thanks in large part to Bill Buckner’s infamous error in Game 6.

The franchises open an interleague set Monday night from Queens, with the Mets favored on the MLB odds.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Mets -129, Red Sox +105 (total 8)
Expert Prediction: Mets 5, Red Sox 4

Boston Red Sox +105

It’s not looking good for Boston at the moment to get the final AL wild-card spot, as the Red Sox are under .500 since the break and come off back-to-back losses in Detroit. Boston also lost infielder David Hamilton to the injured list last Thursday due to a fractured finger, and he had been playing well. Trying to lay down a bunt in the eighth inning of last Wednesday’s victory over the Blue Jays, Hamilton had a fastball ride up and in on him. He couldn’t get his bat completely above the pitch, but he got the bunt down. However, the ball also ticked off his left index finger.

The #RedSox today placed INF David Hamilton on the 10-Day Injured List with a left index finger fracture.

To fill his spot on the active roster, the club recalled INF/OF Nick Sogard from Triple-A Worcester.
— Red Sox (@RedSox) August 29, 2024

When will Hamilton return?

His .248/.303/.395 batting line this year only translates to a 91 wRC+, indicating he’s been 9% below average, but he’s stolen a team-high 33 bases in 37 tries and has played both second and short. His work at shortstop hasn’t been graded well, but he has nine Defensive Runs Saved and three Outs Above Average at second. Overall, FanGraphs considers him to have been worth 1.6 wins above replacement on the year. Hamilton is hoping to be back in 2-to-3 weeks if his pain tolerance allows.

Infielder/Outfielder

MLB rosters expanded on Sunday, and the Sox called up Enmanuel Valdez and reliever Chase Shugart. Valdez has had several stints on the MLB roster this season, including when he started at second base on Opening Day. The left-handed hitter is slashing .224/.282/.400 with six homers and 27 RBIs in 170 at-bats for the Red Sox. Shugart got his first call-up to the Major Leagues on Aug. 12, and made his debut three days later against the Orioles, allowing one run over 2 2/3 innings. He was optioned the next day.

“Valdy, the at-bat from the left side, we can start him at second. We can use him late in the games,” said Red Sox manager Alex Cora. “Obviously Shugart, he’s throwing the ball well. So he can give us quality innings out of the bullpen.”

Jarren Duran

The 2024 All-Star Game MVP, also ranks 2nd in MLB in bWAR (8.8), trailing only Aaron Judge (9.8). Only 8 players in Red Sox history have finished a season with 8.5+ bWAR (18 occurrences): Ted Williams (6x), Tris Speaker (3x), Carl Yastrzemski (3x), Mookie Betts (2x), Wade Boggs, Fred Lynn, Rico Petrocelli, and Babe Ruth. Duran is also tied for the MLB lead in outfield assists and ranks T-2nd in Defensive Runs Saved (22).

Brayan Bello

It’s righty on the mound Monday. Bello (12-6, 4.66 ERA) earned the win over Toronto last Wednesday, allowing two hits and one walk while striking out nine batters over eight scoreless innings. Bello yielded only three baserunners and didn’t allow any Blue Jay to reach third base. He had his swing-and-miss stuff working, racking up 15 whiffs and recording nine punchouts — his second-highest mark this season.

Bello gave up five runs over 5.1 innings in his previous start against Arizona, but aside from that rough outing, he’s been very good of late, picking up three quality starts of one or zero runs across his past four appearances. Dating to July 14, Bello has given up more than three runs in a start just once and has posted a 3.52 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 49:20 K:BB over 53.inning frames.

Monday will be Bello’s first career appearance vs. the Mets.

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New York Mets -129

The Mets are in better shape than the Red Sox in terms of the NL wild-card race, but still just on the outside looking in. New York, which is a season high nine games over .500, also carries a four-game winning streak into this one – it also was fortunate enough to get three games over the weekend against the putrid White Sox, but credit to the Mets for taking advantage of that scheduling break. Ahead of Sunday’s game, with rosters expanding, the Mets called up infielder Pablo Reyes and lefty reliever Alex Young.

Francisco Lindor

All-Star shortstop has hit 20 home runs when batting first this season. That is tied with Michael Conforto (2017) for the fifth-most in a single-season in Mets history. Only Curtis Granderson (26 HR, 2015), Tommie Agee (24 HR, 1970), Brandon Nimmo (23 HR, 2023) and Tommie Agee (22 HR, 1969) had more in a single-season.

20 Doubles & 20 Home Runs

Along with the Diamondbacks, the Mets are the only two teams in the majors with three players with 20 doubles and 20 home runs: Lindor, Pete Alonso and Mark Vientos. New York’s Brandon Nimmo is close to joining that club. The franchise record for most players with a 20/20 season on the same team is four, done twice before.

On Saturday, Alonso hit his 30th homer of the season to join Mike Piazza as the only two Mets players to have a 30-plus homer season in four consecutive years. Piazza did it with New York from 1999 to 2002. The only season the four-time All-Star Alonso didn’t top the 30-homer threshold was back during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when he hit 16.

The Mets have an 83% success rate in stolen bases this year, fourth in the majors and the second-highest in franchise history. Last year, the team was successful in 88.7% (118-133) of stolen base attempts, the highest in team history. Starling Marte (14/14) and Nimmo (11/11) have yet to be caught this year.

Luis Severino

It’s righty Luis Severino on the hill Monday. Severino (9-9) did not factor into the decision in a loss to Arizona last Wednesday, allowing four runs on eight hits and one walk over 4.2 innings. He struck out nine. Severino struck out four of the first seven batters he faced before allowing Arizona’s first run of the contest on an RBI single from Luis Guillorme. Severino was then victimized by the long ball in both the third and fourth innings and would later be relieved by Huascar Brazoban with two outs in the fifth, marking Severino’s shortest outing in August.

The 30-year-old has now surrendered at least four runs in four of his last six starts, coughing up multiple homers in three of those outings. Severino has a 3.96 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a 131/52 K/BB ratio across 152 1/3 innings this year. As a former Yankee, Severino has been in Boston plenty in his career and is 5-7 with a 4.06 ERA in 16 appearances vs. the Red Sox.

Red Sox vs Mets Info

When: Monday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field
Pitchers (away/home): Brayan Bello/Luis Severino
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/