MLB Expert Picks & Betting Lines: Baltimore Favored vs Tigers

No team in the American League is playing better baseball than the Detroit Tigers, who are now smack-dab in the middle of the wild-card race when a month ago they seemed to have no hope.

The Baltimore Orioles have been scuffling for weeks, but still hold an AL wild-card spot. So Friday’s series opener in Charm City could be a first-round playoff preview. The O’s are favored on the MLB odds behind ace Corbin Burnes.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Orioles -191, Tigers +154 (total 7.5)
Expert Prediction: Orioles 4, Tigers 3

Why Bet on Detroit?

grit don’t quit pic.twitter.com/HiqkE4s1l4
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) September 19, 2024

The Tigers have just three losses since Sept. 5 and finished a hugely impressive three-game sweep at AL wild-card contender Kansas City on Wednesday with a 4-2 victory to win for the ninth time in the past 11 games and 25th time in the past 35. Tarik Skubal allowed three hits over five innings for his 17th win to lock up the AL Cy Young Award.

Riley Greene

Greene stayed hot with a solo homer on Wednesday. Despite a season marked by a moderate .262 batting average and a high strikeout rate of 26.5%, Greene’s power numbers remain impressive, with 24 homers now on the year along with 71 RBIs and 77 runs scored. His OPS is up to .963 this month. Rookie third baseman Colt Keith was out Wednesday and is day-to-day after reinjuring his right shoulder in Tuesday’s game on a diving attempt in the field. Keith has had a right shoulder problem for three straight seasons. The 23-year-old, who hit a two-run homer Monday, is batting .264 with 13 long balls and 58 RBIs in 139 games this season.

AJ Hinch

“We’ve hit him in the middle of our order for the better part of the past three months, so he’s been a huge part of this,” Manager said. “It could have been much worse. I think the initial diagnosis is day to day, and that’s the best we can go with. That’s awesome. He’s been an integral part of the stability of this entire team.”

The Record

Since Aug. 11, the Tigers not only have the best record in the majors but an MLB-best 2.52 ERA while the offense is averaging 4.68 runs per game, which ranks second in the American League. Detroit also leads the Majors with a +62 run differential. Dating to June 29, reliever Tyler Holton has posted a 4-0 record with a 0.38 ERA (47.1IP/2ER), 0.68 WHIP and 37 strikeouts. Dating to 1913, Holton’s 0.38 ERA is the lowest in any 33-game span by a Tigers pitcher (min. 40.0 innings) and the lowest by an MLB pitcher since Cla Meredith had a 0.22 ERA over 33 games from July 23-September 26, 2006.

Keider Montero

It’s the rookie righty on the mound Friday. Montero (6-6) earned the win last Sunday, allowing five hits and one walk over five scoreless innings against the Orioles. He struck out one. Montero did not allow a run for the second game in a row, with the biggest threat coming when he worked around a one-out second and third situation in the third inning.

The 24-year-old was pulled following just 63 pitches through five innings after coming off a complete-game shutout of the Rockies in his previous outing. Montero’s ERA has dropped nearly a full run thanks to his most recent performances, moving from 5.47 to 4.60 with a 1.27 WHIP and 66 strikeouts through 88 innings. Montero’s big week earned him American League Player of the Week honors.

“His five or six innings every time out has been super important to maintain the rest and recovery for pitchers like (Jason) Foley, (Tyler) Holton and (Will) Vest and guys that we’re leaning on heavily,” Hinch said of his bullpen.

Detroit is 41-37 on the road this season and has won 10 of its last 13 games away from Comerica Park. The Tigers and Orioles met last weekend at Comerica Park, with the Tigers winning two-of-three games.

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Why Bet on Baltimore?

Gunnar Henderson is three homers shy of becoming the fourth shortstop (11th occurrence) in MLB history to hit 40 home runs, joining Alex Rodriguez (6x, 1998-2003), Rico Petrocelli (1969), and Ernie Banks (4x, 1957-60). With three more long balls, Henderson would be the second player in Orioles history to hit 40 homers and steal 20 bases, along with Brady Anderson (50 HR, 21 SB) in 1996. Henderson is on pace to score 121 times; Roberto Alomar, Frank Robinson (122 in 1966), and Cal Ripken, Jr. (121 in 1983) are the only players in Orioles history (since 1954) to score at least 120 runs in a season.

Anthony Santander

Santander is the eighth Oriole (ninth occurrence) to hit 40 home runs in a season, and the first since Mark Trumbo in 2016. He’s the eighth switch-hitter (12th occurrence) in MLB history to hit at least 40 homers in a season. Santander hit the game-winning homer in the ninth inning of Thursday’s big win over San Francisco, his 42nd of the year.

The Orioles have been struggling for weeks in part due to having some key guys on the injured list led by first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, second baseman Jordan Westburg and third baseman Ramon Urias. All three are getting pretty close to returning, with Westburg and Urias starting minor-league rehab assignments at Triple-A Norfolk on Thursday.

Jordan Westburg

Westburg, a first-time All-Star this season, was one of Baltimore’s biggest bats earlier this year, slashing .269/.317/.497 with 25 doubles, five triples, 18 home runs and 58 RBIs in 101 games. Urias was among the Orioles’ hottest hitters in August, batting .260 with five homers and an .858 OPS in 27 games last month. Mountcastle (.265, 13 HRs, 61 RBIs) should be back by the end of the regular season.

Craig Kimbrel

Earlier this week, the Orioles released former All-Star closer Kimbrel. The 36-year-old signed to a one-year, $13MM deal over the winter after All-Star closer Felix Bautista required Tommy John surgery last October. Kimbrel had an excellent first half in posting a 2.80 ERA and 53:16 K:BB over 35.1 innings while notching 23 saves. However, since the All-Star break he has a 10.59 ERA, 2.18 WHIP and 15 walks in 17 frames. Kimbrel was being used in a mop-up role this month, and in his most recent appearance Tuesday, he allowed six runs while recording just two outs. That was the last straw.

Corbin Burnes

It’s the ace righty on the mound Friday. Burnes (14-8, 3.06 ERA) got the win Saturday against the Tigers. He allowed two hits and a walk with seven strikeouts in seven scoreless innings. Burnes was nearly unhittable as he got through seven innings with ease, at one point retiring 12 straight hitters. It was Burnes’ first scoreless start of the season and his most innings thrown in a scoreless start since September 10, 2023, at the Yankees (8.0 IP).

With a K/9 rate of 8.1 and a FIP of 3.71 on the season, Burnes continues to show he can dominate batters. He will be the top free-agent starting pitcher on the market this winter. He owns a lifetime 2-0 record with a 0.82 ERA (2 ER/22.0 IP) in four outings (3 GS) against Detroit.