Contrarian Strategy: Going Against The Grain When Betting The Super Bowl

Posted by Eric Williams on Tuesday,January 31, 2017 10:58, EST in

If you’re excited about the quickly approaching Super Bowl 51 matchup between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks and you’re looking for reasons to ‘go against the grain’ with your many of your betting selections, then look no further!

Thanks to my expert analysis, you’re about to get a trio of great reasons why going against public opinion or the majority of Super Bowl 51 bettors is often a wise idea. Before you bet on the NFL playoffs, click here to cash in on the latest Super Bowl 51 promos.

Contrarian Strategy: Going Against The Grain When Betting The Super Bowl

 

 

New England’s Super Bowl Failures

While the Patriots won and covered the spread as a Pick ‘Em in their 28-24 Super Bowl 49 win over Seattle, New England failed to cover the spread as a favorite in each of their our previous Super Bowl matchups, so history alone says you should go against the grain and back Atlanta as a 3-point underdog in Super Bowl 51.

In Super Bowl 46, New England lost to the New York Giants 21-17 despite being a 2.5-point favorite. In Super Bowl 42, the Patriots failed to cover the Super Bowl betting line as a 12-point favorite against the Giants. In Super Bowl 38, the Pats failed to cover the spread as a touchdown favorite over Philly and in Super Bowl 37 one year earlier, New England failed to cash in as a 7-point favorite against Carolina.

Recent Super Bowl History

In Super Bowl 50 last year, the Panthers cashed in as a 5-point underdog in their 24-10 win over Carolina. In Super Bowl 48, Seattle blasted Denver off the field despite being a 2.5-point underdog. One year earlier, San Francisco managed to cover the Super Bowl betting line as a 4.5-point dog in their 34-31 loss to Baltimore.

In Super Bowl 44, New Orleans beat Indianapolis outright 31-17 despite being a 5-point underdog and in Super Bowl 43 Arizona covered the spread as a 7-point underdog in their narrow 27-23 loss to Pittsburgh. Over the last 15 Super Bowls, underdogs have gone 11-3-1 ATS so there’s plenty of reasons to go against the grain in Super Bowl 51 with your ATS pick.

 

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My Super Bowl 51 Pick

Last but not least, another great reason to go against the grain with your Super Bowl 51 pick is the fact that I like the underdog Falcons to cover the spread as a 3-point underdog – by beating the Patriots outright.

The Falcons have recorded a stellar 12-6 ATS mark this season while going 5-1 ATS over their last six games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record, not to mention the fact that the underdog has covered the spread four times in the last five meetings between the Falcons and Patriots.