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Trevor Lawrence leads the Jacksonville Jaguars into Kansas City on Saturday afternoon to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. In the regular season matchup between the Jags and Chiefs, KC got the win via a 27-17 score. Will this NFL Divisional Round contest end with a similar score? Or have the Jags improved enough to challenge KC against the spread? Check out NFL Playoffs Lines, analysis, and a free pick for Jacksonville at Kansas City.

NFL Divisional Round Betting Preview for Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City

NFL Playoffs Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars versus Kansas City Chiefs

When: Saturday, Jan. 21 at 4:30 pm ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV / Streaming: NBC/Peacock
ATS Odds: Kansas City -8.5
Money line Odds: Jacksonville +355 / Kansas City -460
Over/Under Odds: 52.5

Why bet on Jacksonville versus Kansas City?

Jacksonville had every chance to give up in their stunning 31-30 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Jaguars were down 27-0 before rallying for the win.

The fact the Jags came back from an almost 30 points deficit to beat a quality team like the Chargers says a lot about their character. Not only that, but the win should have boosted Trevor Lawrence’s confidence. Expect a fired up and tough Jaguars side to step on GEHA Field on Saturday.

Jacksonville Jaguars Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 357.4

Passing Yards: 232.9

Rushing Yards: 124.5

Points Scored: 23.8

Turnovers: 22

Jacksonville Jaguars Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 353.3

Passing Yards: 238.5

Rushing Yards: 114.8

Points Scored: 20.6

Takeaways: 26

Why bet on Kansas City versus Jacksonville?

There were moments during the regular season where we had to question how good the Kansas City Chiefs are. But ever since a 27-24 loss to the Bengals in Week 13, KC has rolled.

The Chiefs are on a 5-game winning streak with victories over Denver twice, Houston, Seattle, and Las Vegas. KC boasts the league’s top offense while the defense has climbed to eleventh in total yards allowed per game.

Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Averages

Total Yards: 413.6
Passing Yards: 297.8
Rushing Yards: 115.9
Points Scored: 29.2
Turnovers: 23

Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Averages

Total Yards: 328.2

Passing Yards: 220.9

Rushing Yards: 107.2

Points Scored: 21.7

Takeaways: 19

Jaguars at Chiefs Relevant Trends

Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-5-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings
Over is 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last 4 versus a team with a winning record
Chiefs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games
Kansas City is 0-4 ATS versus a team with a winning record
Under is 5-1 in the Chiefs’ last 6 games at home

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs Final Betting Prediction

The odds suggest Kansas City blows out Jacksonville. That could happen but the likelier scenario is the Jaguars keep this closer than the spread.

Although the Chiefs have won 5 straight, they’ve gone 2-3 against the spread in those 5 games. Overall, KC went 5-11-1 ATS during the regular season.

The problem is that throughout the season, oddsmakers have set spread lines that overvalue Kansas City. Andy Reid doesn’t care about covering spreads. Reid calls a meticulous game that involves a bend but don’t break defensive strategy.

Because of that, the Chiefs almost always win but almost never cover. In this case, Kansas City will have to fight hard to just get the victory. Jacksonville is a solid club. The rally from last week’s wild card victory will have bolstered the Jaguars’ overall confidence. Backing Jacksonville against the spread makes sense.

NFL Divisional Round Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5