Dolphins Poised for a Swim or Sink Season? Analyzing Betting Lines for the NFL Season

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In his first season as the Miami Dolphins head coach, Mike McDaniel had up and downs. But towards the end of the season, McDaniel had the Fins playing their best football. In fact, Miami was on the cusp of upsetting the Buffalo Bills in a wildcard game.

Offseason additions have made Miami one of this seasons teams to watch. Check out a recap of Miami’s betting record from 2022, the Fins’ regular season schedule, and a 2023 Miami Dolphins season betting analysis.

Let’s see if Miami Dolphins have what it takes to back the betting lines to win the Super Bowl.

Miami Dolphins 2023 Season Betting Analysis | MyBookie NFL Betting Preview

Miami Dolphins | 54th season as a member of the National Football League
Owner: Stephen M. Ross
Head coach: Mike McDaniel
Home field: Hard Rock Stadium | Miami Gardens, Florida

What is Miami’s Straight Up Prediction this Season?

The Dolphins made an addition on offense and an addition on defense that should lead to more wins, at least one more win, in 2023 than in 2022.

The addition on offense might strike some Dolphins fans as meaningless. Miami signed solid quarterback Mike White to back up Tua Tagovailoa. Why is that important?

Tua is one concussion away from retirement. If Tagovailoa suffers another concussion, NFL doctors, and his family, will force him into a second career. Having White as your top backup is a big deal.

The second addition is corner Jalen Ramsey. The Rams acquired Ramsey to help them win a Super Bowl. It worked. Now that Los Angeles is a mess, Jalen bolted to what he perceives as a contender.

Ramsey remains one of the top corners in the league. Jalen will play opposite Xavien Howard, which means the Fins might have the top pair of corners in the NFL.

The additions, White and Ramsey, should lead to at least one more win. The Dolphins lose to the Chargers or Patriots, the Bills at least once, the Eagles, the Chiefs, once to the Jets, and to either the Cowboys or Ravens. Miami finishes the regular season with a 10-7 straight up record.

What will Miami’s Against the Dpread Record Be this Season?

Miami’s record against the spread last season was 9-8. The AFC East is deep this season. The worst team could be the Patriots and the Patriots could end up surprising.

Not only that, but Miami faces the NFC East with three playoff teams from last season: the New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, and Philadelphia Eagles. So we should expect another 9-8 ATS record.

What will be the Over Under Total Record for Miami Dolphins’ Games in 2023?

The Dolphins have a great offense, but oddsmakers were almost perfect assigning over under Miami totals. The Dolphins went 8-9 over to under.

There’s no reason to believe oddsmakers don’t set lines that make handicapping overs and unders difficult. Fair over under lines, though, lead to more betting wins than losses.

Consider trends for sure and always look at injury reports. Also, remember the two additions. So even if Tua doesn’t play, Mike White is good enough to run McDaniel’s offensive system. Over might be the play in those Miami games because oddsmakers could create totals that emphasize betting under.

At the end, another 8-9 or 9-8 over under total looks more than probable.

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Previous Betting News

For any team to go on and win the Super Bowl, they need to have a solid squad of players. That said, it all begins with the QB that a team has in place. The list of elite QBs is a short one, but a good QB can do great things if they have the weapons to help them succeed. I think it is fair to suggest that the jury is still out on Tua Tagovailoa in Miami, but it does seem that the Dolphins front office want to do all they can to get the best out of their young QB. That became very clear when they went out and picked up WR Tyreek Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs. They also have an offensive minded new head coach in Mike McDaniel, so is this going to be a breakout year for Miami? I think we might get the answer quite quickly, as the opening 4 games of the season are all tough. That is why I am focusing on those 4 games for this piece. Let’s take a look at the Miami Dolphins must bet games so you can continue planning your bets against their NFL Odds.

Miami Dolphins Must Bet Regular Season Games From Week 1 to 4 | NFL Betting

Week 1 Vs New England Patriots

If we are to believe that the Buffalo Bills are a shoo-in to win the division, which is certainly easy enough to believe, then it’s going to be a battle for Wild Card spots between the Dolphins and the Patriots. Starting at how certainly gives Miami a bit of an edge, but besides the importance of this game in terms of the playoff race, it’s also going to be cool to het a look at Tyreek Hill in his first official game as a Dolphin.

Week 2 at Baltimore Ravens

If Week 1 is a divisional test, then Week 2 has to be seen as a way for the Dolphins to measure where they potentially stand in the AFC as a whole. Most of us expect the Baltimore Ravens to be vying for the #1 seed in the conference, so if the Dolphins can go on the road and put on a solid display, even without winning, then that might just give us a better idea of what to expect from them this season.

Week 3 Vs Buffalo Bills

The brutal start to the season continues by welcoming in the team that the bookies have in as the favorites to win the Super Bowl this year. The Buffalo Bills are stacked from top bottom and should not, barring injuries to key personnel, have too much problem making it back to the playoffs again this season. This, though, will be an opportunity for the Dolphins to perhaps plant a seed of doubt, but they are going to need to deliver something special to get the win here.

Week 4 at Cincinnati Bengals

It was a surprise to see the Bengals make it all the way to the Super Bowl last season. Yes, this is a team on the rise, but the feeling in 2021 was that they were still a season or two away from competing for championships. They have arrived early and are one of the teams to beat this season, which means another tough one for Miami. There is a chance that the Dolphins could be 0-4 to start the year. But of they even go .500 through this stretch, we might be looking at a team ready to make a run.

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Previous Betting News

What a crazy offseason it was for the Miami Dolphins. They fired head coach Brian Flores, who then sued the franchise and the NFL for racial discrimination. They hired Mike McDaniel, the former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator, to replace Flores.

Miami also made a huge splash in the free agent market. They signed offensive linemen Terron Armstead and Connor Williams, running backs Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel, and wide receiver Cedrick Wilson. The Dolphins wanted to give McDaniel plenty of offensive weapons to work with.

However, the biggest weapon was acquired in a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs, as Miami brought in Tyreek Hill to help bolster their offense. Pairing Hill with Jaylen Waddle should make for a very dynamic offense. The key to the offense will be the development of Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovaiola has been highly scrutinized in his first two seasons. We’ll see if having a lot of weapons at his disposal will help speed up his development. With all that said, it’s time to have a look at the Miami Dolphins and a NFL Betting Guide for the 2022 Season.

Dolphins 2022 Season NFL Betting Guide to Help You Bet On Their Odds

2022 Projected Win Total

The oddsmakers have spoken, and the over/under for the Dolphins has been set at 8.5 wins. It’s hard to believe that it’s this low, but it’s obvious that the oddsmakers don’t believe in Tagovailoa. The Dolphins defense struggled to start the 2021 season, but they rebounded nicely and the Dolphins still won 9 games. This team has much better personnel and should be able to put up a lot of points and do an adequate job of stopping the other team from scoring.

If we were going to place a bet on the Dolphins win total, we’d go over the 8.5.

Odds to Win the AFC East

Unfortunately for the Miami Dolphins, they’re in the same division as the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is a -250 to win the division, while the Dolphins have the second-best odds at +400. Buffalo is the favorite to win the Super Bowl this season. If Josh Allen were to go down, we’d like the Dolphins a lot more, but if that doesn’t happen, we see the Dolphins as a wild card team.

Odds to Win the AFC

The Dolphins are a +2000 to win the AFC. Even though Miami has one of the most talented rosters in the conference, the AFC is loaded this season. As we stated earlier, Buffalo is the favorite to win the Super Bowl. The AFC West is loaded, as the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers should both be playoff teams. We can’t forget about the tough AFC North with Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh.

If the Dolphins want to win the AFC, they’re going to need Tagovailoa to have a monster season, and they’ll need to catch a lot of breaks along the way.

Odd to Win the Super Bowl

At a +4000 to win the big one, the Dolphins would be a great value bet. We think it’s a big longshot, especially since they could be the 7th or 8th best team in their own conference. Anything can happen, and if some key players for other teams go down with injuries, and Tagovailoa exceeds expectations, the Dolphins could be a sneaky Super Bowl pick.

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Previous Betting News

After the Miami Dolphins saw starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill go down with a season-ending ACL tear in a training camp practice, a year ago, they foolishly decided to go with recently retired career underachiever Jay Cutler as their starting signal-caller in 2017. Predictably, Cutler started 14 games while going 6-8 in those contests and Miami finished with a pitiful 6-10 record when they could have signed, oh, let’s say Colin Kaepernick.

Now, as the Fins get set for the upcoming 2018 season, Miami is looking to get back to being the double-digit winning team they were in 2016 when they went 10-6 to reach the postseason for the first time since 2008. Whether the Dolphins can fulfill their playoff hopes in 2018, there are a bunch of games that they’re going to play in that NFL betting fans and enthusiasts alike just shouldn’t miss out on.

Here’s my expert betting take on those contests!

Miami Dolphins 2018 NFL Betting Guide

Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 9, vs. Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. ET

The Titans might have a new head coach in Mike Vrabel that is inexperienced and they might need some time to adjust to his new style, but they’ve also got the best quarterback in this matchup with Marcus Mariota being infinitely better than Ryan Tannehill.

NFL Betting Pick: Titans: 27 Dolphins 24

Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 23, vs. Oakland Raiders, 1 p.m. ET

Like their Week 1 matchup, Derek Carr is so much better than Ryan Tannehill it isn’t even funny. Hell, Jon Gruden could out-coach Adam Gase from the TV booth for that matter. The Raiders get the road win in this Week 3 matchup as Gruden starts to whip them back into being a playoff contender.

NFL Betting Pick: Raiders 30 Dolphins 21

Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 30, at New England Patriots, 1 p.m. ET

The only thing you need to worry about in this Week 4 matchup is whether New England will cover the chalk as a double-digit home favorite. The Super Bowl champs cashed in a year ago as a 17-point home fave, so…there’s that!

NFL Betting Pick: Patriots 35 Dolphins 21

Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 7, at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET

I’m expecting the Bengals to be a lot better than anyone thinks at this point. Andy Dalton and company put more points on the board in this one to get the home win.

NFL Betting Pick: Bengals 30 Dolphins 20

Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 14, vs. Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET

Maybe it’s me, but I’ll easily take Chicago’s second-year signal-caller Mitchell Trubisky over the mediocre Tannehill. Still, I think the Fins pull out the super narrow home win in a shootout!

NFL Betting Pick: Dolphins 28 Bears 27

Week 8: Thursday, Oct. 25, at Houston Texans, 8:20 p.m. ET

There is literally no way that Miami pulls off the Thursday night road upset in this one over Deshaun Watson, J.J. watt and a Houston Texans team hoping to reach the AFC Championship.

NFL Betting Pick: Texans 35 Dolphins 14

Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 4, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET

The Dolphins get the win at home against their longtime AFC East division rivals – if only because they’re at home. However, let me also say that New York signal-caller Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater are both far better than Ryan Tannehill!

NFL Betting Pick: Dolphins 27 Jets 24

Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 11, at Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m. ET

To get right to the point, there is absolutely no way that Miami marches into Green Bay and get the upset win over Aaron Rodgers and company.

NFL Betting Pick: Packers 35 Dolphins 27

Week 13: Sunday, Dec. 2, vs. Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET

The Fins get a much-needed win at home in this one over a Bills team that could be awful at quarterback depending on how either A.J. McCarron or Nathan Peterman perform.

NFL Betting Pick: Dolphins 20 Bills 17

Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 9, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m. ET

The Patriots have lost four of their last five road dates in South Florida, but they won’t drop this late-season matchup if only because they’ll be looking to pick up momentum before the playoffs.

NFL Betting Pick: Patriots 31 Dolphins 21

Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 16, at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. ET

If the Minnesota Vikings powerful defense doesn’t pick off Tannehill at least twice in this affair, I’ll be completely stunned. Kirk Cousins leads Minnesota to the big home win in this Week 15 mismatch.

NFL Betting Pick: Vikings 38 Dolphins 17

Previous Betting News

The Miami Dolphins (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) have had a surprising 2016 campaign in the first year of the Adam Gase era. While the Fins reached the double-digit win plateau and earned a wild card playoff berth in the process, they surely would like nothing better than to pull off the huge upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers in their playoff opener.

If you need to know what lies in store for the upstart Dolphins as they get set for their online betting playoff opener this weekend, then you’ve come to the right place, thanks to the expert postseason betting analysis that you’re going to get on Miami’s first playoff appearance in a decade. Let’s get started.

A Closer Look At The Miami Dolphins NFL Postseason Betting Analysis

Super Bowl 51 Odds: +6000
AFC Championship Odds: +3000

Why Bet on the Dolphins

The first reason to bet on the Miami Dolphins this postseason is that they’ll hit the playoffs playing solid football, despite getting spanked by New England in their regular season finale. Miami won three of their final four games and eight of their last 11 overall, so they clearly have some momentum going for them.

The best reason to back the Dolphins however is their understated, but tough defense. Miami finished the regular season ranked a respectable 15th against the pass (242.2 ypg) and 18th in points allowed (23.8 ppg). The Dolphins have plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, starting with outstanding defensive linemen Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh.

Not only that, but the Dolphins found out they have a superstar talent in running back Jay Ajayi (1,272 yards) that helped them finish the regular season ranked rank ninth in rushing (114.0 ypg). Miami also has a pair of gifted wide receivers in Jarvis Landry (1,136 yards) and Kenny Stills (9 TDs).

Last but not least, I think another good reason to bet on the Dolphins this postseason is the fact that former starter and ‘franchise’ signal-caller Ryan Tannehill will miss the playoffs in favor of veteran backup Matt Moore.

In three starts and two relief appearances this season, Moore has helped Miami go 4-1 while completing a solid 63.2 percent with eight TD passes and three interceptions while compiling a stellar quarterback rating of 105.6. For me, Moore is simply more of leader than Tannehill and a far better deep-ball passer.

Miami has also compiled a bunch of positive ATS trends that make them look attractive this postseason. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against their AFC conference counterparts and a consistent 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Why Bet Against the Dolphins

The Dolphins may be in the playoffs, but they’re far from perfect and present several good reasons why you should bet against them this postseason. First and foremost, Miami gave up a whopping 66 points in splitting their last two games against Buffalo and New England and ranked a dismal 29th in total defense (382.6 ypg) and a discouraging 30th against the run (140.4 ypg).

The Dolphins also struggled at times on offense and finished the regular season ranked an uninspiring 24th in total offense (332.8 ypg), 26th in passing (218.8 ypg) and modest 17th in scoring (22.7 ppg).

Miami has also put together some discouraging ATS trends that don’t look very good as they hit the playoffs. The Dolphins are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS loss, 3-7 ATS in their L/10 games against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last five road playoff games.

Last but not least, while Adam Gase has been a revelation for the Dolphins this season, the first-year head coach won’t have the edge over any of Miami’s potential opponents this postseason as he’s the most inexperienced coach in the postseason.

Previous Betting News

Did you know that you can make online sportsbook NFL odds at mybookie.ag right now? That’s right gridiron gaming aficionados…thanks to the release of odds on virtually every game on the 2016 NFL regular season schedule, you can start making plans to cash in right now! With that thought in mind, let’s get started with my quartet of free picks on four Miami Dolphins 2016 regular season games.

Here’s a Closer Analysis of the Miami Dolphins Top NFL Spreads for the Upcoming 2016 Regular Season!

Week 5

Tennessee Titans at Miami (-5.5)

While I’m not real high on the Miami Dolphins heading into 2016, the fact of the matter is that this is a home game the Dolphins almost have to win if they want to have any chance at a successful season. Tennessee lost seven of its eight road games in 2015 while going 3-4-1 ATS along the way and I believe they made a mistake by hiring longtime NFL veteran Mike Mularkey as their new head coach after firing Ken Whisenhunt last season.

While Miami was just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS at home last season, I do like the hiring of former Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase, although I’m still not – and may never be – quite sold on underachieving quarterback Ryan Tannehill. In the end, I’m going to back the Miami Dolphins to narrowly cover the spread, mostly because they’re playing at home and could be desperate for a win, even at this early juncture of the 2016 regular season.

The Pick: Miami 30 Tennessee 24

Week 7

Buffalo Bills at Miami (-1)

The only reason I like the Dolphins at home in this Week 7 AFC East divisional battle is because Mimi lost both regular season meetings against the Bills a year ago and five of the last six meetings overall. The good news for the Fins is that they’ve gone 3-2 SU and ATS over their last five home games against Buffalo. Miami gets a small measure of revenge.

The Pick: Miami 27 Buffalo 24

Week 9

New York Jets at Miami (PK)

The Dolphins have lost three straight games against the Jets and a stunning four straight at home against their longtime division rivals. While I don’t think the Dolphins are going to be better than New York in 2016 and I certainly don’t believe that Adam Gase will be a better head coach than New York’s Todd Bowles, I am going to urge you to back the Dolphins to cover the NFL betting line in this one, for absolutely no concrete reason at all other than the fact that the Fins are due for a win against the J-E-T-S!

The Pick: Miami 21 New York 20

Week 12

San Francisco 49ers at Miami (-5)

These teams have met only three times dating back to 2004, so I won’t get into a whole lot of ATS statistics that mean nothing for this matchup. The long and short of it is that both of these teams have new head coaches with the Niners choosing former Eagles and Oregon offensive genius Chip Kelly to lead them in a new direction just weeks after he infamously flamed out in Philly.

While I believe Kelly is the better offensive mind over Gase in this contest, Miami is playing at home against a Niners team that, on paper, is about evenly matched against the Fins. Again, sheer desperation will be the driving force behind a Miami win. Well, that and the fact that Kelly cares absolutely nothing about defense whatsoever The Dolphins win and narrowly cash in as my final NFL online sportsbook pick!

The Pick: Miami 38 San Francisco 31