Colorado vs Cincinnati: MLB Betting Predictions

All that Cincinnati Reds lefty Andrew Abbott has done in his first three big-league starts is win them all and not allow an earned run in any. Yet he’s not among the NL Rookie of the Year favorites at +4000. Abbott and the red-hot Reds are sizable home favorites Wednesday on the MLB odds to keep rolling vs. Colorado.

Reds Rookie Off To Historic Start, Faces Rockies Wednesday | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Colorado at Cincinnati MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 12:35 PM ET
Where: Great American Ball Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Kyle Freeland/Andrew Abbott
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Reds -190, Rockies +170 (total 9.5)

Why Bet on Colorado?

Colorado is expected to be without starting shortstop Ezequiel Tovar for one more game on the paternity leave list. Tovar came out of Sunday’s series finale, ironically on Father’s Day, against the Braves after his wife went into labor. Tovar had a miserable April but since the calendar flipped to May, a 41-game sample, Tovar is batting .273 with a .480 slugging percentage and all six of his homers on the season.

Tovar’s 15 doubles since April 26 are tied for the fifth-most in the Majors. His 19 doubles on the season are tied for the eighth-most in the NL. As the weather continues to warm up, expect more production from Tovar, who last season batted .333 in Triple-A and posted a .318 average with a .545 slugging percentage as a 20-year-old at Double-A Hartford. Connor Kaiser was called up to take his spot on the Rockies’ active roster.

Since May 23, third baseman Ryan McMahon leads the Majors in OBP, is second in OPS (1.216), third in batting and slugging and tied for third in extra-base hits. Mahon’s 1.8 WAR (Baseball Reference) leads NL players with at least 50% of their games at third base this season. His 10 defensive runs saved are tied for the most among third basemen.

It’s lefty Kyle Freeland on the mound here. Freeland (4-8) took the loss last Thursday, allowing seven runs on nine hits and three walks over 4.1 innings against Atlanta. He struck out one. Most of the damage against Freeland came in the second inning, when he was tagged for five runs on four hits. The 30-year-old had pitched well in his prior two starts, allowing three runs over 12 innings, though he’s only logged five or more strikeouts once in his last six outings. Freeland’s ERA is now up to 4.48 with a 1.34 WHIP and 50:22 K:BB through 15 starts (80.1 innings).

Freeland’s eight losses lead the National League and he has not received a winning decision since May 14 vs. Philadelphia. He has gone 1-6 with a 5.92 ERA (38.0 IP, 25 ER) in seven road starts this season. Freeland is 3-2 with a 6.34 ERA (38.1 IP, 27 ER) in seven career starts against the Reds. He last faced the Reds on Sept. 2, 2022 in Cincinnati, taking a no-decision after allowing one run over 5.2 innings at Great American Ball Park.

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Why Bet on Cincinnati?

On April 23, the Reds were 8 games under .500 (7-15) and 8.5 games out of first place, both season highs. They have the best record in the Central Division since. The Reds leads the National League with 23 come-from-behind wins. They have won their past four series.

Reds icon and former NL MVP Joey Votto made his season debut off injury on Monday and was 2-for-3 with a homer and three RBIs, making the Reds offense that much better. As their best hitter, Votto is usually hitting second or third in the lineup. But Monday night, Votto returned to the lineup batting sixth. Votto, at 39, is the veteran on a young team. He’ll just try to be one of the guys and earn his playing time. He struggled with a .173/.340/.333 slash line in 22 rehab games with Triple-A Louisville prior to his MLB return.

“He’s so excited to be part of our team,” Reds manager David Bell said. “He’s been watching. He’s done everything to stay connected to our team and come back and contribute. He meant a lot to our team. He’s been a part of this the whole time.”

It’s rookie lefty Andrew Abbott (3-0) on the mound Wednesday. Abbott shut out the Astros for six innings Friday. Abbott gave up 411- and 407-foot flies to center that would have been homers in a lot of parks, but they were outs in Houston. Abbott wound up with two strikeouts and just four missed swings on 83 pitches, so it was far from a dominant outing.

Cincinnati’s No. 6 overall prospect became the first pitcher since the mound was set to its current distance in 1893 with at least five scoreless innings in each of his first three games. Abbott’s 17.2 scoreless innings to start his career also has broken the Cincinnati franchise record, previously held by Wayne Simpson, who pitched 15 shutout innings to begin his career back in 1970. Almost exactly two years ago, Abbott was pitching in the College World Series for Virginia.

“It’s bound to happen, but I’m going to try and keep it going as long as possible, let’s put it that way,” said Abbott of allowing a run. Abbott is one of nine Reds to make his MLB debut this season.

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