Can the Panthers Claw Back and Conquer in Game 7? Analysis & NHL Odds Breakdown

The only team to rally from a 3-0 deficit in the best-of-7 Stanley Cup Finals to win the Cup was Toronto in 1942, but the Edmonton Oilers can join that exclusive group on Monday when they visit the Florida Panthers in Game 7 to conclude the 2023-24 NHL season. The Panthers are short favorites on the NHL odds despite losing the past three in the series.

Edmonton at Florida, Game 7: 2024 NHL Expert Analysis

Edmonton Oilers Betting Lines -108

This marks the 198th Game 7 in Stanley Cup Playoffs history and 18th in the Stanley Cup Finals – and the first since the visiting St. Louis Blues defeated the Boston Bruins for their first championship in 2019.

The Oilers look nothing like that team that was outscored 15-4 in the first three games as they have won the next three by a combined score of 18-5.  Edmonton is the third team in NHL history to rally from a 3-0 deficit to force a Game 7 in the Stanley Cup Finals following the 1945 Detroit Red Wings (4-3 L vs. TOR) and 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs (4-3 W vs. DET). Edmonton is the 10th team in playoff history overall to force a Game 7 after trailing 3-0 and only four of the previous nine won. Edmonton will be playing 13th all-time Game 7 (8-4) and third in the Stanley Cup Final, following a 3-1 win in 1987 (vs. Philadelphia) and a 3-1 loss in 2006 (at Carolina).

Zach Hyman scored his league-leading 16th goal of these playoffs in the 5-1 win in Game 6. The only other players with as many in a single postseason over the last 30 years are Joe Sakic (18 in 1996) and Pavel Bure (16 in 1994).  Hyman also became the third active player to score 70 total goals in a season (regular season & playoffs), joining current teammate Connor McDavid (72 in 2022-23) and former teammate Auston Matthews (70 in 2023-24).

Edmonton became the 21st team in NHL history to hold a multi-goal lead in three straight games during any playoff series while facing elimination in each contest and second this postseason (also Carolina in Round 2 vs. the Rangers). The Oilers joined the 1942 Maple Leafs (Game 5-7) as the second team to do so in a Final. The Oilers have 18 goals when facing elimination in the final, the second-highest total to the 1942 Maple Leafs (19).

“It’s been fun,” said Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch of the comeback. “I know we surprised a lot of people, but I don’t think we surprised anybody in the room. We felt that we could do this. We felt, early in the series, down three, we felt that we could have won two of those. We thought we played well enough to win those and they didn’t go our way.”

The Oilers are 3-1 in this series when scoring first, and 13-5 over the postseason. That compares to a 2-4 record when the opposition is first on the board. But when it comes to having their backs up against the wall, the Oilers have scored first in every instance on the way to being 5-0 when facing elimination. In games where their opponents are the ones on the ropes, the Oilers have also scored first in all three rounds, going 3-0 to advance at the first opportunity every time.

Goaltender Stuart Skinner has stopped 81 of 86 shots over the past three games, making timely saves at critical times to keep the final going. Skinner is 10-0 these playoffs in Games 4-7 of a series. The only other goalies to win 10 or more times in those situations in a single postseason are Jordan Binnington in 2019, Corey Crawford in 2013 and Martin Brodeur in 2012, and his 1.50 goals-against average in Games 4-7 is fourth best in NHL history.

“He’s definitely stepped up,” alternate captain Leon Draisaitl said. “I think he’s been playing great for us, and we expect it coming down the stretch here. He’s one of those guys, one of those goalies who steps up in big moments.”

Florida Panthers Betting Lines -113

Fair or not, the Panthers will be called legendary chokers if they blow their chance to win their first-ever Stanley Cup with four tries at it.  The Panthers are set to compete in their fourth all-time Game 7 and are 2-1 in the previous three.  Home teams own a 12-5 advantage in the 17 prior Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Finals. Coach Paul Maurice is 4-0 in four career Game 7s.

“I’m not concerned about the past at all,” Maurice said after the Game 5 loss. “Our plan is set. I know it’s 3-3. But the concern of the previous three games certainly didn’t affect Edmonton, and it won’t affect us.”

Matthew Tkachuk (six goals, 16 assists for 22 points in 22 games) can become the sixth U.S.-born player to lead his team in points (outright or tied) in consecutive playoff years (min. 10 GP in each year). He can join Patrick Kane (3x; 2013 to 2015), Zach Parise (2014 to 2015), Mike Modano (1998 to 1999), Doug Weight (1997 to 1998) and Brian Leetch (1994 to 1995). Tkachuk and captain Aleksander Barkov are tied atop the Panthers with 22 points each.

Barkov and Edmonton’s Connor McDavid (3-8—11 in 6 GP) have combined for 16 points which ties the highest cumulative total by captains during a championship series in NHL history, set by Wayne Gretzky (3-10—13 in 5 GP) and Ray Bourque (0-3—3 in 5 GP) in 1988 (including suspended contest).

Florida has seven comeback wins during the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs (including one in the Final), matching a franchise record set last year. The club has five multi-goal comeback wins in their playoff history. Monday’s game will be the 1,400th of 2023-24 (regular season & playoffs), which will tie 2022-23 for second most in a season – one short of the 1,401 games played in 2021-22.

Panthers forward Vladimir Tarasenko is the only member of either team to appear in Game 7 of a Stanley Cup Finals. Tarasenko was an alternate captain for the 2019 Blues in the most recent seventh-and-deciding game in the Finals, notching an assist in St. Louis’ 4-1 win over the Bruins. Tarasenko leads all Panthers skaters in overall Game 7 appearances (5 GP), boasting a 4-1 record in those contests.

One hundred and two of the 197 all-time Game 7s in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (51.8%) have been decided by a one-goal margin, including three in 2024 and six of seven since the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

While the Panthers and Oilers have not required extra time yet in the series, each of the previous five Stanley Cup Finals series (since 2019) have required at least one overtime game. Only two Stanley Cup Final Game 7s have gone to overtime, both won by Detroit at home: in 1950, when Pete Babando scored at 8:31 of double-overtime to lift the Red Wings over the Rangers, and 1954, when Tony Leswick scored at 4:29 of the extra session to power Detroit past Montreal.

Bet Panthers at Oilers NHL Odds

When: Monday, 8 PM ET
Where: Amerant Bank Arena
TV: ABC
Stream: ESPN+
Radio: Tunein.com

The @EdmontonOilers were down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers in the @NHL Stanley Cup Finals. Now it’s 3-3. Game 7 is Monday at 8pm on ABC.

If the Oilers win, it will be one of the greatest stories in the history of North American professional sports.

No team has ever come back… pic.twitter.com/MydxZPhULY

— Steve McGuire (@sfmcguire79) June 22, 2024

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