Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners Odds & Score Prediction

The best pitching matchup around the majors on Thursday likely is from Seattle as a pair of aces face off in young White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet and Mariners veteran and AL Cy Young candidate Luis Castillo – thus, it’s a very low total on the MLB odds as they conclude their series.

Chicago White Sox at Seattle: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Line: Mariners -175, White Sox +155 (total 6.5)
Score Prediction: Mariners 4, White Sox 2

Chicago White Sox Moneyline +123

How truly sorry are the MLB-worst White Sox? In Game 1 of this series, they led 4-0 entering the bottom of the eighth but lost 8-4 on a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the ninth. On Tuesday, touted rookie pitcher Drew Thorpe made his big-league debut and pitched well enough to win, but his bullpen blew a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the seventh in a 4-2 loss.

Ahead of Wednesday’s game, the Sox activated massively disappointing outfielder Andrew Benintendi from the 10-day injured list. This off season, he was signed to a five-year, $75 million free-agent deal and had been a mega-bust in batting .195/.230/.284 with four homers and 18 RBI before getting hurt. To make a roster spot, the team sent down outfielder Duke Ellis to Triple-A Charlotte. Ellis, 26, went hitless in four at-bats during his brief time with the White Sox, but he did manage to steal four bases while being utilized primarily as a pinch-runner.

It’s possible that fellow outfielder Tommy Pham, who is a lock to be traded, is activated for Thursday’s game but more likely this weekend. Pham, who sprained his ankle during a play at the plate in a June 2 loss at Milwaukee, was sent to Arizona for a rehab assignment earlier this week. Manager Pedro Grifol said Pham would play in seven-inning games there until the team feels he is ready to return to the big league club.

It’s young ace lefty Garrett Crochet on the mound Thursday, and he might be traded by next month’s deadline as well. Crochet (5-4) yielded two runs (one earned) on three hits and two walks over six innings last Friday, striking out 10 and earning a win over the Red Sox. Crochet gave up a pair of runs in the third inning, but only one was earned due to his own throwing error. Crochet reached 10 strikeouts for the fourth time this season while allowing two runs or fewer for the eighth straight start. He’s produced quality starts in four straight appearances and six of his last seven.

Crochet is 5-1 with a 1.10 ERA (5 ER/41.0 IP), 56 strikeouts (12.29 per 9.0 IP), .162 (24-148) opponent’s average and 0.78 WHIP in seven starts since May 1. During that span, Crochet ranks among MLB leaders in ERA (2nd), opponent’s average (2nd), WHIP (2nd), SO/9.0 IP (3rd) and SO/BB ratio (5th, 7.00). He leads MLB with an average of 12.25 strikeouts per 9.0 IP and ranks second with 103 strikeouts, the most by a White Sox pitcher in his first 14 career starts.

He is just the third MLB pitcher since at least 1901 to record 100-plus strikeouts with 17 walks or fewer over his first 14 career starts, joining the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka (113 SO/16 BB) in 2014 and Washington’s Stephen Strasburg (100 SO/17 BB) from 2010-11.

Crochet’s success is due in part to a newly introduced cut fastball that’s become the primary complement to his four-seam, but also because the move from relief to rotation came without the usual drop in velocity. When you’re striking out 34% of hitters, that’s a good way to avoid squared-up contact. Even accounting for that, Crochet is one of the hardest arms in the game to square up with his funky delivery.

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Seattle Mariners Moneyline -164

Seattle is down one of its key players in first baseman Ty France due to a fractured heel. France was initially considered day-to-day due to the issue but after continued discomfort he underwent imaging that revealed a fracture. A timetable for France’s return is not yet clear, though it seems likely to be a fairly lengthy absence. It’s a big loss, as the 29-year-old had been one of the club’s hottest hitters dating back to the start of May. In his last 34 games, France has slashed a strong .259/.353/.448 in 133 plate appearances. That strong stretch has lifted his overall season line to a respectable .251/.329/.403.

Ahead of Wednesday’s game, the team sent down pitcher Jhonathan Diaz to Triple-A Tacoma after a spot start Tuesday and recalled righty Brett de Geus, who De Geus made four appearances for the Mariners back in April, allowing one run in 3 1/3 innings. He’ll resume working in middle relief. In the bullpen, the Mariners continue to maneuver with the availability of Andrés Muñoz, who’s made just one appearance since leaving last Tuesday’s game in Oakland with a lower back strain.

“We’re kind of just in murky waters right now,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said, “trying to get through this thing as best we can. … These things happen throughout the course of the season. And this is where you’re really lean on your depth. That’s why you have other guys in the Minor Leagues and different guys that can take on different roles in our bullpen. And that’s where we’re at right now.”

Super-utility man Dylan Moore was placed on the paternity list Monday but should be back for Thursday’s finale. He is batting .213/.325/.408 with six homers, two triples, 11 doubles, nine steals and a .733 OPS in 55 games. Moore has played five different positions this season, appearing at all four infield spots and left field. He has made 24 starts at shortstop, primarily while J.P. Crawford was on the injured list with an oblique strain.

Catcher Cal Raleigh is the only player in the majors this season with multiple go-ahead grand slams this season, while his 15 RBI in the 8th-inning or later are 2nd-most in the majors.

Ace right-hander Luis Castillo is on the hill Thursday. Castillo (5-7) took the loss to the Royals last Saturday, allowing five runs on six hits and one walk while striking out for over five innings. Castillo had a tough outing as he gave up a season-high in runs.

“For Luis, nothing was easy early in the game,” Servais said. “They were making him work through at-bats. They have bat-to-ball skill up and down their lineup.”

His offense gave him the lead two separate times, but he gave it back each time as he snapped a streak of 10 straight starts allowing two earned runs or fewer. That was tied for the second-longest streak in Mariners history. Castillo remains one of the more consistent and durable starters in baseball, as he’s gone at least five innings in all of his 14 starts and will take a 3.35 ERA into Thursday.

Seattle is 32-13 (.711) when its starting pitcher goes at least six innings and 31-11 (.738) when scoring first in a game as of Wednesday. Seattle has hit 70 game-tying or go-ahead home runs in the 7th-inning or later since the start of the 2021 season, the most in the majors during that span.

Bet White Sox at Mariners MLB Odds

When: Thursday, 9:40 PM ET
Where: T-Mobile Park
Pitchers (away/home): Garrett Crochet/Luis Castillo
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/