The Philadelphia Phillies can all but wrap up the 2024 NL East title early this week by winning a series in Atlanta, which was just dealt another major injury blow.
It’s a terrific pitching matchup on Wednesday featuring Aaron Nola vs. Max Fried with the Braves as short favorites on the MLB odds.
| Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Braves -121, Phillies -101 (total 4) Score Prediction: Braves 4, Phillies 3 |
Philadelphia Phillies -101
Kyle Schwarber
Up to 121 home runs in his first three seasons with the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber has the most homers in franchise history through the first three seasons with the team (previous was Hall of Famer Jim Thome with 96 from 2003-05). In MLB history, Schwarber is one of only nine players to hit 120+ home runs in their first three seasons with a club. Currently, Schwarber is 9th in MLB history for most home runs through the first three seasons with any club. Next up for Schwarber would be Seattle’s Nelson Cruz, who hit 126 home runs in his first three seasons with the Mariners from 2015-17.
Aaron Nola on the Hill
It’s righty Nola (11-6, 3.45 ERA) on the mound. He came away with a no-decision in last Friday’s 3-2 win over the Nationals, allowing seven hits and two walks over 6.2 scoreless innings while striking out four. Nola got stronger as the game wore on and didn’t let a runner get past second base after the first inning, and he left the mound after 111 pitches (74 strikes) with the Phillies out front 2-0.
Nola had to settle for his 16th quality start of the season when Carlos Estevez blew the save in the ninth, however. It was not a dominant effort for Nola despite the shutout. He allowed six hard-hit balls while posting a mediocre 26 percent CSW. He didn’t get as many chases out of the zone on his curveball as usual, and he couldn’t command his change up at all.
Nola has gone six straight starts without getting a win personally. During that stretch, he’s posted a 3.67 ERA, 1.60 WHIP and 26:12 K:BB through 34.1 innings, and he’s fanned more than four batters only once. Fatigue isn’t likely to be a factor for the 31-year-old — he’s topped 200 innings three times in his career, and has tossed only 154 so far in 2024 — but the Phillies may look to work some extra rest the rest of the way given their comfortable lead in the NL East.
Nola vs Braves
He is 1-1 with a 7.84 ERA this year in two starts vs. Atlanta. He last faced the Braves on July 5 in Atlanta and got the win, retiring Atlanta’s first 10 batters before giving up a one-out single to Ozzie Albies in the fourth inning. Austin Riley followed with a two-run homer to center field. But those were all the runs Nola would give up over six innings. He whiffed eight with no walks.
The Phillies are 29-1 this season when a starting pitcher tosses at least 7.0 innings, and they have won 29 straight, which is the longest streak in Phillies history and the second-longest streak in MLB history. The record is 42 in a row by St. Louis in 1942. Phils starters are 26-0 during that span, with a 0.95 ERA and .150 opponents’ batting average. Also during that run, the starters have allowed 3 ER or fewer in all 29 games, 2 ER or fewer in 28 of 29 games, 1 ER or none in 23 of 29 and 0 ER in 14 of 29.
^Atlanta Braves -121
As a club, Atlanta leads all the baseball with an average exit velocity of 90.2 miles per hour. The Braves also pace the National League in barrels, with 309, and hard-hit percentage, at 42.9 percent. No player has won their league’s Triple Crown at the plate since Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera in 2012, and no NL player has won it since St. Louis’ Joe Medwick in 1937. But the Braves’ Marcell Ozuna, having a career year, has an outside shot as he leads the NL in average and RBI but is second to Shohei Ohtani in homers – that’s the title Ozuna probably will not win. Ozuna came close in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, leading the NL in homers (18) and RBI (56) but finishing third in average (.338).
Spencer Strider
The Braves already have lost preseason NL Cy Young favorite Strider to a season-ending injury, as well as reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr to the same. All-Star second baseman Ozzie Albies has been out since July 21 with a fractured wrist and will not return for likely a couple of weeks.
Austin Riley
And now excellent third baseman Riley might be done for the regular season. He was hit by a pitch on Sunday and on Monday was diagnosed with a fractured hand. With just under six weeks remaining on the regular season schedule, it could very well prove to be a season-ending injury for the two-time All-Star.
Riley has hit .256 with 19 homers and a .783 OPS overall. He missed two weeks in May with an oblique strain and didn’t really get going until the middle of June. Riley hit .292 with 16 homers and a .942 OPS over his past 57 regular-season games. This injury ended his bid for a fourth straight 30-homer season. Atlanta didn’t really have an internal replacement, so it signed former Tigers’ infielder Gio Urshela. The 32-year-old was released by Detroit on Sunday after hitting .243 with five homers and a .619 OPS over 92 games this season. He missed a month after suffering a hamstring strain on April 20.
Max Fried on the Hill
It’s lefty Fried, who has spent a fair amount of time on the IL himself this year, on the mound Wednesday. Fried (7-7, 3.62 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits and three walks while striking out five batters over 5.1 innings in a loss to San Francisco last Thursday. Fried gave up two runs in the second inning and another in the sixth. He did manage his longest outing over his three starts since returning from the IL on Aug. 4, and this was the first time he’s given up fewer than four earned runs during that span. It’s unclear if the forearm issue that landed him on the injured list is still bothering him, but Fried has a 7.90 ERA over the three starts since his activation.
Fried is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in two starts this year vs. the Phillies. He last faced them on July 5 in Atlanta and took the loss, allowing five runs and 11 hits over six innings. Trea Turner hit a pair of two-run homers off him.
^Max Fried’s stats against the Phillies (since 2022):
— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) August 21, 2024
9 G | 42.0 IP | 54 H | 17 BB | 24 ER | 41 K | 5.14 ERA | 1.69 WHIPpic.twitter.com/eJAjhvTkdn
Phillies at Braves Info
When: Wednesday, 7:20 PM ET
Where: Truist Park
Pitchers (away/home): Aaron Nola/Max Fried
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
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