Can Chicago Steal a Win at Fenway? Dissecting Cubs vs Red Sox MLB Game Betting Lines

Marquee MLB franchises the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox don’t face off very often, so it’s a big event when they open an interleague series against one another Friday night from Fenway Park in a terrific pitching matchup. The Sox are short favorites on the MLB odds

2024 MLB Expert Analysis Chicago at Boston | MyBookie MLB Week 4

How to Bet Cubs at Red Sox MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Shota Imanaga/Kutter Crawford
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Red Sox -119, Cubs -115 (total 4)

Why Bet on Chicago Cubs?

Chicago is without arguably its most important hitter in 2023 All-Star Cody Bellinger. He was placed on the injured list Wednesday with two fractured ribs. The former NL MVP crashed into the center-field wall during Tuesday’s game while tracking a fly ball hit by Houston‘s Yainer Diaz that went for a double and scored Kyle Tucker. He left the game an inning later. Bellinger, who was in the midst of a seven-game hitting streak, is batting .226 with five home runs and 17 RBIs. To take his roster spot, the Cubs called up top outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong.

Chicago is without another of its best hitters in Seiya Suzuki, who will miss at least a few more weeks with a right oblique strain. Suzuki has progressed to baseball activities, but Bellinger’s comeback schedule is less clear at the moment.

“I don’t really have a timetable for you,” Manager Craig Counsell said. “The doctors will come up with a plan and, like everything, he’s gotta get symptom-free first and then we’ll go from there.”

The Cubs won the free-agent bidding for Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga this offseason and it has paid major early dividends with the lefty at 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. He’s on the mound Friday.

Imanaga earned the win in Game 2 of last Saturday’s doubleheader against the Marlins. He struck out five and gave up three runs (two earned) on five hits and no walks across six innings. After giving up a home run to Josh Bell on a middle-middle fastball in the sixth inning, Imanaga struck out the next two batters to earn his second quality start of the season.

“I thought Shota pitched well,” manager Craig Counsell said. “He did a nice job, got us six innings in the second game with a doubleheader, which was great, and kept runs off the board. So, another good start. That’s four good starts for Shota.”

He finally surrendered his first earned runs of the season but he still pitched well and delivered his second quality start. Imanaga generated 17 swinging strikes on 92 pitches and didn’t issue a walk for the third time in four outings. He has a stellar 21:2 K:BB over 21.1 innings.

“Pitches I thought weren’t good definitely got hit, and ones I thought were good were fouled off or taken,” said Imanaga, who expressed relief at yielding his first earned run. “I’ve been freed from that spell, so can pitch more relaxed next game.”

The southpaw not only leads MLB with a .195 opponent on-base percentage, but he’s one of only two starters (minimum 20 innings pitched) to hold opponents to an on-base percentage under .200. And on the seldom occasions opponents do manage to get on base versus Imanaga, ensuing hitters have just two hits with runners in scoring position against him this season in nine chances (.222 average). His early-season control primarily comes down to his four-seam fastball, one of the filthiest pitches in the majors. Opposing batters are hitting just .115 off Imanaga’s four-seamer, which is the second-lowest mark for any pitch with a minimum of 50 plate appearances.

This will be the rookie’s first-ever outing vs. the Red Sox.

Chicago Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Why Bet on Boston Red Sox?

Boston is already without shortstop Trevor Story for the rest of the season and now will also miss first baseman Triston Casas for weeks with a fractured rib. With a dozen players already on the IL, the Red Sox can hardly afford to have one of their top hitters out for an extended period but they’ll have to make do. Casas had played in every Red Sox game until the time of the injury, hitting .244 with an .857 OPS, six homers and three doubles.

In Casas’ absence, Manager Alex Cora said Bobby Dalbec will see a majority of the playing time at first base. The Sox lead the AL and rank 2nd in MLB in first-pitch AVG (.424) and OPS (1.256), trailing only Atlanta (.482 AVG, 1.321 OPS). Overall, Boston has hit .258 with a .776 OPS on the road, compared to a .198 AVG and .620 OPS at home. The Sox are well above. 500 in day games this season but 7-8 at night.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Thursday that Ceddane Rafaela is the team’s everyday shortstop at this point. Rafaela’s defense both at shortstop and in center field is considered plus, and using him at shortstop with Story out for the season frees up the team’s outfield log jam. With Rafaela settling in at shortstop, Wilyer Abreu has become an everyday player in the outfield, making 10 straight starts. Abreu is red-hot at the plate right now as well.

Also Thursday, Cora said that infielder Vaughn Grissom (hamstring) is getting close to being activated but is unlikely to be back this weekend. Grissom was acquired this offseason from Atlanta but has yet to make his Boston regular-season debut. Grissom could be the club’s every-day second baseman when healthy.

It’s right-hander Kutter Crawford on the hill for Boston. Crawford (1-0) picked up the win last Saturday, allowing one run on seven hits and three walks over six innings in a 4-2 victory over the Pirates. He struck out six. The quality start was Crawford’s second of the season, but it was the fifth straight outing in which he gave up one run or less. Crawford generated a dominant 37 called or swinging strikes among his 100 pitches, and he’ll take a stellar 0.66 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 30:11 K:BB through 27.1 innings into Friday.

Crawford is the fourth Boston pitcher in the Live-Ball Era (1920-present) to post a sub-0.70 ERA in their first 5 starts of the season, joining Roger Clemens in 1991 (0.66), Dave Ferris in 1945 (0.60) and Lefty Grove in 1936 (0.21). In his last nine starts (beginning 9/12/23), Crawford has a 1.46 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and .160 opponent AVG (49.1 IP, 8 ER, 28 H, 1 HR, 17 BB, 58 SO). He has allowed zero homers in his last 43.2 innings pitched, the 2nd-longest active streak in MLB and 1st among starting pitchers.

Crawford has a five-pitch repertoire that is led by his cutter. He also utilizes a four-seamer, sweeper, splitter and knuckle curve. It has helped Crawford that the Red Sox have defined his role after using him in both relief and starting in 2022 and ’23.

“I think a lot of it is just kind of like, the thoughts [throughout the game],” Crawford said of his recent surge. “Having that confidence as the game goes on and your body starts getting a little more fatigued and all that, and just reassuring that I’m pounding the zone. Don’t try to start nibbling around the edges, because that’s when you get hurt.”

Crawford is 1-0 career against the Cubs with six shutout innings.

Boston Betting Odds to Win
MLB Money Line

Cubs vs Red Sox Expert Prediction

Red Sox 4, Cubs 3

MLB Conferences Winners

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