NBA Finals: Can Celtics Close it Out? Odds & Prediction (Boston Lead 3-0)

The Dallas Mavericks looked NBA championship worthy on their march through the Western Conference playoffs but now face a potential sweep at the hands of the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals with Game 4 on Friday night likely the Mavs’ final one at home this season – although they are slight favorites on the NBA odds.

Boston at Dallas, Game 4: 2024 NBA Expert Analysis

Boston Celtics Odds -113

The Celtics are now 5-0 vs. Dallas this season and have won every game by at least seven points following the 106-99 victory in Game 3 in Big D – Boston’s 10th straight playoff win, a franchise record. It is now 7-0 on the road in these playoffs.

Wednesday’s win was not without some worry as Boston’s a 21-point, fourth-quarter lead all but vanished within the span of five minutes, but the Celtics never trailed down the stretch. Jaylen Brown answered both Mavericks baskets that cut the C’s lead to one possession during the final six minutes, including a pull-up foul-line jumper at 1:01 remaining.

Through three games, Brown had been the player consistently driving Boston’s success. Jrue Holiday and Jayson Tatum have had their games, but Brown has been the MVP, and he is the -225 Finals MVP favorite. In Game 3, Brown had 30 points on 12-for-22 shooting, along with eight rebounds and eight assists. He became the first Celtics player since John Havlicek in 1968 to tally at least 30 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists in an NBA Finals game.

Tatum had 31 points, six rebounds and five assists in 42 minutes. The critics wanted more scoring from Tatum after his production was limited in the first two games of the NBA Finals, and that’s what they got in Game 3. He shot 6-of-14 from the field in the first half (finished 11-for-26) and was more aggressive offensively. The 31 points are the most Tatum had scored in a game since Boston’s Game 3 win over the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, when he dropped in 36.

Tatum and Brown became just the second Celtics tandem to score at least 30 points in the same NBA Finals game, joining John Havlicek (40 points) and Bailey Howell (30 points), who accomplished the feat in the 1968 championship-clinching game over the Lakers. They also became the sixth duo in Finals history to record at least 30 points, five rebounds, and five assists apiece.

Center Kristaps Porzingis was out with a “rare” leg injury and early reports were that he would miss the rest of the series, but it’s now apparently possible the former Maverick plays tonight. He hasn’t played in Dallas since being traded to Washington in February 2022. Porzingis was the first player on the court for the team’s shoot around on Wednesday, but less than two hours before the Game 3 tip-off, it was decided that he would be held out. The team’s medical staff just didn’t think he’d be ready for a game-like environment. Boston is 10-1 in these playoffs without the 7-foot-2 Latvian in the lineup.

When asked whether Boston’s commanding position in the series would impact whether Porzingis would play, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla said no.

“I think that’s a rather passive way to look at things,” Mazzulla said. “I think at the end of the day, we have to continue to do what we do. Kristaps has gotten better from yesterday to today. He’s fighting like hell to play, but it’s going to be up to us to protect him and to make sure that it’s in the best interest for him as a player and as a person. Going into what’s best for a player and a person has nothing to do with where we’re at from a basketball standpoint.”

With a win Friday, Boston would finish this postseason with a 16-2 record, which would be the second-best record of any team since the NBA went to four best-of-7 playoff rounds. Only the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors (16-1) were better, and these Celtics would join the 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers as the only teams to go 8-0 on the road. Boston also can become the first team to ever sweep a best-of-7 conference finals and NBA Finals in the same season.

Dallas Mavericks Odds -107

Perhaps if Mavs star Luka Doncic stopped complaining about fouls on nearly every play, the Mavericks might not have lost Game 3. The Mavs’ Game 3 rally fell short in Wednesday’s 106-99 loss after Doncic fouled out with 4:12 remaining, the first time in his career that he had fouled out during regulation. He was called for four fouls in the fourth quarter, including his last two within a 26-second span, and expressed displeasure with the officiating during his postgame media availability.

He shot 11-of-27 from the field in Game 3 to finish with 27 points, six rebounds and six assists but just one 3-pointer as Doncic shot 1-of-7 from three and was visibly frustrated with the officiating.

“He’s definitely got a bull’s-eye on his chest. He’s got to be able to guard and understand that we’re there to protect him and help him if he does get beat. … They are putting him in every pick-and-roll and iso. He’s got to be able to play the game where he can rest on offense and let others carry the load,” Mavs coach Jason Kidd said of Doncic’s foul-prone defense.

Doncic has struggled defensively while being mercilessly hunted by the Celtics. According to Second Spectrum, the Celtics are blowing by Doncic on 67.7% of their drives against him. That is the highest blow-by percentage allowed on drives by a single defender in a playoff series in the past 10 years, with a minimum of 10 drives defended per game.

“Go back to playing fun, Doncic said after the Mavericks’ film session at the American Airlines Center on Thursday about what to do different. “We talk about how we come back from [21] points in the fourth quarter in the Finals. We were having fun. We were defending. Furthermore, we were running. Our pace was great. Just taking good shots.”

Kyrie Irving was terrible in the first two games in Boston but was better in Game 3, shooting 13-of-28 from the field for 35 points, three rebounds, two assists, and four 3-pointers in 45 minutes. Irving had been 0-for-8 from deep entering Game 3. Three-point shooting is the biggest reason why the Celtics are up 3-0 as they have made 21 more so far in the series. Dallas has had three straight games with under 10 made 3-pointers for the first time since January 2021 (regular season or playoffs).

The Dallas bench had been dominated by Boston’s, but that Mavs unit got a boost in Game 3 from rookie center Dereck Lively II, who had 11 points and 13 rebounds. Lively and starter Daniel Gafford effectively have a timeshare at the center position, with Mavericks coach Jason Kidd tending to stick with the “hot hand.” The rookie was that player in Game 3. , recording a double-double and also accumulating two steals. As for Gafford, he finished with six points, three rebounds, one assist, and one blocked shot in 16 minutes.

No team has overcome a 3-0 series deficit in NBA playoff history (0-156), while four teams have forced Game 7 after trailing 3-0 in NBA playoff history. Boston did last year in the Eastern Conference Finals, but then was upset at home in Game 7 by Miami.

Bet Celtics at Mavericks NBA Odds

When: Friday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: American Airlines Center
TV: ABC
Stream: ESPN+
Radio: ESPN radio

The Celtics take a 3-0 series lead over the Mavs😳

Are the Mavs going to get swept?👀
BOS +3 / ML +125 / UNDER 213.5✅ pic.twitter.com/Y6jle1nKTT

— MyBookie – Bet With The Best (@MyBookie) June 13, 2024

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