No question the series of the weekend around the major leagues is the Houston Astros visiting the Boston Red Sox in a rematch of last year’s ALCS and quite possibly a preview of this October’s. The Red Sox aren’t home MLB Betting dogs often but are here.
Astros vs Red Sox MLB Spread & Game Analysis
- When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
- Where: Fenway Park
- Probable pitchers (away/home): Gerrit Cole/Rick Porcello
- TV: MLB Network
- Live Stream: MLB.tv
- Radio: 104.5 The Team
- MLB Spread: Houston Astros -1.5 (Total 9.5)
The teams last played on Oct. 18, 2018, when the Red Sox were 4-1 winners in Houston to clinch the ALCS in five games. Houston actually won the opener of that series 7-2 in Boston but then dropped the next four. The Red Sox became the first team to win four straight postseason games against a 100-win club since the 2004 Red Sox against both the Yankees and Cardinals.
Why Bet on Houston?Houston is running away with the AL West again and enters this game on an eight-game winning streak. The Astros crushed the Tigers in sweeping three in Detroit early this week, winning each by at least four runs. Alex Bregman hit his 14th homer of the season, a solo shot off Gregory Soto to open the scoring in the finale Wednesday.
Bregman pulled within two home runs of teammate George Springer, the American League leader. Springer currently leads the AL in OPS (1.081), HR (16), RBI (40), slugging pct. (.651) and runs scored (39). The Astros offense leads the Majors in runs (240), OPS (.868), batting average (.283), hits, OBP (.354) and slugging (.514) while ranking second in homers.
In the bullpen, Ryan Pressly is riding a franchise record scoreless streak of 37.0 innings, which spans his last 38 games and dates back to Aug. 15 of last season. The Astros are without former AL MVP Jose Altuve as he’s on the 10-day injured list with a left hamstring strain. Aledmys Diaz has been handling the bulk of the action at second base.
Gerrit Cole (4-4, 3.88) picked up the win in Saturday’s 11-4 rout of the Rangers, allowing one run on four hits over six innings while striking out a season-high 12. A Hunter Pence solo shot in the second inning was the only blemish on Cole’s line for the night. The right-hander has now fanned double-digit batters five times in nine starts to lead the majors in strikeouts, and he’ll take a 3.88 ERA and 86:15 K:BB through 55.2 innings into his next outing Friday.
Cole pitched in Boston in Game 2 of last year’s ALCS. He gave up a double to Mookie Betts — the first batter of the game — as Boston sent eight batters to the plate in the first and scored twice. Overall, Cole allowed four runs over six innings with five strikeouts and two walks.
- Runs: 5.57
- Hits: 9.61
- Walks: 3.70
- Strike Outs: 7.20
- Runs: 3.59
- Hits: 6.52
- Walks: 2.57
- Strike Outs: 9.61
Why Bet on Boston?
The Red Sox have won six of seven and split two home games vs. Colorado to open this week. During their current 14-5 stretch, which began on 4/24, the Red Sox lead the AL in runs per game (6.94) and lead the majors in OBP (.377).
The Sox won the finale vs. Colorado 6-5 in 10 innings Wednesday after blowing a late lead Tuesday – Chris Sale had 17 strikeouts in that loss, the most ever by a pitcher through seven innings. However, Manager Alex Cora took him out at 108 pitches rather than let Sale try to match or break the MLB record of 20 strikeouts.
With Dustin Pedroia out injured again and his career now officially in jeopardy, rookie Michael Chavis has played well in his place at second. On Wednesday, Chavis singled in Xander Bogaerts in the bottom of the 10th to give the Red Sox the win. After having a hitless week from May 5-11, Chavis has gone 7-for-15 with a homer and seven RBI in his last three games.
Rick Porcello (3-3, 5.15) picked up the win last Saturday against Seattle after allowing four runs on five hits and a walk in 6.2 frames. He struck out five batters and gave up one homer. All of the Mariners’ damage came in the first inning, courtesy of back-to-back doubles by Daniel Vogelbach and Domingo Santana and a two-run homer by Jay Bruce. The only batter to reach base over the next 5.2 frames did so on an error, and the Red Sox’s eight-run third inning gave Porcello an easy win.
The Red Sox have won each of Porcello’s last 5 starts. In those 5 games, is 3-0 with a 3.06 ERA and .200 opponent average (32.1 IP, 11 ER, 24 H).
Porcello started Game 4 of last year’s ALCS in Houston and wasn’t great, allowing seven hits and four runs over four innings. He wouldn’t factor in the decision as Boston rallied to win 8-6. In seven career starts vs. the Astros (including the postseason), Porcello is 2-1 with a 5.59 ERA.
- Runs: 5.35
- Hits: 8.65
- Walks: 4.33
- Strike Outs: 8.02
- Runs: 4.72
- Hits: 7.95
- Walks: 3.21
- Strike Outs: 10.14
Astros vs Red Sox MLB Betting Trends
- Astros are 5-1 in Cole’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series
- Red Sox are 5-1 in Porcello’s last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record
- Astros are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games
- Red Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the American League
- The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston’s last 6 games at home
Expert Final Score Prediction for Astros vs Red Sox
Houston Astros 7 – Boston Red Sox 6