Yankees vs. Cubs: Expert Picks, Analysis, and Score Prediction

There’s one matinée baseball game on a busy Friday, and it features two of the sport’s most popular franchises, as the AL East-contending New York Yankees visit the NL wild-card hopeful Chicago Cubs.

The Yanks are short favorites on the MLB odds.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Yankees -148, Cubs +121 (total 8)
Expert Prediction: Yankees 5, Cubs 4

Why Bet on New York?

The Yankees have fallen a half-game behind Baltimore in the AL East after New York lost back-to-back games at Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday at Texas. Closer Clay Holmes allowed a walk-off grand slam in Tuesday’s loss and has lost that closing role at least solo. Holmes’ 11 blown saves — which have come in 40 chances — are the most since Dave Righetti had 13 in 1987, tying the Yankees record set by Goose Gossage in 1983. Manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday the club will consider several options, Holmes included, going forward.

“In the short term, we’ll kind of just get a little creative with it,” Boone said before the series finale against the Rangers, a 10-6 loss for New York on Wednesday. “I feel like he’s throwing the ball really well in a lot of ways. Last night it was certainly a little off and they got to him. But the reality is he’s really not that far off from being the dominant guy we know he can be.”

Consecutive Losses

Wednesday’s loss marked the sixth defeat in the last eight games for the Yankees, as they’ve now lost consecutive series to the Nationals, Cardinals, and Rangers. Asked if there had been a dip in confidence, Aaron Judge said: “Not at all. Not at all. We’ve still got a long month ahead of us, a big series coming up here in Chicago. That’s all you can really do is look forward. You can’t sit and look back at past games, ’cause those will just keep building, so it’s just about moving forward.”

Aaron Judge

Judge remains stuck on 51 homers, two years after setting an American League record with 62. Judge is now on pace for 59 dingers but hasn’t gone yard since Aug. 25. If Judge gets to 60, he would be the third player with multiple 60-homer seasons, joining Sammy Sosa (three) and Mark McGwire (two).

Juan Soto

He was the only bright spot from Wednesday’s loss, continuing his stellar season by going 3-for-3 with a two-run home run, a double and a walk. Soto had gone eight games without a homer entering Wednesday, his longest drought since June 4-14. The AL MVP candidate is up to 38 homers, 98 RBI, 112 runs scored, five stolen bases and 28 doubles while slashing .295/.423/.592 through 136 contests.

Anthony Volpe

Meanwhile, with 32 career home runs and now 50 career stolen bases, the shortstop is the first Yankee in franchise history and the 11th player in MLB history to hit at least 30HR and record at least 50SB over his first two big-league seasons.

Luis Gil

It’s AL Rookie of the Year candidate (12-6, 3.39 ERA) on the mound Friday. He has missed the last two weeks with lower-back discomfort but was activated Thursday. Gil went just 3.2 innings but threw 80 pitches in his lone rehab start, so he is mostly stretched out. It marked Gil’s first game action since he exited an Aug. 20 start against Cleveland after three-plus innings with lower back discomfort. Gil has allowed 3-hits-or-fewer in 13 of his 24 starts this year, holding opponents to a .185/.298/.325 (83-for-449) slash line. Gil has never faced the Cubs.

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Betting Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Why Bet on Chicago?

The Cubs still have a shot at the NL’s final wild-card spot, but not a great one, especially after losing two of three at home to start this week, although the Cubs took the finale 12-0 on Wednesday in a combined no-hitter. Shota Imanaga threw the first seven no-hit innings but was pulled after 95 pitches. Nate Pearson and Porter Hodge each followed with a perfect inning to finish the Cubs’ first no-hitter at Wrigley Field since 1972.

Chicago ended a streak of 4,147 regular and postseason games at Wrigley Field without a no-hitter, the second-longest for a team in a single ballpark behind Pittsburgh. The Pirates never had a no-hitter in 4,773 games at Forbes Field from 1909-70.

Pete Crow-Amstrong

The Rookie outfielder kept rolling at the plate Wednesday as he was 3-for-4 with a double, a solo home run, an additional run scored and three total RBIs. At the end of July, Crow-Armstrong was batting just .194 with three home runs. In 30 games since then, he is batting .327 with five homers. Shortstop Dansby Swanson went 3-for-5 with a double, a home run, an additional run scored and three Rbis in the win. He’s not having a great year overall, but over his last 10 games, Swansson is batting .385 with four home runs, 14 runs scored and 15 RBIs.

Since being selected from Triple-A Iowa July 26, Christian Bethancourt has hit .382 (13-for-34) with nine runs scored and 15 RBI in his 13 games (10 starts) with the Cubs. Among all major league catchers since Aug. 26, Bethancourt is tied for the lead in SLG (.750) and ranks second with a 1.167 OPS.

Since July 1, the Cubs won the fifth-highest fielding percentage in the majors (.989). In that same span, the Cubs won the fifth-fewest errors in the majors with 21. On the season as a whole, Chicago’s .986 fielding percentage is the seventh-highest in the majors. Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Crow-Armstrong each rank above the 90th percentile in outs above average (OAA). Swanson’s 15 outs above average (OAA) is in the 99th percentile and ranks seventh among all major league players.

Jordan Wicks

It’s lefty scheduled on the mound Friday. Wicks (2-2, 3.82 ERA) pitched five innings of one-run ball to pick up the win last Sunday against Washington, allowing four hits and zero walks while striking out zero. Making his first start since June 14, Wicks breezed through the Nationals lineup, using just 69 pitches to get through five frames. Things got shaky for Wicks in the second inning when he allowed the bases to be loaded with zero out, but he induced a double play and a fly out to limit the damage to one run. Wicks became the fourth Cubs pitcher to record no strikeouts or walks in five-plus innings pitched since 2000 — the last being Alec Mills on July 29, 2021.

“It helped for sure just to get through that [second] inning. Gave us three more good innings and it was a really good start,” Manager Craig Counsell said.

The 25-year-old Wicks landed on the 60-day IL in June with an oblique strain after pitching to a 4.18 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 32:10 K:BB in 28 innings (six starts) before the injury. Wicks has never faced the Yankees.

Jordan Wicks goes 5 in his 1st start since June! pic.twitter.com/ycg1GbY7Ld
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) September 1, 2024

New York at Chicago Info

When: Friday, 2:20 PM ET
Where: Wrigley Field
Pitchers (away/home): Luis Gil/Jordan Wicks
TV: MLB Network; MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/