Cubs vs Guardians Score Prediction, Picks & Expert Analysis

A rematch series of the 2016 Fall Classic – has it really been that long? – concludes on Wednesday night when the Chicago Cubs visit the Cleveland Guardians, who are short favorites on the MLB odds with new addition Alex Cobb scheduled on the mound.

Chicago Cubs at Cleveland: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

Opening MLB Lines: Guardians -125, Cubs +115 (total 8.5)
Score Prediction: Guardians 5, Cubs 4

Chicago Cubs

Cubs rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong leads MLB rookies and all Cubs hitters with six triples this season. He is tied for the ninth-most triples in the majors and fifth in the N.L. Since July 30, the Cubs are tied with the Diamondbacks for the most triples in the majors. Dating back to May 27, the Cubs lead all MLB teams with an 87.0% stolen base percentage. Crow-Armstrong is 23-for-23 in stolen base attempts, ranking third among MLB rookies in steals.

Ian Happ

Outfielder Happ hit his 20th homer on Monday, marking his second consecutive 20-homer season and the fourth of his career. Happ is now the 18th player in Cubs history with four or more 20-homer seasons. Billy Williams is at the top of that list with 13 seasons.

Dansby Swanson

Shortstop Swanson isn’t having a very good year at the plate, but has a 79-game errorless streak. Swanson’s streak began on May 1, and since that date, there have only been two infielders in the majors to not commit an error. Swanson is in the 99th percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA) with 14.

Since July 27, the Cubs have one of the five best records in baseball. During that span, the Cubs are hitting .269 (9th in MLB), with a .473 SLG (6th in MLB) and .797 OPS (9th in MLB) while sitting 8th in MLB averaging 5.64 runs per game. Prior to July 27, the Cubs were 26th in MLB with a .232 batting average, 24th in MLB with a .373 SLG, 24th in MLB with a .683 OPS and were averaging 4.04 runs per game — good for 25th in MLB.

Jameson Taillon on the Hill

It’s veteran Taillon on the mound for the Cubs, who did shop him around last month’s trade deadline and could again this winter. Taillon (8-6, 3.50 ERA) picked up the win last Friday, allowing up five runs on nine hits over five innings in a 7-6 victory over the White Sox. He struck out four without walking a batter. The Cubs staked Taillon to a 7-0 lead through the first three innings, but the right-hander nearly gave it back as he served up homers to Andrew Vaughn in the fourth and Andrew Benintendi in the fifth.

Taillon has allowed five homers in his last three starts, stumbling to a 7.04 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over that stretch, despite a 12:1 K:BB in 15.1 innings. Taillon only has had four terrible starts all season, one against the Reds in Cincinnati (we get that), one against the Braves in Atlanta (both understandable), and then two against the White Sox – which doesn’t make sense.

Taillon hasn’t faced Cleveland this year and is 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in four career appearances against the Guardians, including 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA at Progressive Field. He allowed six runs (four earned) in his last start vs. Cleveland, July 2, 2023 at Wrigley Field.

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Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland has gotten an offensive boost of late from rookie outfielder Jhonkensy Noel. Nicknamed “Big Christmas,” he became the first Cleveland player with eight or more homers in his first 31 career games since Russell Branyan (1998-2000).

Sam Hentges

The Guardians have MLB’s best bullpen, but might be without a fairly important piece out there the rest of the season in lefty Hentges. He has been out since July 12 with left shoulder inflammation. Hentges began his rehab assignment, but once he started to experience discomfort in the area again, he stopped pitching in games and is now seeking a second opinion regarding how to proceed. He has 3.04 ERA over 23 2/3 innings (25 appearances) this year.

Cleveland has 43 games this season in which the bullpen threw at least three scoreless innings, by far the most in the majors. Closer Emmanuel Clase leads MLB with a 0.68 ERA and the AL with 36 saves.

Alex Cobb on the Mound

Ahead of last month’s trade deadline, the Guardians acquired veteran Cobb from San Francisco in exchange for a pitching prospect and player to be named later. The right-hander went 7-7 with a 3.87 ERA (65ER/151.1IP) in 28 starts for the Giants in 2023, garnering his first All-Star selection.

Cobb has been on the Injured List for much of the 2024 season due to left hip surgery. He recently made his second start with Cleveland, taking a loss in a game against the Twins. He gave up five runs (four earned) on nine hits and a walk in 4.2 innings, striking out one. Cobb struggled early on, allowing runs in the first two innings and a three-run homer in the fifth.

Cobb generated just three swings and misses on 82 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 23 percent. His sinker averaged 94.5 mph in the contest, which was down 0.8 mph from where he saw him during the 2023 season.

Cobb is 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts vs. the Cubs.

Bet Cubs at Guardians MLB Odds

When: Wednesday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field
Pitchers (away/home): Jameson Taillon/Alex Cobb
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/