New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Expert Picks, Prediction

The New York Yankees are pushing toward the AL East title, while the Seattle Mariners have work to do simply to earn a wild-card spot.

They meet in the Pacific Northwest to open a big series on Tuesday night, with the Yanks as very short favorites on the MLB odds behind AL Rookie of the Year candidate Lui Gil.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Yankees -125, Mariners -106 (total 7.5)
Expert Prediction: Yankees 4, Mariners 3

Why Bet on New York?

Barring a collapse, the Yankees (87-63) are winning the AL East, as they are three up on second-place Baltimore. New York is also neck-and-neck with Cleveland for the AL’s top seed. The Bombers have won four of five following a 5-2 home victory over Boston on Sunday to close the season series vs. the Red Sox.

Aaron Judge

AL MVP lock went 1-for-2 with a two-run home run, two walks and a stolen base. The blast came off Judge’s bat at 112.1 mph and rattled the glass toward the right side of the center-field restaurant at Yankee Stadium, landing on the netting over Mariano Rivera’s retired number.

Off the batter's eye for HR No. 53 💪@TheJudge44 👨‍⚖️ pic.twitter.com/xfaO4SOLrE
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 15, 2024

“He’s different,” said reliever Tommy Kahnle, who recorded the last two outs on a double play for his first save of the season. “It’s enjoyable to watch him every day. We kind of miss it [in the bullpen] because when he hits it to left field, we don’t see the landing spot.”

After going 16 games without a homer, Judge has now hit two over the past three games to reach 53 on the season. Judge also added his ninth stolen base, marking the second time this year he’s gone yard and swiped a bag in the same game. While he’s fallen off the pace to reach 60 home runs, all it will take is one of his patented hot streaks to reach that mark for the second time in his career. Judge is slashing .321/.453/.687 with 132 RBIs and 112 runs. Ther RBIs are a career high. It made him one of four Yankees in the past 63 years (since 1962) to record that many RBIs in a season, joining Don Mattingly (145 in 1985), Tino Martinez (141 in 1997) and Alex Rodriguez (156 in 2007).

Judge is also up to 122 walks, which is five shy of his career-high total from 2017. The only other major-leaguer within 20 walks of him is teammate Juan Soto, who has 119 as he contends to lead the majors in the category for a fourth straight year.

Gleyber Torres

Torres went 2-for-5 with a solo home run and an additional run scored Sunday. Torres recorded his fifth multi-hit game this month while clubbing his 14th blast of the season. He’s collected at least one hit in 13 of 14 September games, batting 20-for-59 (.339) with two homers, nine RBI and 11 runs scored.

“We can do something special,” Torres said of taking the division title. “We’re really focused, everybody is on the same page right now. Let’s see after the West Coast series where we are.”

Luis Gil

It’s righty and AL Rookie of the Year favorite on the mound Tuesday. Gil (13-6) allowed one run on five hits and two walks while striking out five batters over five innings in a no-decision against Kansas City last Wednesday. Gil did well, but he needed 97 pitches to get through five innings and thus didn’t last long enough to pick up a second straight quality start.

The 26-year-old has looked good since returning from a stay on the 15-day injured list, allowing just one run while posting a 12:4 K:BB over 11 innings. That’s great news for the Yankees as the postseason looms, as Gil has been one of the team’s best starters this year with a 3.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 156:70 K:BB over 135.2 frames. He has a 10.35 K/9 rate, which ranks 12th among pitchers with at least 130 innings.

Gil has allowed three-hits-or-fewer in 14 of his 26 starts this year, holding opponents to a .182/.293/.322 (89-for-488) slash line. He has 3R-or-fewer in 21 of his 26 starts, 2R-or-fewer in 17 of his starts and one-or-zero runs in 16 of his starts (including six scoreless starts). His 16 starts of one-or-zero runs allowed are tied with Russ Ford (16 starts in 1910) for the most by a Yankees’ rookie pitcher in franchise history.

On May 23 at Yankee Stadium, Gil held Seattle to one hit with eight strikeouts over 6 1/3 shutout innings while picking up a win. Gil did walk two, but he was mostly dominant, with the only hit being a J.P. Crawford single in the fourth.

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Betting Lines provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Why Bet on Seattle?

Seattle (77-73) is probably out of luck for a wild-card spot unless the Mariners only lose a couple more games the rest of the way. The team fired manager Scott Servais last month and has played a little better under Dan Wilson. The M’s enter on a three-game winning streak after crushing Texas 7-0 on Sunday. It was the first time the Mariners faced the minimum of 27 batters in a game since Felix Hernandez’s perfect game in 2012.

Run Batted In

Justin Turner, Turner, Victor Robles and Julio Rodríguez had RBI for the Mariners, who had 14 hits. With his solo homer, Randy Arozarena became the first major league player to start his career with 20 homers and 20 stolen bases in each of his first four seasons. He’s one of two active players with four 20/20 seasons in a row, along with Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez. The M’s have won eight of their last 11 and are on a bit of a tear with the postseason on the line.

Victor Robles

Sunday wasn’t all positive as Robles, the team’s center fielder and leadoff hitter, exited to begin the seventh inning with a minor leg injury that Wilson said is unrelated to the left hip flexor issue that Robles was dealing with earlier this summer. The Mariners need him healthy because he’s been arguably their best position player since he signed with Seattle in early June, aside from perhaps Cal Raleigh. Over the past month, Robles has slashed .421/.489/.566 (1.055 OPS) in 91 plate appearances.

Bryan Woo

It’s stellar young righty on the mound Tuesday. Woo (8-2, 2.38 ERA) picked up the win over the Padres last Wednesday, allowing two runs on two hits and one walk over 6.2 innings while striking out five. Woo had a no-hitter going through the first six frames before giving up a solo homer to Fernando Tatis with one out in the seventh. Woo would then be relieved by Troy Taylor with two outs in the inning but would still come away with his third win in his last four decisions. Bryan has also produced quality starts in six of his last eight outings, while posting a robust 45:4 K:BB over that stretch.

WOOnderful. pic.twitter.com/wCcfYL6rO4
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 12, 2024

Through his 19 starts this season, the 24-year-old has thrown a strike on 73.8% of his first pitches. Over a full season, that’s the highest first-pitch strike rate of any MLB pitcher — starter or reliever — in FanGraphs’ database, going back to 2002.

Woo won at Yankee Stadium on April 21, throwing six shutout innings with seven strikeouts and just two hits allowed.

New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners Info

When: Tuesday, 9:40 PM ET
Where: T-Mobile Park
Pitchers (away/home): Luis Gil/Bryan Woo
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/