Bellozo vs. Skenes: Marlins vs. Pirates – Expert Analysis and Picks

Neither the Marlins nor the Pirates are going to finish with a winning record this season but their series opener on Monday from PNC Park is pretty intriguing because it features two good-looking rookie pitchers in Valente Bellozo for Miami and future Cy Young winner Paul Skenes for Pittsburgh, which is a heavy favorite on the MLB odds.

Miami at Pittsburgh: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

Miami Marlins +198

The Marlins have been hit hard by injuries this year, especially in the rotation and that unit took another hit over the weekend when promising young Max Meyer was placed on the 15-day IL with right shoulder bursitis – one of 11 roster moves the Marlins made Saturday alone. Meyer was scheduled to start Sunday’s finale against the Phillies. Another key arm that will be sidelined for at least 15 days is right-hander Calvin Faucher, who has recorded six saves while taking over closer duties since the trade deadline.

Calvin Faucher

Though Faucher experienced a right shoulder impingement during Spring Training, Manager Skip Schumaker said it’s “nothing like” then. The 28-year-old Faucher was feeling it in the bullpen, and the more he threw, the better he felt and his velocity would tick up. Afterward, however, Faucher wouldn’t recover as well. In Faucher’s absence, Schumaker will likely play matchups at closer with right-handers Jesus Tinoco, Declan Cronin and Anthony Bender, who returned from a right shoulder impingement on Saturday. Schumaker went on to call Tinoco “our best guy” right now.

Javier Sanoja

He made his MLB debut over the weekend, and the 22-year-old became the youngest player to suit up for Miami this season. He became the 68th different player to be used by Miami overall (39 pitchers, 29 position players), extending the club record that was previously set in 2020. The all-time record for players used in a season is 69, done by Chicago (NL) during the 2021 season. Seattle holds the record for most pitchers used in a season with 42 in 2019.

Declan Cronin

The reliever has tossed 64.0 consecutive innings since the beginning of this season without allowing a home run, marking the longest streak in club history and also the longest by a Marlins’ reliever at any point in a season. Cronin’s streak is the longest by a reliever in MLB to begin a season since 2014, when Wade Davis (72.0 IP), Kelvin Herrera (70.0 IP), and Jake McGee (67.0 IP) each achieved the feat (Elias).

Valente Bellozo

It’s rookie righty on the mound Monday. Bellozo (2-2) came away with a no-decision in last Wednesday’s 4-3 extra-inning win over the Nationals, allowing three hits and two walks over six scoreless innings. He struck out one. Bellozo was far from dominant, producing only seven swinging strikes among his 85 pitches, but Bellozo minimized any hard contact and left the mound with the Marlins clinging to a 1-0 lead.

The quality start was his second in nine big-league outings, and it was a strong bounce-back effort after he’s been tagged for 12 runs (11 earned) over his last 8.2 innings. Bellozo will carry a 3.78 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 33:17 K:BB through 47.2 frames into this one. This will be his first look at Pittsburgh.

Bellozo is holding left-handed batters to a .224 AVG (19×85) with a .643 OPS this season, and right-handed batters to a .258 AVG (25×97) with a .907 OPS. He owns a 3.42 ERA (10 ER/26.1 IP) in 4 road games, compared to a 4.22 ERA (10 ER/21.1 IP) in 4 home contests.

Pittsburgh Pirates -250

This will be the first meeting between the teams since the Pirates swept the 2024 season-opening series at Miami from March 28-31. The four-game sweep marked the 14th time since 1900 that the Bucs began the season 4-0.

Henry Davis, a former No. 1 overall pick, was placed on the 10-day injured list Sunday, retroactive to Sept. 5, due to left-hand inflammation. It’s unclear when exactly Davis suffered the injury, but he hasn’t seen the field since going 0-for-3 with a strikeout Wednesday against the Cubs. Joey Bart and Yasmani Grandal will continue to split catching duties for the Pirates. To take Davis’ roster spot, the Pirates selected the contract of INF/OF Billy Cook from Triple-A Indianapolis. The 25-year-old posted an .843 OPS in the minors this year, with 17 homers and 25 stolen bases.

Oneil Cruz

The young star, who has been moved from shortstop to center field, got Sunday’s series finale vs. Washington off from the starting lineup. He had started 22 straight games, during which he batted .313 with nine extra-base hits, nine steals, 10 RBI and nine runs. Cruz has been successful in each of his last 19 attempts since being caught for the only time on April 22.

Nate McLouth

The last Pirate to steal at least 19 consecutive bases without being caught in a single season is McLouth (21 straight) from May 2 to September 28, 2008. Pittsburgh’s 86.5 percent stolen-base success rate leads MLB. Since 1951, the only seasons in which Pittsburgh led MLB in that category are 1979 and 1997.

Dennis Santana

Since August 11, the reliever has issued two hits in 44 at-bats. Since June 18, Santana has recorded a 1.35 ERA (33.1ip/5er). That’s the sixth-lowest ERA among relievers in MLB with at least 32.0 innings of work behind Raisel Iglesias (0.00), A.J. Puk (0.28), Emmanuel Clase (0.56), Tanner Scott (1.07) and Ryan Walker (1.26).

Paul Skenes

It’s rookie ace on the mound Monday. Skenes (9-2) earned the win last Tuesday over the Cubs, allowing four hits and four walks while striking out six over five shutout innings. Skenes’ control was a little shaky — he walked four batters for the second time in his last four starts. His pitch count was back up to 100 (62 strikes), though that’s not encouraging considering he completed just five frames.

Paul leaned more on his change up than usual vs. the Cubs, and he threw it more than any other start this season (19 percent of the time). His previous high was 10.4 percent on June 17 against the Reds. But Paul Skenes only threw 10 change ups in that outing, compared to 19 on Tuesday. Skenes threw his four-seamer 46 percent of the time. He threw his splinker 14 percent, his lowest in a start in his career. His previous low for that pitch was 17.3 percent on July 23 against the Cardinals.

The 22-year-old is now at a 2.13 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 142:30 K:BB through 114 innings over 19 starts this season. He are on a workload limit, but the Pirates have not revealed how many innings he’ll finish with this year. Skenes has posted the lowest ERA (2.13) in all of MLB since making his debut on May 11.

His 142 strikeouts are tied for the most in a single season by a Pirates rookie, along with Cy Blanton in 1935. He ranks second among National League rookies with those 142 strikeouts. He and Jared Jones are the second rookie duo in Pirates history with at least 100 strikeouts. The other was in 1993 when Steve Cooke had 132 strikeouts while Paul Wagner had 114 punch outs. Paul is in line for four more starts this year if not shut down. He has never faced Miami.

“That’s one of the biggest things about this year is just finishing the year and making all my starts, that kind of thing,” Skenes said. “It’s definitely a win just to get used to playing through the season. It’s going to set me up so much better for next season.”

With his 142nd strikeout this season, Paul Skenes has tied the franchise record for strikeouts by a rookie since 1900. pic.twitter.com/972smhqD9o

— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) September 4, 2024

Marlins at Pirates Info

When: Monday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: PNC Park
Pitchers (away/home): Valente Bellozo/Paul Skenes
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/

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