Reds vs Pirates Odds, Score Prediction & Expert Analysis

It’s already a major event across baseball whenever Pittsburgh Pirates rookie right-hander Paul Skenes takes the mound as the former No. 1 overall pick looks like a future Cy Young Award winner and potential all-time great.

Skenes takes the hill as a solid favorite on the MLB odds Monday vs. Cincinnati.

MLB Odds: Pirates -210, Reds +190 (total 8)
Score Prediction: Pirates 4, Reds 3

Cincinnati Reds Betting Lines +161

Reds infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand is considering season-ending surgery to repair ligament damage in his right wrist. Encarnacion-Strand initially went on the 10-day injured list in early May with a fracture in the wrist, but subsequent testing has apparently shown ligament damage. Encarnacion-Strand slashed only .190/.220/.293 with two home runs in 29 games before getting hurt.

Star shortstop Elly De La Cruz leads the majors with 35 stolen bases as of Sunday. His 70 stolen bases through his first 168 games are the second-most ever by a Reds player to begin his career (Billy Hamilton, 75 steals in 168). He is on pace to steal 81 bases, which would be tied with the Cardinals’ Vince Coleman (1988) for second-most in a season in that span behind the Yankees’ Rickey Henderson, who stole 93 bases in 1988. The Reds are on pace to steal 236 bases, which would rank fifth in club history.

Outfielder TJ Friedl has gone 767 consecutive plate appearances without grounding into a double play, It’s the longest-such streak among all Reds batters since 1933 (when GIDPs were first officially tracked in the NL).

Reliever Fernando Cruz ranks second among all MLB relievers with 55 strikeouts and is on pace for 127 strikeouts, which would rank third-most by a Reds reliever since 1901 (Rob Dibble 2x, 141k in 1989 & 136k in 1990). Since the start of 2023, Cruz has 45 appearances in which he struck out 2 or more batters.

It’s rookie righty Carson Spiers (0-0) on the mound Monday. Spiers was called up from Triple-A Louisville last Sunday (June 9) and was immediately put to work in long relief later that day in the Reds’ series finale against the Cubs. With starter Frankie Montas getting chased from the game midway through the top of the second, Spiers stepped in and struck out seven batters over 5.2 shutout innings while allowing just six baserunners. He scattered four hits in what was the longest outing of his MLB career. Spiers’ outing lowered his ERA to 2.33 in 19 1/3 big-league innings this season, with 15 strikeouts to just four walks.

“What he’s showing, he can pitch in any spot,” manager David Bell said, praising Spiers’ versatility as a starter or reliever. “Really good action on his pitches. Great mix of pitches — four or five different pitches that he can throw for strikes, which is so important. And they all have excellent movement on them. He’s showing the kind of stuff that will have success here. We know that, but for him to have that success here, I think, has been really important.”

Prior to the call-up, Spiers had already been stretched out as a starter at Louisville and compiled a 2.51 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 46.2 innings, and on the heels of his impressive showing out of the bullpen, he’ll now get a chance to fill the opening in the big-league rotation that was created by Graham Ashcraft’s recent demotion. Spiers made 2 starts for the Reds last season (9/3 vs the Cubs & 9/9 vs. the Cardinals, and went seven combined innings, allowing seven runs and 10 hits.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Lines -200

Monitor the status of good-looking young Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz as he has been dealing with left ankle soreness. He missed two games over the weekend but was in there Sunday. Cruz hammers baseballs like few others in terms of exit velocity, yet his traditional slash line of .248/.300/.432 is ordinary. Cruz also strikes out in nearly 33% of his at-bats, putting him in the top 5% across baseball. The same applies to his swing-and-miss whiff rate (33.5%).

On Saturday, the team placed catcher/outfielder Henry Davis on the 7-day concussion injured list. The 24-year-old slugger suffered the injury during Friday night’s contest against the Rockies. Even after the mandatory seven days on the injured list, he’ll still need to pass through the concussion protocol before he’s able to return.

The timing of Davis’ concussion couldn’t be more inopportune for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft. Davis, who is hitting .153 this season, smacked his first home run of the year in a losing effort last Wednesday, and Joey Bart is out with a left thumb injury. Rather than continue to rack up at-bats since being recalled from Triple-A with his swing back in a familiar spot, Davis will sit for the foreseeable future. Jason Delay was recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis in a corresponding move on Saturday to share the catching duties with Yasmani Grandal for the immediate future.

Outfielder and former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen hit his team-leading 10th home run Saturday. The 37-year-old McCutchen is the 13th player all-time to hit 10-plus home runs in each of his first 16 seasons along with Robinson Cano, Albert Pujols, Jeff Kent, Barry Bonds, Harold Baines, Eddie Murray, Carl Yastrzemski, Willie McCovey, Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Eddie Matthews and Mickey Mantle.

It’s stellar rookie right-hander Paul Skenes (3-0) on the mound Monday. Skenes didn’t factor into the decision last Tuesday against St. Louis, allowing five hits and no walks across 6.1 scoreless innings. He struck out eight. Skenes was locked into a pitchers’ duel with Miles Mikolas, as the first run of the game didn’t come across until the ninth inning, leaving both starters with no-decisions. was excellent once again, punching out seven or more batters for the fifth time in six starts while issuing no walks for the first time all year.

Through 33.1 innings, Skenes has struck out 46 batters and owns a 2.43 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. The Pirates have gone 5-1 in his first six starts. He is averaging 12.42 strikeouts per 9.0 innings pitched and has received an average of 9.18 runs of support. His 46 strikeouts since making his big league debut on 5/11 are the ninth-most in MLB.

Skenes has some of the best stuff of any prospect in recent memory. His fastball can ramp up to 102 mph. His slider gets above average spin and horizontal movement. Through his first six starts, batters are hitting just .073 (3-for-41) against his “splinker” with a dozen strikeouts. While all of Skenes’ offerings have a whiff rate of at least 20%, it’s the splinker that gets the most swings and misses, registering at a 33.7% whiff rate and a 30% putaway rate with two strikes.

“I still think of it as a sinker,” Skenes said. “It’s funny to see guys swing at fastballs in the dirt.”

The Pirates have won eight games in their last at-bat (won 10 in all of 2023). They have gone 25-3 (.893 winning percentage) when outhitting their opponents this season. Pittsburgh is hitting .276 with runners in scoring position this month, which ranks 10th in MLB.

Bet Reds at Pirates MLB Odds

When: Monday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: PNC Park
Pitchers (away/home): Carson Spiers/Paul Skenes
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream/gameday audio: Fox Sports Live; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/