MLB Odds & Expert Picks: Tigers vs. Royals: AL Wild-Card Race

A huge series in the AL wild-card race continues on Wednesday night as AL Cy Young betting favorite Tarik Skubal looks to essentially clinch the award with a strong outing as Skubal’s Detroit Tigers visit the Kansas City Royals.

The Tigers are favored on the MLB odds.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Tigers -150, Royals +122 (total 8)
Expert Prediction: Tigers 4, Royals 3

Why Bet on Detroit?

Since Aug. 11, Detroit has the best record in the majors. Over that stretch, Detroit’s an MLB-best 2.57 ERA while the Tigers’ offense is averaging 4.73 runs per game, which ranks fourth in the American League. Outfielder Matt Vierling has 32 multi-hit games on the season, which is the second-highest total on the team, trailing only Colt Keith’s 34 multi-hit games. Vierling has established career highs in nearly every offensive category this season, including doubles (26), home runs (16) and RBI (55).

Jason Foley

Tigers closer Foley is on a roll right now after getting the save in Monday’s win over the Royals. Foley was called upon to protect a 7-6 lead in the ninth frame and did so on 13 pitches. The 28-year-old has converted nine straight saves, including five in nine September appearances. On the season, he is 24-for-27 in save opportunities with a 3.02 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 43:19 K:BB across 56.2 innings.

Detroit has won 10 of its last 12 games decided by one run as of Tuesday. The Tiger’s 52 one-run games are the most they’ve played in a season since also playing 52 in 2018.

Tarik Skubal

It’s ace lefty and AL Cy Young heavy favorite on the mound. Skubal (16-4, 2.50 ERA) took a no-decision after pitching six innings of one-run ball against the Rockies last Thursday. Skubal took a soft liner off his right wrist and the base of his glove while making a catch in the sixth and got checked by the trainer. He stayed in, but it might have played a role in him not coming back out for the seventh at 84 pitches. The Tigers went on to blow a one-run lead in the seventh and lose the game in the ninth. Skubal allowed four hits, walked none and struck out six in a rather stress-free outing. The lone run came on Jordan Beck’s homer.

Tarik Skubal, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/9Fn16QTtmK
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 12, 2024

“I didn’t really execute pitches at a great clip,” Skubal said. “Not a lot of first-pitch strikes, a lot of misfires. I’ve gotta get back to what makes me a good pitcher, and what I did today, I don’t think is what makes me a good pitcher. Too many misfires in there. But yeah, I kept us in the game.”

All the tests checked out on Skubal’s bruised non-throwing hand, but he will end up getting an extra day of rest in between his starts. The Tigers could squeeze three more starts total out of Skubal if need be, with him staying on normal rest to start Sept. 24 at home against Tampa Bay and then working the final day of the regular season against the White Sox should Detroit still be playing for a wild-card spot.

Skubal struggles against the Royals, especially at Kauffman Stadium. The 27-year-old has allowed 16 runs (15 earned runs) across 15 innings in his last three starts against the Royals at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, all losses for the Tigers.

“There are certain matchups that are harder than others, but when we bring Tarik into this stadium, we expect him to pitch well, and he can beat this team,” Manager AJ Hinch said. “They’re very talented. They make a ton of contact. They have speed. Furthermore, they put pressure on you. They’re not afraid to swing early. They don’t swing and miss a ton. They’re a challenge for anybody. But I have no fear of putting Tarik Skubal in the rotation in a big series.”

In his career against the Royals, Skubal is 2-9 with a 5.05 ERA in 14 appearances.

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Why Bet on Kansas City?

The Royals are 30-5 since the All-Star Break when allowing 5 runs or fewer, but 0-19 when allowing at least 6. Kansas City’s pace of 87 wins would be 31 more than they had last season (56), which would match the 3rd-best improvement in the 162-game era (since 1961). The 87-win pace would match the record for wins by a team following a 100-loss season. The current standard (since 1900) is shared by the 1967 Cubs and 1989 Orioles, who won 87 games following 103 and 107-loss seasons, respectively.

Vinnie Pasquantino

No matter what happens here, the Royals have clinched the season series against the Tigers for the first time since 2021. Already missing excellent hitting first baseman Pasquantino likely for the rest of the season due to injury, Kansas City took another hit on Monday as former closer and current setup man James McArthur was pulled from the loss with elbow tightness and his season is likely over.

James McArthur

The 27-year-old McArthur still leads the club with 18 saves, though he’s since given up ninth-inning duties to deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg. That switch was borne both out of both Erceg’s excellence and a midseason rough patch for the hard-throwing McArthur. He has pitched primarily in a middle relief role since Erceg was acquired and has a 3.77 ERA in 14 1/3 innings in that span. The Royals are also without deadline pickup Hunter Harvey (back strain) and veteran free-agent signees Will Smith (back spasms) and Chris Stratton (flexor strain) in that bullpen.

With McArthur landing on the injured list, the Royals recalled right-hander Steven Cruz, who retired all 10 batters he faced in 3 appearances during his only appearances with the big league club this season. In 47 outings with Triple-A Omaha, Cruz is 6-1 with 3 saves, a 3.33 ERA (19 ER in 51.1 IP) and 56 strikeouts.

Alec Marsh

It’s right-hander starting on Wednesday. Marsh (8-8, 4.52 ERA) earned the win last Friday over the Pirates, allowing one run on five hits and two walks over 5.1 innings. He struck out 11. Marsh was dominant, holding Pittsburgh to a lone sixth-inning run while matching a career high in Ks. Marsh previously struck out 11 in a start against the Rays last year. His high this year had been eight.

In order for his curveball to be effective, Marsh has to “rip it in front,” he said, making him get back into his north-south delivery and be in the zone. And the curveball was effective Friday vs. the Bucs. In total, the Pirates took 43 swings against Marsh and whiffed 18 times (42%), and he got another 18 called strikes for a called strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) of 38 percent.

“It’s been my best pitch over the last couple months,” Marsh said. “Being able to throw it down for swing and miss to both righties and lefties. It’s been an equalizer pitch for me, not just relying on the sweeper.”

The mighty, masterful Marsh.

Alec Marsh tied his career-high with 11 strikeouts tonight. pic.twitter.com/ZtndIEYXkL
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) September 14, 2024

In three starts since he was recalled from Triple-A, Marsh has allowed six runs while logging 21 strikeouts across 15.1 innings. His ERA sits at 4.52 through 121.1 innings this season, with a 1.23 WHIP and 116:36 K:BB. He will likely get one more start before Michael Lorenzen (hamstring) comes off the IL. Marsh has faced Detroit once this year, getting the win at home on May 21, allowing three runs over six innings with five strikeouts.

Tigers at Royals Info

When: Wednesday, 7:40 PM ET
Where: Kauffman Stadium
Pitchers (away/home): Tarik Skubal/Alec Marsh
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/